A rocket a day keeps the high costs away (1993)
fourmilab.ch
A rocket a day keeps the high costs away (1993)
1–10 of 99 posts
Re: A rocket a day keeps the high costs away (1993)
#2Remarkably prescient. Any public knowledge whether Musk has cited this as an inspiration? This arstechnica article feels like a direct descendent:
https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/01/elon-musk-spacex-needs...
Re: A rocket a day keeps the high costs away (1993)
#3Remarkably prescient. Any public knowledge whether Musk has cited this as an inspiration? This arstechnica article feels like a direct descendent: https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/01/elon-musk-spacex-needs...
It's not really that novel.
Re: A rocket a day keeps the high costs away (1993)
#4Remarkably prescient. Any public knowledge whether Musk has cited this as an inspiration? This arstechnica article feels like a direct descendent: https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/01/elon-musk-spacex-needs...
It's not really that novel.
the novelty is how to handle such scale.
Sure, if we build a million rockets it'll be cheaper, but how do we USE those rockets and get funding at "relative peace time". SpaceX's real innovation was starlink in allowing it to "Soak up" excess production. Besides the obvious of reusability, which wasn't that "Obvious" considering the temperatures of reentry.
Re: A rocket a day keeps the high costs away (1993)
#5Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not really that novel.
the novelty is how to handle such scale. Sure, if we build a million rockets it'll be cheaper, but how do we USE those rockets and get funding at "relative peace time". SpaceX's real innovation was starlink in allowing it to "Soak up" excess production. Besides the obvious of reusability, which wasn't that "Obvious" considering the temperatures of reentry.
> SpaceX's real innovation was starlink in allowing it to "Soak up" excess production
SpaceX had a lot of real innovations. Starlink is one of them, but it’s not in the top five.
Re: A rocket a day keeps the high costs away (1993)
#6According to Ashlee Vance's "When The Heavens Went On Sale" this was the inspiration for Astra (the book links to this same article in the relevant chapter). The company hoped to produce and launch >300 rockets a year without re-use. The goal was to get economy of scale in manufacturing.
Part of the business plan assumed that people would be using the rocket to launch replacement satellites for constellations, and so it wouldn't be such a big deal if a rocket failed every now and then. This would let them use automotive grade parts in some areas as opposed to aerospace grade and reduce costs.
However, it turned out that customers were actually using their rocket to launch prototype satellites and other one-off satellites where failure was actually a big deal. Long story short Astra did manage to make it to orbit, but is unlikely to survive into the future.
Re: A rocket a day keeps the high costs away (1993)
#7Earlier quoted context omitted.
the novelty is how to handle such scale. Sure, if we build a million rockets it'll be cheaper, but how do we USE those rockets and get funding at "relative peace time". SpaceX's real innovation was starlink in allowing it to "Soak up" excess production. Besides the obvious of reusability, which wasn't that "Obvious" considering the temperatures of reentry.
> SpaceX's real innovation was starlink in allowing it to "Soak up" excess production SpaceX had a lot of real innovations. Starlink is one of them, but it’s not in the top five.
Might be referring to top "business plan innovations".
Re: A rocket a day keeps the high costs away (1993)
#8Earlier quoted context omitted.
> SpaceX's real innovation was starlink in allowing it to "Soak up" excess production SpaceX had a lot of real innovations. Starlink is one of them, but it’s not in the top five.
Might be referring to top "business plan innovations".
> Might be referring to top "business plan innovations"
No. 1 and No. 2 are positing a private space company and mass manufacturing. Those are, hands down, SpaceX's transformational business plan innovations.
COTS, No. 3, is a business-engineering hybrid. Using NASA funds as stepping stones, versus treating them as the ends, No. 4. Maybe we can slot Starlink into No. 5, but it wasn’t unpredictable; telecom was always the moneymaker in space. (I’d argue published pricing with online ordering nudges it out.)
Re: A rocket a day keeps the high costs away (1993)
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
> SpaceX's real innovation was starlink in allowing it to "Soak up" excess production SpaceX had a lot of real innovations. Starlink is one of them, but it’s not in the top five.
Might be referring to top "business plan innovations".
Starlink isn't even a new idea. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teledesic
As always, ideas are cheap. SpaceX is doing well because it's actually managing to successfully implement lots of old fantastical ideas.
Re: A rocket a day keeps the high costs away (1993)
#10John Walker is also an author of The Hacker's Diet: https://www.fourmilab.ch/hackdiet/
While perhaps a bit outdated by modern standards, general principles are sound and it's still a very fun read in itself since he includes some general reflections in the text.