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First new U.S. nuclear reactor since 2016 is now in operation

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Re: First new U.S. nuclear reactor since 2016 is now in operation

#791
post #772

Lots of disfavorable comparisons being made here between nuke and solar. Let's do some math. There is a total of around 10 GWh of deployed grid storage in the US. The US consumed about 4,000 TWh of electricity in 2022. (10GWh/ 4000TWh) * (31,536,000 seconds) == 78 seconds. So, net, there is about a minute and a half of energy storage across the entire grid. (Most, about 90%, is pumped hydro, not battery). Of course,…

I think the idea that renewables have to be paired with large amounts of energy storage is not correct. In Ireland dispatchable power is used when wind is low. Natural gas, hydroelectric, HVDC, pumped storage. Lithium ion batteries are generally only used briefly while the gas power plant gets up to temperature because of their high cost. There are also HVDC interconnectors that allow excess wind to be exported to the UK and electricity to be imported from there when it is cheaper. They expect to be able to achieve 70-80% renewables using this system by 2030, and are currently at around 45%. From 2030 onwards the focus will be on decarbonising the remaining ~20% of electricity generation that is gas. How that will be done will depend mostly on how the technology matures in the meantime, but it will likely be replacing natural gas with hydrogen and biogas. Another option could be carbon capture. Or batteries if there is some technological breakthrough and the price of stored energy drops way below it's current 200euro/MWh price.

I also think that electricity grids are very complex and powering any large grid with 100% of any one source is impossible. As each energy source has different pros and cons, you'll generally always have a mix of different sources.

Re: First new U.S. nuclear reactor since 2016 is now in operation

#792
post #673
post #606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/12/politics/nuclear-fusion-energ...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivy_Mike

If you’re talking about the concept of fusion then it’s much much older :))

Re: First new U.S. nuclear reactor since 2016 is now in operation

#793

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think they were saying solar is useless, but you underestimate how difficult it is to change peak load. Well a good start is actually smart systems within homes, for instance to avoid heating said home when nobody is present, or timing loads like car charging and dishwashers to be on that beat. That's great, but it's been proven these smart systems are very hard to roll out, no matter how much you try to say…

now I am wondering about the net social benefit of solar power disincentivizing third-shift (overnight) production. cheaper electricity during the day makes it relatively more expensive to operate heavy industry plants 24/7. the heavy investment that goes into those plants incentives operators to drive (and staff) them 24/7, but there are hidden social costs (negative externalities) of having so many people out of di…

I worked a graveyard shift at a factory in college one summer because it was the only job that I could really find after weeks of looking. I definitely feel for the people who did it for a living.

That said, the companies aren't going to just stop, they'll just charge higher prices. To stop producing in the third shift, they'll need to:

    - add more daytime production lines, which means buying more floor space, possibly in a different location with new logistics to work out

    - new capex for the new lines

    - higher overhead because your newly expanded production lines are idle 30% of the time

    - higher overhead from daily startup and shutdown times
This is all for companies where it is feasible to do so. Some plants measure startup and shutdown in hours, if not days. Doing a full cycle every day would mean redesigning their entire operation, if it is even possible to do so at all.

Even places like hospitals don't exactly get to choose to just turn off all the life support and lights at night.

Re: First new U.S. nuclear reactor since 2016 is now in operation

#794
post #772

Lots of disfavorable comparisons being made here between nuke and solar. Let's do some math. There is a total of around 10 GWh of deployed grid storage in the US. The US consumed about 4,000 TWh of electricity in 2022. (10GWh/ 4000TWh) * (31,536,000 seconds) == 78 seconds. So, net, there is about a minute and a half of energy storage across the entire grid. (Most, about 90%, is pumped hydro, not battery). Of course,…

The nice thing about solar is it's very cheap, and as a grid provider you can just charge more for energy at night to disincentivize use when the sun is not shining. We do not actually need constant energy supply at all hours of the day and night and solar can cover a great deal of energy needs for very cheap. You can also deploy solar even on a large scale in very short time scales. Want to build nuclear? You start…

We actually need constant energy supply at all hours of the day and night if we want to have a modern industrialized economy with factories and refineries operating around the clock. It's generally not practical to shut down those facilities just because electricity prices are temporarily high. So, in practice all of those industries will migrate to areas with cheap, reliable power (even if it's not "green"). This has obvious national security concerns in that it makes us dependent on unreliable imports for critical materials.

