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Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

businessinsider.com

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Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#81

Post by femto »

charcircuit wrote: post #55
femto wrote: post #47

Why don't electric cars use replaceable battery modules with a standard form factor? Advantages would include: 1) It allows the battery to be easily replaced as the car gets older. 2) With a suitable generic form factor, it would allow batteries to be upgraded as technology changes. 3) It would allow people to only populate enough battery slots for their daily needs. Communing to work: you only need to insert a few b…

I am not sure there are many people who want to swap out batteries when they weigh over 1000 pounds. Inserting a battery would require something to help carry and insert it which makes it have enormous user friction which makes it a non starter for most people. Not many people even want to swap out phone batteries despite those batteries being easy to carry.

Not the entire battery. Something in between an individual cell and an entire battery. Small enough to provide practical manual handling and some granularity in total capacity. Big enough that a reasonable number of them add up to a full battery.

Maintenance would be similar to cars today, in that those who change their own oil might be inclined handle their own batteries, whilst those who get a mechanic to change oil might get a mechanic to manage their batteries.

If batteries are cheap enough and long lived enough it's not an issue, but right now battery cost and longevity is a limiting factor. Not everybody replaces their car after a few years. The average car age is over 10 years [1], so there are plenty of cars out there much older than 10 years.

Maybe that's what is behind the sales growth slowdown? Those who replace their cars regularly (fleets) and don't care about battery longevity, are buying. Those who keep their cars for longer are hesitating, limiting the market.

Edit:

It seems like EVs already use a cell/module/pack hierarchy [2]. There's hope yet, if a particular module type emerges as a defacto standard.

[1] https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-trans...

[2] https://www.secondlife-evbatteries.com/collections/ev-batter...

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#82

Post by neogodless »

rappatic wrote: post #60

The article talks about range concerns as if they're simply incorrect or ill-founded: > Niedermeyer said that while an electric car can meet most people's driving needs, it struggles with edge cases like road trips because of the need to recharge. Since Americans have been promised a one-to-one substitute for their gas cars, this seems like a failure; an EV should be able to do everything a gas car can. This idea per…

I think the article does speak towards this somewhat. For example:

> The focus on increasing EVs' range is contributing to their relatively high prices. Unlike with gas cars, the more you pay for an EV, the more range you can expect to receive.

That's partially true. The most fuel efficient vehicles have traditionally been the cheapest cars, those given small engines and the least amount of heavy noise dampening and luxury items. But it's not always true that paying more for an EV will get you more range. $70-90k for a F150 Lightning will get you less range than a smaller, less expensive Hyundai Ioniq 6. Within classes / makes, though, it's generally true that you pay more for more range, which is a flip from ICE. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/longest-range-evs-2023/

> EVs can be an important part of the fight against the climate crisis, but America's EV plan needs to lean into what these cars do well: short daily trips that can be taken in small, affordable cars. People who frequently take long trips can take advantage of hybrid cars.

Hybrids by themselves already make a good deal of sense. While some may argue that the complexity could reduce reliability, the Prius has actually been one of the most reliable vehicles you can buy. Maybe your daily driver does not need to be your "everything for every situation" vehicle.

But this is an old argument we'll likely never win against the American car buying public. SUVs (and increasingly large ones) already do almost everything you could ever need, even if the vast majority of the time, all they do is move a single person around. And the same can be said for those huge 4 door trucks (with small beds).

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#83

Post by protocolture »

rappatic wrote: post #60

The article talks about range concerns as if they're simply incorrect or ill-founded: > Niedermeyer said that while an electric car can meet most people's driving needs, it struggles with edge cases like road trips because of the need to recharge. Since Americans have been promised a one-to-one substitute for their gas cars, this seems like a failure; an EV should be able to do everything a gas car can. This idea per…

Yep. I have a Diesel. My average trip length will be roughly 60km. However, 4 - 8 times a year I need to go much further. Last year a single round trip for work was roughly 2200 km. And that was through extreme rural environments. The vast majority of places I stopped to refill the vehicle did not have electric service.

Average trips being serviceable doesnt help me. I dont buy a vehicle assuming it will work on average, I buy a vehicle knowing in will serve every one of my use cases.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#84

Post by neogodless »

camel_gopher wrote: post #64
rappatic wrote: post #60

The article talks about range concerns as if they're simply incorrect or ill-founded: > Niedermeyer said that while an electric car can meet most people's driving needs, it struggles with edge cases like road trips because of the need to recharge. Since Americans have been promised a one-to-one substitute for their gas cars, this seems like a failure; an EV should be able to do everything a gas car can. This idea per…

Sounds like the use case is perfect for a hybrid which does 30 miles electric.

