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We Could Fix Everything, We Just Don't

erikmcclure.com

251–260 of 421 posts

Re: We Could Fix Everything, We Just Don't

#251
post #42

Who is "we"? When engineers are not subject to licensure, don't be surprised when management, pushed by bean counters, let the bean counters make the decisions. Subject engineers to licensure, including ethics clauses, including clauses for building for repairability and minimum expected product lifetimes. Legally protect engineers from dismissal or retribution for invoking these clauses. Then see how much crap we co…

Note that this will make society's ability to build things even worse.

The UK has gotten worse and worse at large scale construction over time as laws and rules and culture have gotten more conservative. Near me a small bridge is being widened. This takes a year and a half and £160 million, partly due to well intentioned rules. For example, one that says you need to have two attendants guiding traffic at every location people could get to the site, which means 12 very bored men standing around all day doing nothing at the two intersections at the edge of the build site.

Rules made from our ivory towers can't take into account all the factors that will actually occur in our fractally complex reality, particularly as times and situations change.

The impossible task gets even harder when second and third order effects come into play. For example, if a license is required to work, that license can be lost if something ever goes wrong and firing for not approving something is impossible then a second order effect could be that engineers will have every incentive to never approve things, requiring every safety feature rather than taking the time and effort to determine which are needed in the situation. The third order effect is a gradual shift of engineering culture towards being more conservative, as being more than average levels of risk taking means you can't just point at what everyone else does and say "Best practice!".

Re: We Could Fix Everything, We Just Don't

#252
It seems like the point of this article is we could cure cancer if we wanted to. It’s just a matter of incentives.

That’s not true. It’s not a money or effort hurdle, it’s a knowledge and technology hurdle.

Now one might argue that with enough money the knowledge and technology hurdle could be overcome, but I would disagree.

There are too many elements that are missing - biological tools, chemical probes, analytical techniques, laboratory procedures.

Sure money could advance those, but we don’t know which ones we need. One key (of many) to curing cancer could be the discovery of some mammalian cellular pathway. But we don’t know it exists so how would you find it? And even if it was discovered, you might not know it’s important.

Science often advances by the intersection of seemingly unconnected discoveries. You don’t know they matter until you do. It’s not a matter of just finding a specific area.

Re: We Could Fix Everything, We Just Don't

#253
post #53

> What they don’t tell you is that we already have solutions for a lot of problems, we just don’t use them. Sometimes this is because the solution is too expensive, but usually it’s because competing interests create a tragedy of the commons. If you have a solution that can't be used because it costs too much money or other societal concerns, then you don't have a solution. Part of making a solution is finding someth…

There’s a difference between “too expensive given the budget constraints we have imposed on ourselves” and “too expensive for any society to afford”. The author is asking us to step outside of the current political constraints and simply question whether these problems are truly as insurmountable as our political system makes them.

As for “other societal concerns” there are always societal concerns with anything. There were societal concerns with Social Security and free education for kids. Turns out those are good ideas despite the fact that they’re not free. In fact if you suggested them today a lot of people would shoot them down as infeasible. I don’t have any kids but I pay for other kids to learn to read. I’m not retired but I pay into social security.

Re: We Could Fix Everything, We Just Don't

#254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If your neighbour is using a type less language and is making more profit than you, then your boss will question the choice of language. Development pace is set by the competition. Edit: and if there is no competition, the longer it takes, the longer it will take to be profitable.

This. This is the argument I'm exhausted having. Rushing development works for... maybe a week. After that, every time , it takes longer overall than if it'd been done "right" the first time. Like a desk, you get one layer of crap and clutter. More than that and everything begins to teeter and fall. That said - you definitely have to ask yourself (as a developer) or your engineers (as management) "is there a simpler…

What's the old saying - nine pregnant people won't produce a child in one month. I think that comes from the Mythical Man Month but not sure.

I think "faster" has been replaced by "profit". Is there a more profitable way of doing it. Etc. Hence things such as AI/CoPilot and the rest.

We as developers have lost the craftsmanship that coding once was. Crafting a good bit of code that might just be a single line but which has elegance and conciseness to get the job done just right.

Re: We Could Fix Everything, We Just Don't

#255
post #58

For a lot of things the problem is essentially a problem of scale. Those "ancient human tribes" who did so much better were tribes of 100-200 people, and it's actually not that hard to "do the right thing" with a relatively small group of people. Blaming it on the two-party system is such a short-sighted US-centric point of view. There are plenty of countries with other types of democracies, and they have roughly sim…

I don't think he was blaming it on the two-party system. He was just explaining how the two-party system is one of those obviously broken mechanisms that effectively blocks against replacing it with one of the better alternatives. The general category of issues he highlights, should be well known to people who have lived in and observed our real world and society for a while. It is possible to produce USB-C cables that are robust and last - I know as I own some. But I also own and buy some that LOOK 'robust' but are fragile and stop working within a few months. The vendors make most money by optimizing for LOOKING robust (which is what I am 'demanding'), but in reality making a fragile product, so I anyway have to buy more. For medicine, he is also obviously right - tons of resources are poured into developing 'money-making' medicines for 'money-making' diseases, by commercial companies. And comparatively little money is expended solving diseases which are harmful but not candidates for making money. As an example, investors prefer chronic diseases where you need periodic medicine, and aren't attracted to 'single-use cure' medicines. He is really just pointing to, that a lot of the worlds problems aren't needing an inventor to solve them technically, they are needing politicians and a political movement to drive the will to solve and change them. I recommend reading Machievelli's 'The Prince', for people who suffer from naivety.

