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Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

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Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#3
This certainly demonstrates how statistics can be misleading, or how averages can hide problems:

https://komonews.com/news/local/seattle-police-chief-adrian-...

>> "We are doing everything we can to recover guns, reduce this level of violence," Diaz told KOMO News in an interview Thursday. That number keeps rising and it's the highest since Seattle reported 71 homicides in 1994.

>> "Homelessness has been a huge driver of it," he responded. "Almost 20% of our homicides are related to homelessness. Eight percent is related to domestic violence."

Cleveland:

https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/local-news/investigation...

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#5
It's still above 2019 levels, looks like it just dropped from the pandemic spike. Autotheft and carjackings are on the rise, its pretty terrible in my area with boys and girl as young as 12 and 13 stealing cars for joyrides because they are being let go after being caught, resulting in fatalities in some cases.

This was my reply with examples and sources to someone saying crimes weren't for fun.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38704726

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#6

This certainly demonstrates how statistics can be misleading, or how averages can hide problems: https://komonews.com/news/local/seattle-police-chief-adrian-... >> "We are doing everything we can to recover guns, reduce this level of violence," Diaz told KOMO News in an interview Thursday. That number keeps rising and it's the highest since Seattle reported 71 homicides in 1994. >> "Homelessness has been a huge drive…

The point is that homicides are declining in the US. Pointing to hot spots and saying otherwise is like saying climate change doesn't exist because some city set a record low temperature.

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#8
> "We're using tools like crime-gun intelligence, the ability to trace the gun and the spent shell casing from a crime scene to identify who's that shooter, how many violent crimes have they been involved with," she said in the interview.

I don't think that prevents enough crime to account for the drop, though I would believe it helps catch criminals after the fact. I'm basing this on the assumption that the average number of homicide incidents per murderer is somewhere around one, and that most people who are likely to commit murder wouldn't decide to do it or not based on the state of this year's gun-crime intelligence analysis packages.

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#9
post #4

> Why it matters: The findings appear to be at odds with Americans' perception of crime both in their communities and in the rest of the country. Well, there are other crimes than murder?

The other crimes have been declining dramatically for decades, too. American perception of crime doesn't match the reality; it's a 24/7 cable news phenomenon.

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/11/20/facts-abo...

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#10
post #4

> Why it matters: The findings appear to be at odds with Americans' perception of crime both in their communities and in the rest of the country. Well, there are other crimes than murder?

Speaking as someone who has lived in the downtown area of a dense US city for the past 8 years, US crime stats and perception are weird.

Yes I live in a neighborhood with high crime stats. Even relatively high violent crime stats. But it feels pretty safe regardless. Random violent crime is extremely rare. Mostly what you get are violent disputes between people who know each other.

You can literally walk by a drug deal happening and be fully uninvolved. The people won’t even look at you or notice you’re there. It’s like the two parts of society live past each other.

Never leave stuff in your car tho. It will get broken into.

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