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Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

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Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#11

Post by adamredwoods »

adrr wrote: post #6
adamredwoods wrote: post #3

This certainly demonstrates how statistics can be misleading, or how averages can hide problems: https://komonews.com/news/local/seattle-police-chief-adrian-... >> "We are doing everything we can to recover guns, reduce this level of violence," Diaz told KOMO News in an interview Thursday. That number keeps rising and it's the highest since Seattle reported 71 homicides in 1994. >> "Homelessness has been a huge drive…

The point is that homicides are declining in the US. Pointing to hot spots and saying otherwise is like saying climate change doesn't exist because some city set a record low temperature.

I'm not saying there isn't decline in places. I'm saying that if people think everything is just fine when there are places that are having serious issues.

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#12

Post by bozhark »

belltaco wrote: post #5

It's still above 2019 levels, looks like it just dropped from the pandemic spike. Autotheft and carjackings are on the rise, its pretty terrible in my area with boys and girl as young as 12 and 13 stealing cars for joyrides because they are being let go after being caught, resulting in fatalities in some cases. This was my reply with examples and sources to someone saying crimes weren't for fun. https://news.ycombina…

TikTok + lazy manufacturers.

KIA & Hundai knew about the issue well in advance and made the business decision not to react and fix it.

Easiest car to steal in a few generations. People that is

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#13

Post by etchalon »

I tend to treat crime as a trailing indicator of the economy overall.

Lower-crime rates correlate with lower unemployment, and vice-versa.

Of course, every police department is going to pretend they've developed some novel new crime fighting methods – instead of just realizing that, hey, less poor people means less crime.

Homicides are interesting in isolation, because so many of our domestic homicides are gun-and-drug violence. One of the hypothesis in drug legalization was that homicide rates would decrease.

That hasn't really proven out yet.

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#14

Post by jimbob45 »

Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco told ABC News in a recent interview that she believes increased federal assistance to local law enforcement agencies is partially responsible for the decrease

It’s really difficult when one of the political parties spent all of 2020 calling to defund police and has made no effort to announce that they were wrong or that they won’t do it again. Makes these kinds of moves feel hollow.

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#16

Post by edgyquant »

adrr wrote: post #6
adamredwoods wrote: post #3

This certainly demonstrates how statistics can be misleading, or how averages can hide problems: https://komonews.com/news/local/seattle-police-chief-adrian-... >> "We are doing everything we can to recover guns, reduce this level of violence," Diaz told KOMO News in an interview Thursday. That number keeps rising and it's the highest since Seattle reported 71 homicides in 1994. >> "Homelessness has been a huge drive…

The point is that homicides are declining in the US. Pointing to hot spots and saying otherwise is like saying climate change doesn't exist because some city set a record low temperature.

It isn’t “pointing to hotspots.” Homicides spiked during Covid and still haven’t returned to those previous levels. Pointing to an overall slight dip while places like Seattle are at 30 year highs seems extremely dishonest.

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#17

Post by etchalon »

Swizec wrote: post #10
okasaki wrote: post #4

> Why it matters: The findings appear to be at odds with Americans' perception of crime both in their communities and in the rest of the country. Well, there are other crimes than murder?

Speaking as someone who has lived in the downtown area of a dense US city for the past 8 years, US crime stats and perception are weird. Yes I live in a neighborhood with high crime stats. Even relatively high violent crime stats. But it feels pretty safe regardless. Random violent crime is extremely rare. Mostly what you get are violent disputes between people who know each other. You can literally walk by a drug de…

It's incredibly hard to explain this disconnect to people who haven't lived in high-poverty/high-crime/dense places.

Chicago, even the south side, never felt dangerous to me while living there.

But here in Texas, people seem to think it's some wild west of violence every day.

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#18

Post by etchalon »

adamredwoods wrote: post #11
adrr wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is that homicides are declining in the US. Pointing to hot spots and saying otherwise is like saying climate change doesn't exist because some city set a record low temperature.

I'm not saying there isn't decline in places. I'm saying that if people think everything is just fine when there are places that are having serious issues.

But the reverse is also true. There are people who think it's bad everywhere, when really, it's bad in a few places.

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#19

Post by ceejayoz »

edgyquant wrote: post #16
adrr wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is that homicides are declining in the US. Pointing to hot spots and saying otherwise is like saying climate change doesn't exist because some city set a record low temperature.

It isn’t “pointing to hotspots.” Homicides spiked during Covid and still haven’t returned to those previous levels. Pointing to an overall slight dip while places like Seattle are at 30 year highs seems extremely dishonest.

Arguing "it isn't pointing to hotspots" by... pointing to a hotspot again is just goofy.

The article has a chart going back to 1960; even the COVID spike is low by 70s/80s/90s standards; 2023's numbers visibly aren't that far off 2014's lowest ever.

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#20

Post by [deleted] »

etchalon wrote: post #13

I tend to treat crime as a trailing indicator of the economy overall. Lower-crime rates correlate with lower unemployment, and vice-versa. Of course, every police department is going to pretend they've developed some novel new crime fighting methods – instead of just realizing that, hey, less poor people means less crime. Homicides are interesting in isolation, because so many of our domestic homicides are gun-and-dr…

[deleted]
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