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Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

cleantechnica.com

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Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#201

Post by dweinus »

thelastgallon wrote: post #196
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is daytime energy supposed to get 100x cheaper and still allow solar, which only generates during the daytime, to recover its costs? Unless you mean for the nighttime price to increase by a huge factor, but then how would that out-compete existing technologies for generation at night?

Four quick solutions, there may be more! (1) Transmission: When it is night somewhere, it is daytime somewhere else. All you need is transmission lines. Shipping electricity is so much easier than shipping fossil fuels, 40% of all shipping[1]: https://qz.com/2113243/forty-percent-of-all-shipping-cargo-c... . With vertical panels we can capture power early mornings and evenings, reducing the duck curve, but also for t…

We need solutions, likely a mix of them, because they all come with challenges:

1) Transmission takes time and $$$ to build (especially to get the land). Maintenance ain't cheap either. Longer transmission == greater losses.

2) CSP requires a specialized site and equipment, with limited generation/storage and greater losses

3) EVs as batteries to back up the grid externalizes battery wear to car owners. To compensate owners would probably cost more than just building dedicated battery back up on the grid (which would be much more reliable). This idea has never made sense to me.

4) Wind is a great resource, but also variable. There will be times when the wind doesn't blow at night.

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#202

Post by matthewdgreen »

Retric wrote: post #191
matthewdgreen wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is where energy things are happening, both on the generation side and on the industrial consumption side. The US feels like a quiet backwater in comparison.

Only in terms of scale not innovation. China still gets most of its elected from coal and hydro. They are still building a little nuclear and lots of coal alongside all that wind and solar.

In this case scale is the better part of innovation. The people dominating future PV, wind, and battery industries are going to be the ones implementing the “learning curve” that brings prices down through continuous manufacturing improvement. The folks who innovate the most will be the ones deploying the new terawatts of generation, building factories that operate on intermittent and geographically-dependent energy sources, and learning to operate a massive continent-wide renewable grid. There’s this funny idea that you can keep your technical advantage doing research while another country is actually doing the things, but I don’t think that’s ever been the way the world works.

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#203

Post by danans »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #148
danans wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Then you pick the low-hanging fruit and start trying to find a solution to power heat pumps in the winter at night and it's... not as easy. But it's also not impossible, especially as heat pump efficiency keeps marching up in colder conditions and stationary battery prices keep going down with new chemistries that trade off energy density for cost. Heck, if batteries are still too expensive, we could even use resid…

Storage isn't just a bad fit for that because it's expensive, though. What do you do when it runs down, because it's unusually cold or you have an extended period of low generation, or both? Now it's 20 degrees below freezing and you have no heat.

> What do you do when it runs down, because it's unusually cold or you have an extended period of low generation, or both?

I'm not talking about going off grid, just energy price arbitrage. You still have the option of pulling power from the grid to heat your house, although potentially at a higher price.

With storage, you could also coordinate grid loads during the night so that at any given time the total load on the grid doesn't exceed the grid's generation capacity.

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#204

Post by adrianN »

opo wrote: post #199
bilsbie wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve always said this! Make daytime energy 100x cheaper and the market will respond. Appliances will start building in batteries, behaviors will change , and who knows what else the market will come up with.

Who has ever said that solar/wind or any other form of power is going to be 100 times cheaper than what we have now?

I think your parent is not comparing to right now, but is comparing times of abundance with times of scarcity.

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#205

Post by adrianN »

klabb3 wrote: post #200
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can replace a significant proportion of the grid with intermittent generation without any trouble. Using solar for the air conditioning load in the summer is perfect. Use whatever you want to charge electric car batteries because they're batteries and most cars are parked >90% of the time. You can can't shift 100% of the load based on time of day through pricing, but you can do a non-trivial amount. Then you pick…

> You can replace a significant proportion of the grid with intermittent generation without any trouble. Yes, in some locations. That’s a no brainer and where it’s economical it’s already happening. But unpredictable supply particularly needs on-demand energy. Nuclear can’t respond quickly, so if you don’t have hydro you’re likely left with gas. > Use whatever you want to charge electric car batteries because they're…

For short term unpredictable demand it is likely that batteries will outcompete gas in the next couple of years.

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#206

Post by epistasis »

hgomersall wrote: post #145
zackmorris wrote: post #85

Just so we have some numbers: $0.41 per watt utility-scale solar panel cost in 2020 ($0.17-$0.30 by 2030): https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/articles/2030-solar-cost-t... Cost projections (note the 2019 upswing where market forces and installation costs exceeded solar panel cost): https://www.solar.com/learn/solar-panel-cost/ $480/kWh utility-scale battery cost (falling by 32% to $326/kwH by 2030): https://www.energy…

I'm suspicious of those numbers. I personally can build a home scale battery storage system for around 280£/kWh. As in, I can go and buy the parts to do that and put it together. I can't believe they can't already do it cheaper at grid scale. That said, it might well be it's as easy to buy at small scale as at grid scale currently.

We are in a weird space right now where individuals can get super cheap batteries and inverters, but what's getting installed for grid scale is somewhat more expensive and meant to be cycled fully daily 5000-8000 times. Residential is much less likely to see discharges as deep and frequent as the large grid installs.

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#207

Post by epistasis »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #114

solar is 10x cheaper than nuclear generation, but storage is 100x more expensive than nuclear. Need a massive change in our understanding of storage costs to go 100% renewable.

> storage is 100x more expensive than nuclear.

Please don't make things up out of thin air. Storage is cheaper than nuclear.

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#208

Post by adrianN »

collinmcnulty wrote: post #138
londons_explore wrote: post #57

The real question is will growth of solar push electricity prices down enough that fossil plants get decommissioned early because they are no longer sufficiently profitable?

Almost certainly, assuming the growth of solar occurs as stated. The real tipping point is the fuel-only operating cost of a given plant, which is a function of the plant's efficiency and the price of its fuel.

Don't forget the CO2 price.

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#209

Post by Retric »

matthewdgreen wrote: post #202
Retric wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only in terms of scale not innovation. China still gets most of its elected from coal and hydro. They are still building a little nuclear and lots of coal alongside all that wind and solar.

In this case scale is the better part of innovation. The people dominating future PV, wind, and battery industries are going to be the ones implementing the “learning curve” that brings prices down through continuous manufacturing improvement. The folks who innovate the most will be the ones deploying the new terawatts of generation, building factories that operate on intermittent and geographically-dependent energy…

Cost competitive panels are manufactured inside and outside of China. PV already reached a point where panel costs aren’t the majority of grid scale instillation costs cutting their costs in half just doesn’t change much.

Managing the grid when your dependent on PV not just feeding in a trivial amount you can make up from other sources is the uncharted territory.

Re: Solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

#210

Post by KptMarchewa »

datameta wrote: post #7
KptMarchewa wrote: post #5

Sadly, wind has much better capacity factor, and works during nights and winter.

According to the charts, battery storage seems to be growing roughly in parity.

Battery storage does not help with seasonal differences.
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