Re: First new U.S. nuclear reactor since 2016 is now in operation

#795

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Batteries are not for riding out winter, they're for evening out the daily load. You have to overbuild renewables to handle seasonal variation, as well as make long-distance interconnects. Pumped hydro is also extremely interesting for obvious reasons. Nuclear as it exists today is not cost competitive. But that's mostly an artificial problem caused by regulation. Can we solve that without sacrificing safety? Can we…

If there's any area to not skimp on safety regulations, I'd say nuclear is it. I think the alleged blight of "overregulation" has become a conservative mantra but without much basis in fact. Or maybe I'm wrong. You seem to know a lot about nuclear regulation. Can you tell us a specific, unnecessary burdensome regulatory rule that you feel is holding back progress?

> Can you tell us a specific, unnecessary burdensome regulatory rule that you feel is holding back progress?

+1. There are so much flamewar threads but I haven't seen a single technical discussion on a supposedly technical website. Recently I've seen a book review about it. [0] I haven't evaluated the merits of the author's arguments, so I can't say I endorse it unconditionally, but there's a lot of interesting food for thought.

In summary, the author's claims are that regulations are unnecessarily strict mainly because of the ALARA safety guidelines. For regulatory purposes, safety risks must be minimized to As Low As Reasonably Achievable. As a result, whenever a new technology becomes available, the safety standard also increases in responsive. By design, the cost is always high in spite of technological improvement.

> An example was a prohibition against multiplexing, resulting in thousands of sensor wires leading to a large space called a cable spreading room. Multiplexing would have cut the number of wires by orders of magnitude while at the same time providing better safety by multiple, redundant paths. A plant that required 670,000 yards of cable in 1973 required almost double that, 1,267,000, by 1978, whereas “the cabling requirement should have been dropping precipitously” given progress at the time in digital technology.

Sometimes the regulation involves considering certain failure modes that are physically impossible:

> Another example was the acceptance in 1972 of the Double-Ended-Guillotine-Break of the primary loop piping as a credible failure. In this scenario, a section of the piping instantaneously disappears. Steel cannot fail in this manner. As usual Ted Rockwell put it best, “We can’t simulate instantaneous double ended breaks because things don’t break that way.”

A related issue is that the currently accepted principle of radiation safety is a linear, no threshold model. All ionizing radiation is seen as harmful, no matter how low, in spite of the scientific evidence that suggests a low level of ionizing radiation has a negligible effect when it's within the DNA's self-repair capabilities. The result is that radiation safety regulations can often be unnecessarily strict across the entire discipline of nuclear science.

> A forklift at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory moved a small spent fuel cask from the storage pool to the hot cell. The cask had not been properly drained and some pool water was dribbled onto the blacktop along the way. [...] The Bannock Paving Company was hired to repave the entire road. Bannock used slag from the local phosphate plants as aggregate in the blacktop, which had proved to be highly satisfactory in many of the roads in the Pocatello, Idaho area. After the job was complete, it was learned that the aggregate was naturally high in thorium, and was more radioactive that the material that had been dug up, marked with the dreaded radiation symbol, and hauled away for expensive, long-term burial.

> [...]

> One the biggest labs is Argonne outside Chicago. At Argonne, they monitor people going in and out of some of the buildings for radiation contamination. The alarms are set so low that, if it’s raining, in coming people must wipe off their shoes after they walk across the wet parking lot. And you can still set off the alarm, which means everything comes to the halt while you wait for the Health Physics monitor to show up, wand you down, and pronounce you OK to come in. What has happened is that the rain has washed some of the naturally occurring radon daughters out of the air, and a few of these mostly alpha articles have stuck to your shoes. In other words, Argonne is monitoring rain water.

Yet another factor is that strict regulations on nuclear reactors makes research and development difficult, as they're subject to the same stringent regulations, including building a complete model of all possible failure modes.

> Many questions arise during NRC design review: how a plant will handle the failure of this valve or that pump, etc. A natural way to answer these questions would be to build a reactor and test it, and for the design application to be based in large part on data from actual tests. [...] But under NRC rules, you cannot build even a test reactor without a license, and you can’t get a license until all such questions are resolved.

Overall, the author argued that the current regulation is founded on the false promise that a nuclear power plant can never fail with an unrealistic safety target. Instead, radiation release should be accepted as an inevitable but very rare occurrence.

