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Will scaling work?

dwarkeshpatel.com

271–280 of 289 posts

Re: Will scaling work?

#271

I was thinking last night about LLMs with respect to Wittgenstein after watching this interesting discussion of his philosophy by John Searle [1]. I think Wittgenstein's ideas are pertinent to the discussion of the relation of language to intelligence (or reasoning in general). I don't meant this in a technical sense (I recall Chomsky mentioning that almost no ideas from Wittgenstein actually have a place in modern l…

> Wittgenstein view of metaphysics lmao. I'd like to see you elaborate on what you think this means! The fact that you quote Searle, though, tells me all I need to know.

Wittgenstein seemed most interested in the question of how to categorize logical propositions into two categories: those that were sensible and those that were nonsense. I don't know how he explicitly described that process of categorization but I think it is fair to say that an agent that can categorize logical propositions into those two categories could be described as intelligent.

In his early work he appeared to believe that the way to do this categorization was to determine if the logical propositions corresponded in their structure to the real world (his picture theory of language). In his later work he appears to have believed the way to do this was to reference some "language game" among a set of communicating agents and then understand the words based on their context within that construct (use theory of language).

Both of these concepts do not reference any kind of subjective experience, aesthetics, morality, etc. They are simply a description of how to judge whether or not a proposition is "meaningful". In later Wittgenstein, meaning in language is entirely divorced from any necessity that the statements correspond to an independent objective reality. It is simply necessary that they are consistent amongst the participants in a particular language game.

I don't believe that means the entirety of our "consciousness" is related solely to our ability to categorize logical propositions. However, it may suggest that intelligence specifically is related to this ability.

In as much as we can say that an LLM is capable of participating in some particular human language game and can successfully categorize logical propositions within that language game - I would say that LLM is demonstrating "intelligence" within that language game. And if we can create LLMs that can participate in arbitrary (or general) language games across a wide variety of domains, we might call that LLM generally intelligent. I believe that current LLMs have achieved the first (demonstrating some intelligence in particular domains) but we have yet to achieve the second (demonstrating consistent intelligence in a wide range of general domains).

As for metaphysics, I would argue that Wittgenstein saw this general ability (to categorize logical propositions) as a subset of all possible experience. I believe he saw this categorization activity as the primary aim of philosophy. However, the kinds of experience that were outside of this categorization activity could not be spoken about at all.

Re: Will scaling work?

#272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet again you just pick out a word, "oversimplified" in this case, ignores the rest of the reply - and more importantly, the entire context of all these replies - and goes on to make a nonsensical comparison with the ever-present one-liner that all textbooks of all academic disciplines have. Have you not understood by now that my critic of our field's AI-hubris is a general one - and thus not hinged on exact wordings…

You keep ignoring that your criticism is nonsensical. There is nothing in Visarga's comment that indicates hubris. If there is, you would be able to plainly point it out instead of complaining that people are misinterpreting your complaint.

> There is nothing in Visarga's comment that indicates hubris

I think it does, and I've explained exactly how but you just pivots to snarky comments on specific words instead - first scientists, then magic, then oversimplified. Furthermore you seemingly can't accept no matter how many times that it's not specific to this particular comment but meant as a response to the general "AI-hype. So judging by this you're either wilfully obtuse or completely unable to read between the lines no matter how many times I explain it to you. Did you miss that all sibling comments to mine seemed to - shockingly - be able to react the same way I did - albeit less exasperated? But somehow you're completely unable to accept that reaction.

Seriously though, to make my general non-comment specific point for the last time; just do a Occam's razor on the "AI"-hype timeline between if it's a bog standard self-interested tech-hype, using the same methods but with more hardware, or an extraordinary scientific breakthrough justifiably triggering all the extraordinary claims about AGI being close and even an existential threat (!). I think it's the former. If you think that the latter is likelier, fine, but I do think that that requires an embarrassing combination of hubris & confirmation bias because it strokes our egos.

I assume that you're invested in this hype and has taken offense by me calling it embarrassing hubris. I hope you'll be okay when this bubble inevitably bursts. I'll leave it to it now, since I think I've made my general point even though it's clear that it will never be acknowledged.

Re: Will scaling work?

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You keep ignoring that your criticism is nonsensical. There is nothing in Visarga's comment that indicates hubris. If there is, you would be able to plainly point it out instead of complaining that people are misinterpreting your complaint.

> There is nothing in Visarga's comment that indicates hubris I think it does, and I've explained exactly how but you just pivots to snarky comments on specific words instead - first scientists, then magic, then oversimplified. Furthermore you seemingly can't accept no matter how many times that it's not specific to this particular comment but meant as a response to the general "AI-hype. So judging by this you're eit…

> Did you miss that all sibling comments to mine seemed to - shockingly - be able to react the same way I did - albeit less exasperated?

Did you miss all the upvotes that my comment and responses to sibling comments that show that your reaction is completely out of place?

> to make my general non-comment specific point

OK, so you have no justification for your reaction to Visarga's comment, just as I and the voters suspected.

Re: Will scaling work?

