All those lovely whispered Dutch accents that the Chinese will be deprived of.... Life is cruel sometimes.
I get ASML confused with ASMR and this isn't helping!
Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China
71–80 of 149 posts
Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China
#72I wonder if these actions will have the opposite effect. China will only more invest into producing their own. And I think we should not underestimate them. Could be good for competition though.
[flagged]
If you think about how difficult invading Ukraine has been for Russia, add in 100 miles of water for the most inexperienced navy in the world and it would likely be a blood bath.
I've always wondered if sinking a super carrier (group?) off your coastline is a great idea. They all carry a massive nuclear reactor onboard, I'm assuming the US has some pretty good technologies to mitigate these new Chinese carrier destroyer missiles, but all in all it seems like a disaster for everyone, especially the Chinese.
Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is just a delaying tactic. ASML is 5-10 years ahead in their technology so it will take a while for China to catch up. Which will grant the USA some extra time to build its own chip industry and not be dependent on two or three other countries.
Yes, though it's not only about delaying China so the US can catch up in semiconductors, but also about trying to delay China so that they miss their window of opportunity to invade Taiwan. Xi's aim is to reunify Taiwan with the mainland sometime in the 2020s. The US is trying to deter that using a comprehensive deterrence strategy - military, diplomatic, economic. Hence new US bases in northern Philippines, US suppo…
> Xi's aim is to reunify Taiwan with the mainland sometime in the 2020s
Do you have a source on that?
> AUKUS
The one that is supposed to result in submarines getting delivered sometime in the 2030s at the earliest? Hardly relevant for the 20s.
Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China
#74Earlier quoted context omitted.
I assume you'd deliver fuel to the Japanese Empire until they directly attacked you. Or maybe even later, after all deals have to be kept right?
I assume you would be fine with the US assets being frozen by the rest of the world for unprovoked aggression on Iraq?
Yeah. The 2003 one, 1991 was totally fine.
Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China
#75I wonder if these actions will have the opposite effect. China will only more invest into producing their own. And I think we should not underestimate them. Could be good for competition though.
As other have said this is already happening with Huawei and SMIC. And this is DUV, not EUV. China has already poured billions into it, and will continue to do so until it is somewhat cost neutral. 98% of smartphone outside of Apple and Samsung are Chinese brand. Their domestic market will be the first to use some of these chips, to use the term HN may have heard of it, To eat its own dog food. It isn't just Foundry…
Apple is not behind it. if anything apple and its taiwan subcontractors are actively moving away from Chinese suppliers. https://www.ft.com/content/1eee7956-a5be-4df0-a9a9-139c573c4.... https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Supply-Chain/Apple-s-Taiwa...
Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China
#76Earlier quoted context omitted.
Maybe they can develop their own high-tech fabrication technology to catch up, but I wonder how they will manage and accelerate the progress. The West has IP laws to incentivise R&D by the free market. In China, IP law enforcement is hit-and-miss. Small entities risk having their research getting used by others for free so it would be up to big entities that are well-connected to the centers of power to do the R&D. R…
This is less and less the case. IP protection in China has been improving for years.
> This is less and less the case. IP protection in China has been improving for years.
Not only are there persistent allegations of state-organized economic espionage and theft of intellectual property in violation of international trade agreements, it is not just limited to business. Academia and government also.
Chinese firms have been able to spend more on production, undercutting competitors, by skipping costly R&D because of IP theft.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegations_of_intellectual_pr...
In July, the OECD halted publication of China's science statistics citing "anomalies". Source: https://sciencebusiness.net/news/international-news/puzzle-s...
These anomalous statistics give us a small and partial peek into how much China claims to be spending on R&D vs. actual. There could be multiple interpretations of the anomalous R&D statistics, but it would be consistent with the allegations that China's explicit strategy is to steal IP to bolster local companies so that they can compete on the global scale.
Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
This site is American and thus patriotism plays a heavy role in the bias of comments. Usually, China is by default viewed in a negative light. It blinds people to the obvious fact that the US is heavily using anti free market tactics to end globalism while China is not acting as the aggressor here.
Every country in the world is supposed to work to further the interests of its citizens (in accordance with human rights, international agreements etc). Trying to appeal to some higher ideal of "free market" between countries is just silly. Did China and EU sign a comprehensive free trade agreement when I was asleep? (as Netherlands is an EU country and all cross border trade lawmaking is offloaded to the EU). If not…
> Trying to appeal to some higher ideal of "free market" between countries is just silly
Tell that to the US and Americans that don't shut up about it any time a country other than theirs does something even vaguely protectionist. It will never not be funny that Boeing pushed Bombardier over the edge with protectionist tariffs over state subsidies while simultaneously suing Airbus for getting state subsidies while simultaneously getting billions of state subsidies themselves.
Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China
#78I wonder if these actions will have the opposite effect. China will only more invest into producing their own. And I think we should not underestimate them. Could be good for competition though.
Unfortunately for the Chinese it's extremely tricky for even private capital to pick the winners in these spaces. I'd guess there is almost zero chance the Chinese government giving out free cash beat the market and even build the right stuff. Can they even build the light sources or optics for these devices. Don't Zeiss make the flattest mirrors ever made for this? There's probably hundreds of technologies that are…
They have already proved time and time again to be able to make gigantic leaps, some of those, completely on their own in the sector.
Pouring billions in the sector highly increases the chances of breakthrough technologies.
I personally think more competition in the space is good for everyone, albeit I'm not a fan of those trade wars, they accomplish little at the end of the day and they are funded with a lot of our taxes, we talking hundreds of euros/dollars per citizen for many years to subsidize this trade war we have little to gain from.
China will still get ASML equipment eventually if they will really want to by buying it from intermediate sources that may hide the operation for the right amount of $. China will be further motivated to reverse engineer the solutions and not share their own advancements in the sector if accomplished.
Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China
#79Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, though it's not only about delaying China so the US can catch up in semiconductors, but also about trying to delay China so that they miss their window of opportunity to invade Taiwan. Xi's aim is to reunify Taiwan with the mainland sometime in the 2020s. The US is trying to deter that using a comprehensive deterrence strategy - military, diplomatic, economic. Hence new US bases in northern Philippines, US suppo…
> Xi's aim is to reunify Taiwan with the mainland sometime in the 2020s Do you have a source on that? > AUKUS The one that is supposed to result in submarines getting delivered sometime in the 2030s at the earliest? Hardly relevant for the 20s.
AUKUS is about more than submarines -- that just happened to be the bit that hit the news.
There are specific provisions in AUKUS for AI & other technology partnerships.
Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China
#80Earlier quoted context omitted.
Taiwan is subject to the same equipment dependencies as China. They don’t make the machines, they import them from the Americans, Dutch, and Germans. If China took over Taiwan, they might be able to obtain Salem great semiconductor engineers (but they could just hire them already on work visas), maybe some plans for the next 2 or 3 years on chips they can’t fab without western equipment, but that’s it. Economically,…
As if the ASML machines were all that is needed for making cutting edge semiconductors. Why TSMC is in Taiwan and not in Denmark then?
|Why TSMC is in Taiwan and not in Denmark then?
Because the Taiwanese government paid for it to be there in the 80's