I think the opposite -- that oil is one of the larger factors that endangers global security.
Exactly what I was thinking when I read the headline. The oil industry has been a historic disaster for global security, including the ecosystem.
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US oil lobby launches ad campaign to promote oil as 'vital' to global security
41–50 of 88 posts
Re: US oil lobby launches ad campaign to promote oil as 'vital' to global security
#42One thing is true: U.S. natural gas production was critical for EU survival after Russian gas cuts and is still critical for survival of EU support for Ukraine. If not the increase in U.S. supplies, EU won't hold out for long having to buy gas elsewhere as prices won't at all be affordable. I don't think it makes sense intentionally suppressing fossil fuels production. The way renewables are developing now, they'll s…
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Re: US oil lobby launches ad campaign to promote oil as 'vital' to global security
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
What happens when the wealth ends for the Middle East? That could go very very badly. It’s going to happen though. Even if climate change and pollution and all other ill effects didn’t exist we’d run out at some point and be in the same place.
Depends, United Arab Emirates nowadays makes more money from tourism than oil. Oil is like 1% of their GDP. Climate change is accelerated, but it’s a natural process. We are literally still in Ice Age, just in interglacial period.
One of the things keeping Saudi Arabia together is oil welfare payments. If that ever goes away, things could unravel quickly.
Re: US oil lobby launches ad campaign to promote oil as 'vital' to global security
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
So long as the EU is more or less aligned with the US and the Suez Canal exists, the Middle East as a flashpoint is not going anywhere.
Right now, most container sea traffic is going around Cape Horn rather than risking the Red Sea. China is working on the Belt and Road scheme to move container traffic from China to Europe to rail.
*Cape of Good Hope, they are going around Africa
Re: US oil lobby launches ad campaign to promote oil as 'vital' to global security
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
So long as the EU is more or less aligned with the US and the Suez Canal exists, the Middle East as a flashpoint is not going anywhere.
Right now, most container sea traffic is going around Cape Horn rather than risking the Red Sea. China is working on the Belt and Road scheme to move container traffic from China to Europe to rail.
The Belt and Road maps I've seen are pretty low resolution, are they still going through Iran? Because I'd think that counts as "middle east", even if it's not the Suez.
Re: US oil lobby launches ad campaign to promote oil as 'vital' to global security
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
What happens when the wealth ends for the Middle East? That could go very very badly. It’s going to happen though. Even if climate change and pollution and all other ill effects didn’t exist we’d run out at some point and be in the same place.
Depends, United Arab Emirates nowadays makes more money from tourism than oil. Oil is like 1% of their GDP. Climate change is accelerated, but it’s a natural process. We are literally still in Ice Age, just in interglacial period.
From every report I have seen, oil extraction is at least 30% of the economy.
Re: US oil lobby launches ad campaign to promote oil as 'vital' to global security
#47I think the opposite -- that oil is one of the larger factors that endangers global security.
... I mean to I guess that is -- without oil we'd have an order of magnitude less food and no means of waging war at scale. So the world would be more "secure" in the sense that we probably couldn't wage war across the globe. That said, we'd be starving and far more isolated.
I think I roughly guess if you're using electrolyticly generated hydrogen to make ammonia it'd take about 10kwh/kg of electricity. If you can get wholesale renuabes at $0.05/kwh that'd be about $0.50/kg energy cost.
Wholesale ammonia prices are about $0.30/kg.
A lot of that wholesale price is natural gas. You can see the relation here.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=52358
If you dig at industry press releases you see a lot of interest in using renewables to generate hydrogen to make ammonia. Which says the above is on track that it's economic. And also shields manufacturers from natural gas price swings. Not to mention you can locate plants anywhere.
Re: US oil lobby launches ad campaign to promote oil as 'vital' to global security
#48All the more reason to not need oil anymore.
Re: US oil lobby launches ad campaign to promote oil as 'vital' to global security
#49Are they wrong? I would say they're right, oil is in fact vital to global security.
They are most definitely correct. If, right now, all oil stopped flowing, many people would die. Oil is needed for bulk transport across the seas, in the air, and over land. It is needed for agricultural production, and a decent amount of electrical generation. Adding to that, almost all war machinery requires it in rather large quantities.
Then, there's plastic. I hate the use of plastics for many things, but there are some things for which it is absolutely essential. For example, there are many medical uses of plastics that save lives and restore bodily function.
Re: US oil lobby launches ad campaign to promote oil as 'vital' to global security
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
What happens when the wealth ends for the Middle East? That could go very very badly. It’s going to happen though. Even if climate change and pollution and all other ill effects didn’t exist we’d run out at some point and be in the same place.
Depends, United Arab Emirates nowadays makes more money from tourism than oil. Oil is like 1% of their GDP. Climate change is accelerated, but it’s a natural process. We are literally still in Ice Age, just in interglacial period.
The UAE has the potential to become another Singapore if they want to. But to make that work they'll have to reach a mutual accommodation with Iran while also not pissing off their other allies too much. It's going to be difficult to thread that needle.