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Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

reuters.com

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Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#11

Post by Jensson »

DaedPsyker wrote: post #5
holoduke wrote: post #2

I wonder if these actions will have the opposite effect. China will only more invest into producing their own. And I think we should not underestimate them. Could be good for competition though.

While I'd say so, I don't think in the medium future it would have made much difference. China wants ensure control over strategic elements anyway. I suspect that the west has started betting on China intending to primarily rely on domestic production. Possibly to preempt the future, avoid companies getting entangled further, and slow China down even if just marginally, the west has settled this policy. I say west bu…

This will make the capitalist market in China invest into chipmaking, not just the government. That is a very different beast.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#12

Post by Aachen »

janmo wrote: post #6

The US is trying to starve China out of advanced semiconductors, not sure this will end well (For Taiwan).

Or anyone, including ourselves, if you look beyond the short term "they can't make fast chips for a few years". Even the elderly folk currently calling these shots will likely still be alive when the consequences materialise

Or maybe I'm overlooking something, I'm no macroeconomic strategist, just someone who was taught in high school that we learned from previous walled economies

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#13

Post by esafak »

rawrawrawrr wrote: post #3

> Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin on Tuesday urged the Netherlands "to be impartial, respect market principles and the law, take practical actions to protect the common interests of both countries and their companies and maintain the stability of international supply chains". This amuses me greatly. I had no idea China is explicitly pro-market capitalism.

America's respect for free market principles here doesn't amuse you too?

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#14

Post by jpgvm »

rawrawrawrr wrote: post #3

> Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin on Tuesday urged the Netherlands "to be impartial, respect market principles and the law, take practical actions to protect the common interests of both countries and their companies and maintain the stability of international supply chains". This amuses me greatly. I had no idea China is explicitly pro-market capitalism.

China is a more market orientated economy than most people would expect. There are large SOEs (state owned enterprises) sure but ultimately the whole point of "communism with Chinese characteristics" is to leverage market forces for efficiency where that makes sense.

China generally speaking is very free from a business/trade perspective, the exceptions to that are mostly related to finance or national security sensitive industries.

I would say the Chinese aspire to be more on the EU-esq end of the regulation spectrum than the US though. So over time they are trending towards more regulation even as they open up areas that were traditionally SOE only to private enterprise.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#15

Post by tom_boneahawk »

rawrawrawrr wrote: post #3

> Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin on Tuesday urged the Netherlands "to be impartial, respect market principles and the law, take practical actions to protect the common interests of both countries and their companies and maintain the stability of international supply chains". This amuses me greatly. I had no idea China is explicitly pro-market capitalism.

China has been explicitly pro-market for the last 40+ years (see: Deng's reforms)

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#16

Post by itsoktocry »

holoduke wrote: post #2

I wonder if these actions will have the opposite effect. China will only more invest into producing their own. And I think we should not underestimate them. Could be good for competition though.

>China will only more invest into producing their own

This is already happening. It doesn't take a brilliant mind to see the global supply chain isn't dependable (case in point, this license revocation).

But don't underestimate the difficulty in building these machines.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#17

Post by spdy »

holoduke wrote: post #2

I wonder if these actions will have the opposite effect. China will only more invest into producing their own. And I think we should not underestimate them. Could be good for competition though.

This is not a new problem, as they have been starved of high-end semiconductors for years already. However, catching up to the knowledge that ASML and Zeiss have regarding lithography machines is not an easy task to overcome.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#18

Post by HPsquared »

ahoka wrote: post #4
holoduke wrote: post #2

I wonder if these actions will have the opposite effect. China will only more invest into producing their own. And I think we should not underestimate them. Could be good for competition though.

It still spreads your opponents resources thinner, from a strictly game theory perspective.

From a first-order perspective, perhaps.

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#19

Post by itsoktocry »

Jensson wrote: post #11
DaedPsyker wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I'd say so, I don't think in the medium future it would have made much difference. China wants ensure control over strategic elements anyway. I suspect that the west has started betting on China intending to primarily rely on domestic production. Possibly to preempt the future, avoid companies getting entangled further, and slow China down even if just marginally, the west has settled this policy. I say west bu…

This will make the capitalist market in China invest into chipmaking, not just the government. That is a very different beast.

>capitalist market in China invest into chipmaking, not just the government

Where is the line between the "capitalist market" and the government in China?

Re: Beijing criticises Netherlands’ move to block ASML exports to China

#20

Post by adamsb6 »

holoduke wrote: post #2

I wonder if these actions will have the opposite effect. China will only more invest into producing their own. And I think we should not underestimate them. Could be good for competition though.

Steve Hsu has had guests on his podcasts saying exactly this. There was already a domestic semiconductor industry but big players almost never used them since the big semiconductor companies were such a safe bet.

Well, now they’re forced to use them, and they’re growing.

With the fabs available to them they can’t produce latest gen very few nanometer dies, but for a lot of use cases that doesn’t matter.

And of course, I’m sure they’ve got too people working on catching up. China graduates more engineers in a year than the United States has total.

Imagine if you banned Western countries from exporting cars to Japan in 1950.

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