Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US • Hacker News Board

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#371

Post by mixmastamyk » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 8:28 AM UTC

data-ottawa wrote: post #143

jitl wrote: post #89

The electric offerings from most companies just don’t seem “there” yet. I don’t want a Tesla because AirPlay and adjustable aircon grates are non-negotiable for me, but the alternatives just don’t seem like a good bet yet. Hyundai is compelling, but most brands are offering electrified versions of non-EV platforms. An EV platform with low drag is much better, but outside of Tesla and Hyundai no one seems to be shippi…

This is where I am. It's great that we're getting more competition, but since it's more expensive R&D it's all geared for top of market. I had looked at a plugin hybrid but the actual range of the electric engine was underwhelming. I'm also curious how the EV situation will play out in Canada, it gets damn cold here. How much does that reduce the advertised range on top of running a heater?

Car can warm itself in the morning on schedule while charging. Needs to do it anyway for the batteries.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#372

Post by vegardx » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 8:31 AM UTC

throwitaway222 wrote: post #65

rappatic wrote: post #60

The article talks about range concerns as if they're simply incorrect or ill-founded: > Niedermeyer said that while an electric car can meet most people's driving needs, it struggles with edge cases like road trips because of the need to recharge. Since Americans have been promised a one-to-one substitute for their gas cars, this seems like a failure; an EV should be able to do everything a gas car can. This idea per…

This. I'm not sure why plugin hybrids are not a thing.... actually, I don't even want a plugin "hybrid" I want an EV that never uses the ICE unless you run out of power, then it's just an ICE vehicle entirely... In other words I want something they will never build.

You get very little benefit with a plugin hybrid compared to just a hybrid or battery-electric vehicle. You have a very complex drive train, double the amount of motors, fuel tank, batteries, you get the idea. What you end up with is usually a very inefficient vehicle in all scenarios.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#373

Post by hippari2 » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 8:36 AM UTC

rappatic wrote: post #60

The article talks about range concerns as if they're simply incorrect or ill-founded: > Niedermeyer said that while an electric car can meet most people's driving needs, it struggles with edge cases like road trips because of the need to recharge. Since Americans have been promised a one-to-one substitute for their gas cars, this seems like a failure; an EV should be able to do everything a gas car can. This idea per…

Those 7% is ultimately what makes owning a car enjoyable. I have never heard anyone talks about how fun their commute is.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#374

Post by pipes » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 8:36 AM UTC

lukas099 wrote: post #78

rappatic wrote: post #60

The article talks about range concerns as if they're simply incorrect or ill-founded: > Niedermeyer said that while an electric car can meet most people's driving needs, it struggles with edge cases like road trips because of the need to recharge. Since Americans have been promised a one-to-one substitute for their gas cars, this seems like a failure; an EV should be able to do everything a gas car can. This idea per…

People focus too much on edge cases when making life decisions, imo. > We need a dining room for when we have parties (has a party once every 2 years; room sits empty 99% of the time) > We need a guest bedroom (guests could stay at the hotel down the street) > I need a pickup truck (driver is an accountant who maybe picks up a couple bags of mulch from Lowes twice a year) I'm glad I live in a prosperous society where…

Why is it annoying? What you need is very subjective. Before I had a family I had no idea I'd want a guest room because I'd want extended family to stay. And when they stay in a hotel they spend way less time with us. I'm glad I live in a society where I can choose to spend my money and decide the trade offs for myself.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#375

Post by Xelbair » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 8:42 AM UTC

lukas099 wrote: post #78

rappatic wrote: post #60

The article talks about range concerns as if they're simply incorrect or ill-founded: > Niedermeyer said that while an electric car can meet most people's driving needs, it struggles with edge cases like road trips because of the need to recharge. Since Americans have been promised a one-to-one substitute for their gas cars, this seems like a failure; an EV should be able to do everything a gas car can. This idea per…

People focus too much on edge cases when making life decisions, imo. > We need a dining room for when we have parties (has a party once every 2 years; room sits empty 99% of the time) > We need a guest bedroom (guests could stay at the hotel down the street) > I need a pickup truck (driver is an accountant who maybe picks up a couple bags of mulch from Lowes twice a year) I'm glad I live in a prosperous society where…

why?

