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What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

stat.berkeley.edu

31–40 of 199 posts

Re: What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

#31

Picking a random integer between 1 and 1 million.

I am seeing this same/similar comment on this thread which has been posted by three quite new accounts. Is this quite normal on HN now or is it some bots farming engagement? Btw, I'm a new member here, knew about HN since a long time but never bothered to make an account up until now

Re: What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

#32

> "Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one. But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten." -- Terry Pratchett Making fun of the fact that if someone says "it's a million-to-one chance, but it might just work!" in fiction, you know it's going to work. In _Guards! Guards!_ this is taken to the point that…

I was thinking of loading the dice in some CRPG so thar if some event has exactly 1/1,000,000 chance then resolve it as if it was 9/10.

Re: What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

#33

Picking a random integer between 1 and 1 million.

I am seeing this same/similar comment on this thread which has been posted by three quite new accounts. Is this quite normal on HN now or is it some bots farming engagement? Btw, I'm a new member here, knew about HN since a long time but never bothered to make an account up until now

Looks like one old-ish account with a number of submissions and comments, and two very-similarly-named copycats that are getting voted down to oblivion. Not very common here, but it happens.

Re: What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

#34
post #18
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you mean, after picking a million numbers, then every number in the range should have been picked exactly once?

Definitely not this. That wouldn't be random at all. For example, after picking 999,999 numbers you would be able to predict the next number with certainty. What it means is that every time you select a number, every number in the range has an equal probability of being selected.

Which means that there must be more state in the generator than is output as a random number; otherwise each time number X was produced then number Y would follow it. (Perhaps obvious, but I like stating the obvious.)

Re: What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

#36

Picking a random integer between 1 and 1 million.

I am seeing this same/similar comment on this thread which has been posted by three quite new accounts. Is this quite normal on HN now or is it some bots farming engagement? Btw, I'm a new member here, knew about HN since a long time but never bothered to make an account up until now

>Is this quite normal on HN now or is it some bots farming engagement?

As you can see, my account is not new. I thought the comment will be funny. Not every comment should be terribly ingenious, long thought and crafted to show people how smart the commenter is. As a commenter you have the right to be spontaneous.

Re: What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

#38
I think getting killed by a meteorite is in that order of magnitude.

But it is a bit of a tricky question. Because you can get hit by a small space rock, it has already happened but it is extremely rare, much less than 1 in a million, and I don't know if there is a record of anyone dying from it. But there is also a small chance of a massive impact killing billions in our lifetime, and intermediate scale events like if the Tunguska event happened in a populated area.

Re: What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am seeing this same/similar comment on this thread which has been posted by three quite new accounts. Is this quite normal on HN now or is it some bots farming engagement? Btw, I'm a new member here, knew about HN since a long time but never bothered to make an account up until now

Looks like one old-ish account with a number of submissions and comments, and two very-similarly-named copycats that are getting voted down to oblivion. Not very common here, but it happens.

One of them seems to have deleted the comment just as I commented about this. Also downvoting is an option? It doesn't seem to be visible here.

Re: What has a 1 in a million chance? (2010)

#40

Being Dealt a Royal Flush in Poker. NO but pretty close. Being Born on February 29th. NO

Royal flush in poker is more like 1 in 6493. ;-)

How did you get there? GP is talking about being dealt it, I think you've calculated the chance of it occurring in a round or something?

Wikipedia has GP's at 649739, so yeah 'almost' a million, roughly speaking. 4 / ((52 nCr 5) - (4 nCr 1)). (Four suits, one way to do it in each suit, deck of 52, five card hand.)

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