Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree with the assessment that there are not many systems we can predict 10 years out with great confidence, specifically geopolitics. But I do not think I painted much of a picture of Tetlock's results. I read the article as concluding: let's stop predicting, it does not work. Let's start building. (After stating we cannot predict this, and we cannot predict that.) And I think Tetlock"s result contradict that, as…
I have a graph from "Expert Political Judgement" that I've kept on a cork board for over a decade. It's from page 55 in my edition. It charts "Objective Frequency" vs "Subjective Probability" It has three curves, Experts (people in Government, paid to make political assessments), Dilettantes (people who are well read, read NYT, WSJ and the like), and College Undergrads. The Expert and Dilettante lines are more or les…
Re: The forecasting fallacy (2020)
#71In October was this chaotic election of the Speaker of the House. Indeed, a few people following the news closely where quite good in predicting the outcome: https://marketwise.substack.com/p/speaker-election-interview...