I think that's why the article suggests exactly that.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#85

Post by drfuchs »

throwitaway222 wrote: post #65
rappatic wrote: post #60

The article talks about range concerns as if they're simply incorrect or ill-founded: > Niedermeyer said that while an electric car can meet most people's driving needs, it struggles with edge cases like road trips because of the need to recharge. Since Americans have been promised a one-to-one substitute for their gas cars, this seems like a failure; an EV should be able to do everything a gas car can. This idea per…

This. I'm not sure why plugin hybrids are not a thing.... actually, I don't even want a plugin "hybrid" I want an EV that never uses the ICE unless you run out of power, then it's just an ICE vehicle entirely... In other words I want something they will never build.

Well, the discontinued Chevy Volt is just that: 50ish miles on electrons from the plug-in battery; only then a few hundred on a tank of gas via the ICE. So, no range anxiety, and you can likely commute on battery alone. Can’t imagine why they didn’t sell well; I like mine fine, and find I do only about 20% of my travel in gas-mode.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#86

Post by lukas099 »

TIPSIO wrote: post #59
TexanFeller wrote: post #15

I want an EV to be more reliable and save me more money in the long run. EVs start out ~10k more than the Corolla most people should buying. They then compromise the long term reliability and maintenance cost with high tech gee whiz features. I’d sooner have manual roll up windows than touch screen controlled air vents. When you integrate sensors and software controls into every little thing, we know those things wil…

I kind of agree actually on your cost points. It’s still a luxury purchase. I am a bit more conservative of a saver but feel priced out and sadly went ICE. If you qualify for the EV tax credit, I would argue the car is too expensive for your budget. If you don’t qualify barely, a brand new ICE vehicle is going to last years and be cheaper. Is it really worth it to push budget? If you way don’t qualify, definitely buy…

I thought hybrids were the cost-conscious choice currently?

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#87

Post by iknowstuff »

protocolture wrote: post #83
rappatic wrote: post #60

The article talks about range concerns as if they're simply incorrect or ill-founded: > Niedermeyer said that while an electric car can meet most people's driving needs, it struggles with edge cases like road trips because of the need to recharge. Since Americans have been promised a one-to-one substitute for their gas cars, this seems like a failure; an EV should be able to do everything a gas car can. This idea per…

Yep. I have a Diesel. My average trip length will be roughly 60km. However, 4 - 8 times a year I need to go much further. Last year a single round trip for work was roughly 2200 km. And that was through extreme rural environments. The vast majority of places I stopped to refill the vehicle did not have electric service. Average trips being serviceable doesnt help me. I dont buy a vehicle assuming it will work on aver…

Could you share an example of such a trip? Let's toss it into ABRP

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#88

Post by femto »

eichin wrote: post #80
femto wrote: post #47

Why don't electric cars use replaceable battery modules with a standard form factor? Advantages would include: 1) It allows the battery to be easily replaced as the car gets older. 2) With a suitable generic form factor, it would allow batteries to be upgraded as technology changes. 3) It would allow people to only populate enough battery slots for their daily needs. Communing to work: you only need to insert a few b…

10 years ago: "Better Place" burned through about $1B trying exactly that. Today: "Nio Power" has gotten a lot further, with more cars and a chain of robo-garages to do the swap in a couple of minutes. (Still a single unified module, but it's not clear anyone needs to manage several-hundred-pound modules just yet, maybe when it scales a bit more...)

I'm not thinking that battery replacement would be seen as a way of recharging or be done on the road. It would be infrequently done, when a change in capacity/technology is required or the module is worn out.

The interface specification could go beyond the electrical, including things such as heat removal.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#89

Post by jitl »

The electric offerings from most companies just don’t seem “there” yet. I don’t want a Tesla because AirPlay and adjustable aircon grates are non-negotiable for me, but the alternatives just don’t seem like a good bet yet. Hyundai is compelling, but most brands are offering electrified versions of non-EV platforms. An EV platform with low drag is much better, but outside of Tesla and Hyundai no one seems to be shipping an EV platform car in the $40k price range.

Then when it comes to plug in hybrids, Toyota RAV4 Prime looks great, but options from other makes look kinda like a joke with 20-30mi range and the ICE engine kicks in whenever you accelerate, or are similarly super expensive to the BEVs.

My plan is to just buy an ICE car now, and then sell it in a couple years once brands start fielding their second generation electric platforms with better economics, NACS (Tesla) plugs, and the infra catches up a bit.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#90

Post by talldatethrow »

I think EVs give me LESS range anxiety overall. In my gas car days, atleast once a month I was late for work or an event AND low on gas. Having to remember and think about getting gas was constantly on my mind because I have a pretty long commute.

With an electric car, I start every day, always, with a full tank. No matter how late I'm running, I know there won't be a surprise that I need gas in addition to being late.

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