It doesn't hurt anyone, and they do pay premium for that. It's just that they have different value system than you do.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#376

Post by audunw » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 8:42 AM UTC

rdtsc wrote: post #66

> But an analysis from CarGurus found that EV prices were still 28% higher than gas-vehicle prices on average. To me that is bonkers. When EVs were becoming popular, I was expecting to see super cheap, under $10k vehicles. That was the promise: forget about all the IC complicated gears, alternators, transmission, fuel pumps and imagine getting a motor and batteries, what could be simpler!". But no, we ended up with m…

The problem is that if they made a sub $10k vehicle now, "everyone" would buy it. That sounds great, but there's simply not enough battery factories to make the batteries for that many vehicles. The demand for expensive vehicles is still high enough that most of the EV battery factory output of the world can go to those expensive high margin vehicles, so of course the car makers haven't focused on low cost.

There are several dozen giga-scale battery factories coming online in the next few years. That should be a huge enabler to make cheap cars. Once they start to flood the market, the car makers will have to make budget vehicles to stay relevant.

There are also still a whole bunch of expensive R&D work still going on to optimize EV cars. Look at the cyber truck with its 48V and ethernet architecture. It made sense to launch that with an expensive vehicle so they can get a return on their R&D investment sooner. But now that they have it, they can apply it to a budget car and that should help lower cost by reducing the amount of copper wires needed.

Feels like everything is coming together for an explosion in EV growth. We're at the bottom of the ramp of the technology S-curve (logistics curve). We're in what feels a bit like a "false start" phase, but this phase is important for ironing out the kinks for the true mass-scale rollout.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#377

Post by intended » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 8:42 AM UTC

lukas099 wrote: post #78

rappatic wrote: post #60

The article talks about range concerns as if they're simply incorrect or ill-founded: > Niedermeyer said that while an electric car can meet most people's driving needs, it struggles with edge cases like road trips because of the need to recharge. Since Americans have been promised a one-to-one substitute for their gas cars, this seems like a failure; an EV should be able to do everything a gas car can. This idea per…

People focus too much on edge cases when making life decisions, imo. > We need a dining room for when we have parties (has a party once every 2 years; room sits empty 99% of the time) > We need a guest bedroom (guests could stay at the hotel down the street) > I need a pickup truck (driver is an accountant who maybe picks up a couple bags of mulch from Lowes twice a year) I'm glad I live in a prosperous society where…

People are people, changing "X" is like tyring to change the weather.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#378

Post by gniv » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 8:42 AM UTC

lukas099 wrote: post #78

rappatic wrote: post #60

The article talks about range concerns as if they're simply incorrect or ill-founded: > Niedermeyer said that while an electric car can meet most people's driving needs, it struggles with edge cases like road trips because of the need to recharge. Since Americans have been promised a one-to-one substitute for their gas cars, this seems like a failure; an EV should be able to do everything a gas car can. This idea per…

People focus too much on edge cases when making life decisions, imo. > We need a dining room for when we have parties (has a party once every 2 years; room sits empty 99% of the time) > We need a guest bedroom (guests could stay at the hotel down the street) > I need a pickup truck (driver is an accountant who maybe picks up a couple bags of mulch from Lowes twice a year) I'm glad I live in a prosperous society where…

You're getting flak for this, but this kind of thinking is prevalent in Europe from what I see. Especially the car part. Almost everybody drives small cars. Pickup trucks that don't have a company name on them are as rare as exotic cars.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#379

Post by bob1029 » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 8:45 AM UTC

I think the central problem for me boils down to some fairly essential math.

When you are fueling up a gasoline vehicle, you are drawing something like 10-20 megawatts of effective power for the duration. And remember, this is pretty much any gas station. Now, what kind of power output can I expect at the highest end supercharging station under the best possible circumstances?

The solution seems to be hybrid where you have options. Certainly, using electrical charging allows you to manage the prime mover's carbon emissions better, but you'd be able to dramatically improve adoption if you had a backup plan for less enthusiastic or diligent customers. I suspect most consumers don't have "minimize carbon emissions" set as their #1 priority when purchasing or operating an automobile.

If we really wanted to, how dense could we make a gasoline generator? I know we can make the actual generator incredibly tiny. What about the engine? What if we are hedging for the "just in case" and aren't managing full-time emissions? Remember - most consumers just need a psychological safety blanket. You are probably never going to run this thing.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#380

Post by sitkack » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 8:49 AM UTC

I have an aging 2011 Nissan Leaf with a realistic 55 mile range. I charge it at home with a 15a extension cord. I drive it every day. Occasionally I give it a boost charge at charging station.

I am in Seattle. I can get to Issaquah, Bainbridge, Everett, Tacoma and back no problem. If I had a _modern_ electric car with a 150 mile range, I could drive to Vancouver BC or Portland instead of taking the train. I don't think electric cars should have a range over 200 miles.

Gas cars should be taxed out of existence.