#274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is nothing in Visarga's comment that indicates hubris I think it does, and I've explained exactly how but you just pivots to snarky comments on specific words instead - first scientists, then magic, then oversimplified. Furthermore you seemingly can't accept no matter how many times that it's not specific to this particular comment but meant as a response to the general "AI-hype. So judging by this you're eit…

> Did you miss that all sibling comments to mine seemed to - shockingly - be able to react the same way I did - albeit less exasperated? Did you miss all the upvotes that my comment and responses to sibling comments that show that your reaction is completely out of place? > to make my general non-comment specific point OK, so you have no justification for your reaction to Visarga's comment, just as I and the voters s…

Haha, still honing in on the specific comment, you're beyond help. Like bitcoin cultists from 10 years ago.

Re: Will scaling work?

#275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Did you miss that all sibling comments to mine seemed to - shockingly - be able to react the same way I did - albeit less exasperated? Did you miss all the upvotes that my comment and responses to sibling comments that show that your reaction is completely out of place? > to make my general non-comment specific point OK, so you have no justification for your reaction to Visarga's comment, just as I and the voters s…

Haha, still honing in on the specific comment, you're beyond help. Like bitcoin cultists from 10 years ago.

Why did you criticize the comment if you don't think it deserves criticism? Words have meaning.

Re: Will scaling work?

#276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The internet did change things pretty dramatically. For sure - I grew up in the mid-late 70s having to walk to the library to research stuff for homework, parents having to use the yellow-pages to find things, etc. Maybe smartphones are more of a game changer than desk-bound internet though - a global communication device in your pocket that'll give you driving directions, etc, etc. BUT ... does the world really FE…

It's because the change happened slowly. So it feels like nothing has changed. Another thing that's changed is engineering. The US has moved up the stack. Engineering is now mostly software development and within that it's mostly web development. Engineering and manufacturing has largely moved overseas to Asia and that's where most of the expertise lies. The only thing off the top of my head that the US still dominat…

I don't think so. AGI will fundamentally change things. People will marry AGIs or at least try to (watch Her). Any and all digital jobs will be first to be replaced, and then most other jobs too via robotic arms or full androids. SDVs will reach their full potential, likely disrupting the entire automotive industry. Our economy will get even more messed up...

Re: Will scaling work?

#277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Haha, still honing in on the specific comment, you're beyond help. Like bitcoin cultists from 10 years ago.

Why did you criticize the comment if you don't think it deserves criticism? Words have meaning.

> No, not at all. The only thing I did was to react on how ridiculous that oversimplification is and how such a thing can only come about due to an embarrassing amount of hubris currently going around our field with relation to "AI". It's a hand-wavy "Eh, how hard can it be?" comment to rationalize ML being a pathway to AGI.

Added emphasis, and others reacted the same way. You can disagree with the interpretation but to like disallow it like you seem to be attempting is really weird.

Re: Will scaling work?

#278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People who experienced a stable childhood seem to have a natural tendency to view the period they grew up in as, if not a golden age, then a safer, simpler time. Which makes sense: You’re too young to be aware of much of the complexity of the world, and your parents provide most of your essential needs and shield you from a lot of bad stuff. That’s not to say all eras are the same. Clearly there’s better and worse ti…

That's certainly all true, and not just parents shielding you from bad stuff, but the bad stuff just not appearing on the TV or in the newspaper the way it will today on TV or internet. If it was going on then nobody was aware of it, and maybe not a bad thing. Is my life really better for reading about some teenage cartel hitman making human "stew" etc ? But I do think that perhaps the 70's was a somewhat more decent…

People have been killing each other for their entire history, I don't think that has changed. It's just that you hear about and see it more often now.

Re: Will scaling work?

#279
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, has _any_ change in _human history_ impacted those considerably? This argument is like saying we live the same way the cavemen did...

I'm not the original commenter, but moving from nomadic tribes to stable settlements, moving from hunter gathering to agriculture, moving from almost everyone subsistence farming to the introduction of money at all, to most people working unrelated for money and trading money for food[2], moving from multigenerational homes to nuclear families to sending kids to schools and daycares, moving from tribal lands to count…

that's quite a restrictive view of how much the internet changed _everything_ across the planet, from culture to work

Re: Will scaling work?

#280
post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not the original commenter, but moving from nomadic tribes to stable settlements, moving from hunter gathering to agriculture, moving from almost everyone subsistence farming to the introduction of money at all, to most people working unrelated for money and trading money for food[2], moving from multigenerational homes to nuclear families to sending kids to schools and daycares, moving from tribal lands to count…

that's quite a restrictive view of how much the internet changed _everything_ across the planet, from culture to work

Oh what a frustratingly low effort reply to my high effort comment. Come on, if you want to make the claim that the internet changed _everything_ you can back it up with some examples - especially when the claim was not "nothing changed" but "things don't feel as different" - so the examples should not be "someone far away does something differently" or "some behind the scenes organisation was more efficient", but things everyday us (HN readers) feel in day to day life.

No telephone to telephone is a HUGE change. Telephone call to digital PBX over fibre to packet switched VoIP to WhatsApp feels like no change at all.

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