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Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

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Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#11
post #3

I’m fairly concerned this Red Sea thing can turn into what sets off inflation for real. These routes were major efficiency factors to the economy. If we lose them, there’s nothing but added cost coming for us all, and at the worst time for consumer confidence in central banks ability to manage the situation. Can we just keep our shit together? It’s been a rough decade and it’s only 3 years into the 2020s…

The Houthis official slogan is: “God is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse Upon the Jews, Victory to Islam."

I’m petty sure they do not give a shit about making consumerism harder for Americans. In fact it’s probably a bonus.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#12
post #4

Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Russian jets downed a US drone over the black sea in March 2023, I thought for sure there'd be a commensurate US military response. But there didn't appear to be one. Was it because no human was aboard the drone (so no response was justified), from fear or escalation, or something else? In any case, if a large cargo ship were sunk, would the US or othe…

What would a military response look like? I am not an expert in this area, but it seems to me if it got really bad, the US might send commandos to coordinate air strikes.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#14
post #2

[flagged]

More relevant to the ongoing attack: > “The Yemeni position is clear,” Abdullah Ben Amer, a high-ranking Houthi official in a department that is part of the group’s defense ministry, told The New York Times. The Houthi escalation in the Red Sea will stop, he said, when “the Israeli war on the people of Gaza stops.”

Houthis stopping to fire Iranian missiles does not in fact solve any of these problems, I'm afraid.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#16
post #6
post #4

Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Russian jets downed a US drone over the black sea in March 2023, I thought for sure there'd be a commensurate US military response. But there didn't appear to be one. Was it because no human was aboard the drone (so no response was justified), from fear or escalation, or something else? In any case, if a large cargo ship were sunk, would the US or othe…

> Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Probably more in the 'emotions' camp than in the 'concrete facts' camp, even if no one wants to admit it.

Right, because endless US involvement in ground wars in the middle east has always been firmly on the side of "concrete facts."

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#17
post #9
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Completely disregarding which president is in office, I always thought the paradoxical way to minimise war is to ensure you have a credible threat of retaliation. That means if you are attacked, you must fight back, otherwise your credibility falls and you become more of a target, thus emboldening adversaries and increasing violence.

There are a lot of ways to prevent wars. That’s just one.

- Promises not to go to war

- Reduction of armaments

- Machinery for the peaceful settlement of disputes between nations

- Economic penalties against aggressors

War doctrine is a very complicated subject, as is even the definition of war in modernity.

What causes a nation to declare war is unclear and difficult to reliably determine, but there is often a period or circumstances of instability or a immoral act that precipitates them.

The US appears to be going into a period of isolation and the world without global shipping protection is going to look radically different.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#18
post #12
post #4

Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Russian jets downed a US drone over the black sea in March 2023, I thought for sure there'd be a commensurate US military response. But there didn't appear to be one. Was it because no human was aboard the drone (so no response was justified), from fear or escalation, or something else? In any case, if a large cargo ship were sunk, would the US or othe…

What would a military response look like? I am not an expert in this area, but it seems to me if it got really bad, the US might send commandos to coordinate air strikes.

Retaliation is easier and less likely to cause war if it’s digital. Lots of “military” response comes in cyber form these days.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#19
Once again we see "blowback" in action. Here's the cycle:

1. A major power backs a side in an internal struggle for their own end. If necessary, a conflict is manufactured by propping up rebels, a coup, etc;

2. The other side, which tends to be the internally popular side, resists. Because of that popular support, they can survive, thrive and grow;

3. Insurgencies are incredibly effective. Counter-insurgencies are incredibly difficult. The insurgents are fighting for their lives. The boots on the ground for the major power backed forces don't tend to want to be there;

4. Reactionary forces are seen by the besieged populace as emancipatory forces;

5. When the resolve of the major power breaks or there is simply a policy shift, the unpopular government crumbles and is replaced by those reactionary forces. Classic example: the fundamentalist Iranian revolution of 1979. Go and look at what Iran was like before the 1953 coup.

6. Those former insurgents become a regional thorn in the side for that major power for decades to come;

7. The major power, unwilling to commit militarily, responds with economic sanctions. This does little more than starve people and kill people due to lack of medicine. But th eregime survives. It can even be strengthened as the citizens blame the major power for their plight.

The Saudis committed genocide in Yemen. For years. And the world ignored it. They used US-supplied weapons to do it. At any time, the US could've ended Saudi atrocities in Yemen with a phone call.

And now the Houthi rebels have become battle-hardened guerillas and insurgents, capable of projecting force into the vital shipping lanes of the Red Sea. Drones have become incredibly cheap, to the point that a ragtag group will tie up a US carrier group who will try to enforce security, much like they have done with, say, Somali pirates.

The US carrier group may even adequately suppress the Houthis but this is attrition and Houthi investment is a drop in the ocean compared to the cost to the US.

The last two decades saw a massive change in drone use by the military. It was always just a matter of time before that military technology filtered down to insurgents and it's going to have a massive effect.

We saw this in Afghanistan in the 1970s when US-supplied Stinger missiles completely changed the battlefield as they rendered Soviet gunships ineffective at an incredibly low cost.

This isn't a statement supporting the Houthis (or even denoucning them). It's simply an analysis of the pattern that has played out many times, particularly since WW2.

This is what I mean by "blowback".

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#20
post #4

Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Russian jets downed a US drone over the black sea in March 2023, I thought for sure there'd be a commensurate US military response. But there didn't appear to be one. Was it because no human was aboard the drone (so no response was justified), from fear or escalation, or something else? In any case, if a large cargo ship were sunk, would the US or othe…

I'm thinking that if the same thing happened in the days of the British Empire, there would be a lot of high velocity response on the way from the fine battleships of of her/his majesty battleships.

Sure, showing that you can shoot most of the missiles down or ignoring the other party might actually be the right thing in the end. But it still seems wrong when someone just starts shooting on ships on one of the main global shipping lanes. Others might might get an idea & start doing the same for whatever reason. :P

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