Re: We Could Fix Everything, We Just Don't

#256
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>COVID was a great example of this. Was it? How many fought against social distancing, masks and vaccines? Same with climate change, how many fight against necessary measures.

A lot of the people fighting against these things are not feeling the pain. Many people in my family are some degree of anti-vaccine / masking mandates. I can guarantee you that if a single close family member ended up hospitalized due to covid, their tune would do a fast 180. All of their beliefs are based on whether someone they care about had something happen to them.

People died from COVID and them or their families denied it was from Corona.

Re: We Could Fix Everything, We Just Don't

#257
post #17

No, we can’t “fix everything” because not everyone agrees that these are problems which need solving, or that your proposed solutions are actually an improvement. I feel like most people go through this thought process around junior year in college. “If only they would put me in charge, I could fix everything.” Yes, the world is not that simple, what a surprise…

Exactly this. We could build a network of commuter trains, but not everyone thinks that commuting as a life style is the future they want, so they comprehensibly don't want to pay that with their taxes. We could build enough houses to give housing to everyone, but many people don't want their neighbourhood turned into a concrete jungle or a "bad" neighborhood at their expense, so they would vote against a candidate with radical plans about housing. We could elect representatives choosing from a multiparty system with multi-preference, but many countries that do have large coalitions that regularly transition into government crises every time one of the parties thinks they'd have a better chance on a new election.

I find this kind of reasoning more and more frequent on the Internet: someone starts their rant with "we all agree that A is bad", while in reality 1) we don't even all agree that A is a problem 2) we don't all agree that, A being a problem, it is worse than the alternatives 3) sometimes, saying "A is a problem" is the only socially allowed take even if you don't care / don't think it is

Re: We Could Fix Everything, We Just Don't

#258
post #229
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He doesn't even give an example of "ancient human tribes," but modern day nomads whose traditions have also developed over thousands of years. If ancient human tribes were so great at avoiding tragedy of the commons, I would be eating a mammoth steak right now.

The whole tragedy of the commons was literally made up by a very reactionary dude to justify fucking people over and justify enclosure and privatisation. Historically people have actually had rather complicated and at the same time very effective ways of sustainably managing the commons. It also happens that privatisation is the thing that makes the tragedy of the commons happen.

Historically, people also cut down most of the forests in the Mediterranean for firewood and shipbuilding without even attempting to balance the process, causing major problems for their descendants. Most of this activity predated modern capitalism by millennia.

Historically and currently, people polluted common waters and air with all sorts of agricultural and industrial runoff. Heck, someone around me has been feeding their home fireplace with plastic right now and fifty other families have to smell the acrid smoke.

Historically and currently, people overfished oceanic stocks to total depletion in certain seas.

Historically and currently, people dumped their refuse somewhere behind their village or city, creating rotting heaps of trash.

I don't see anything made up about the tragedy of the commons.

Re: We Could Fix Everything, We Just Don't

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hear your point - if humans are part of the problem then an effective solution has to allow for humans in the loop. I'd extend that thought to be more narrow though. Local human political and economic factors need to be allowed for. So, for example, a medical solution will be different in a country that practices medicine for profit over those places where medicine is non profit. Equally the "can't build nuclear en…

> So, for example, a medical solution will be different in a country that practices medicine for profit over those places where medicine is non profit. There are some differences, but doctors still need to eat, equipment needs to be purchased, etc. Making medicine non profit isn't going to cure cancer.

"Non-profit" does not imply nobody gets paid. https://donorbox.org/nonprofit-blog/guide-to-nonprofit-salar...

Re: We Could Fix Everything, We Just Don't

#260
post #53

> What they don’t tell you is that we already have solutions for a lot of problems, we just don’t use them. Sometimes this is because the solution is too expensive, but usually it’s because competing interests create a tragedy of the commons. If you have a solution that can't be used because it costs too much money or other societal concerns, then you don't have a solution. Part of making a solution is finding someth…

It's not that it costs too much money, in many cases. The money's there. The problem is that the solution is not profitable compared to other actions, which is a different thing entirely.

For example, it is much more profitable to sell recurring treatments than it is to sell cures. You can only sell a cure once per instance of disease, after all, whereas selling a recurring treatment means you have an indefinite stream of revenue. (Similar logic applies to selling software as a subscription instead of as a one-off license.)

When something is "not profitable", that does not mean it costs too much. It means that the thing is not as profitable as other options, which is sometimes a result of excessively costly processes, but is at other times a result of having "do nothing" as an option (which by definition costs nothing, and depending on the field can make quite a lot of money).

Another example of something being "not profitable", but not because it costs more, is public goods. Public transportation, for instance. It is undeniable that good public transportation is a boon to society, but public transport is often framed as a business rather than a public good, and in the context of a business, public transport is simply not as profitable as something like a toll road. Running a toll road is close to "do nothing" compared to running a bus line or train line, since everyone brings their own car instead of using the publicly-provided transportation. The catch is, this is actually MORE costly overall--because many more vehicles have to be fueled and maintained, and cars are relatively inefficient compared to trains. But, because the cost is distributed to the users of the road, the toll road is "cheaper" for the people operating it, and thus more profitable--so if you run government like a business, the toll road is the thing you go with.

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