> Instead of selling a lie that a radiation release is impossible, the industry should communicate the truth: releases are rare, but they will happen; and they are bad, but not unthinkably bad. [...] Rather than saying “a [plane] crash will never happen,” they put data-collecting devices on every plane so that when one inevitably does crash, they can learn from it and improve. This is a healthy attitude towards risk that the nuclear industry should emulate.

[0] https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ThvvCE2HsLohJYd7b/why-has-nu...

Re: First new U.S. nuclear reactor since 2016 is now in operation

#796

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't about "nuclear vs. fossil fuels" but about "nuclear and/or renewables?". The amount of damage/victims linked to nuclear is a matter of debate, and a final count will only be possible after its very last hot waste will be cold. Case in point (Chernobyl): https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/forests-around... https://knowablemagazine.org/content/article/food-environmen... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki…

How many batteries do we need to store the equivalent energy in 1kg of uranium or thorium? And how much mining is required obtain those materials and how much energy is required to refine those chemicals or elements? And repeat for the millions of solar panels and wind turbines. And shipping them around the world in diesel powered boats?

> How many batteries do we need to store the equivalent energy in 1kg of uranium

Energy density isn't, alone, determinant here.

The most determinant question is: after taking into account all measures aiming at reducing renewables' production 'intermittency' ('variability' is more adequate), which are: spreading a mix (wind, solar, geothermic...) of renewable sources on a continent, enhancing grid interconnections among nations for them so support each other (objective already very actively and more and more pursued in Europe), storing at continental-level renewables' over-productions (thanks to hydro, hydrogen...) and using it on a clean 'backup' compensating for renewables' 'intermittency', demand response... ... then how much energy do we need to store in order to compensate for any remaining 'intermittency'?

Given that the average electric car battery can power the average home for quite a while (days), and that other EV batteries will be online...

Moreover each year 7% to 10% of gridpower is in France (fully nuclearized) produced thanks to fossil fuel, and its electricity is low-emitting, giving a quite comfy last-resort.

> And how much mining is required obtain those materials

Those materials are recyclable and have substitutes.

Uranium isn't (in practice) recyclable and doesn't have any substitute: this is eternal mining of an ever-rarefied source.

> shipping them around the world in diesel powered boats?

This is a valid point, enforcing the need for each continent hosting cooperating nations to produce its own production units.

On the other hand uranium reserves at current conditions can provide for at best 200 years (more probably 130 years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium ), therefore the conditions (price and emissions, as the raise as the ore grade lowers may quickly worsen if some 'nuclear renaissance' stems reactors building projects. Who will take the risk and invest?

Re: First new U.S. nuclear reactor since 2016 is now in operation

#797

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't about "nuclear vs. fossil fuels" but about "nuclear and/or renewables?". The amount of damage/victims linked to nuclear is a matter of debate, and a final count will only be possible after its very last hot waste will be cold. Case in point (Chernobyl): https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/forests-around... https://knowablemagazine.org/content/article/food-environmen... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki…

Renewable energy isn’t free of fatalities either. Rooftop solar, wind, and hydro all have higher fatality rates per kWh than nuclear energy: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2021/07/2020-fatalities-for-us...

The sole point about hydro also is highly debatable: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35521090

Re: First new U.S. nuclear reactor since 2016 is now in operation

#798
post #772

Lots of disfavorable comparisons being made here between nuke and solar. Let's do some math. There is a total of around 10 GWh of deployed grid storage in the US. The US consumed about 4,000 TWh of electricity in 2022. (10GWh/ 4000TWh) * (31,536,000 seconds) == 78 seconds. So, net, there is about a minute and a half of energy storage across the entire grid. (Most, about 90%, is pumped hydro, not battery). Of course,…

Let's do some more math

From the article, this new reactor is "estimated to cost more than $30 Billion." (Let's call it 30) & It generates 1,114 Mega Watts.

This article [1] says solar panels cost between $0.90 and $1.50 per watt. Let's go with $1/watt to keep the math easy, though I bet it's much cheaper by now, and especially at the scale we'll be buying them at.

So for $30 billion dollars, we can have 30 billion watts of solar, which is 30,000 mega watts, or 27x the amount of power of the new nuke. Obviously solar doesn't produce at night and it's seasonal.

So let's make it more useful.

I saw elsewhere in this thread to get an actual output number from solar you have to divide by 6 to account for night and seasonality. So that means to equal the 1,114 mega watts from the nuke, we need 6,6684 mega watts of solar. call it 7mW to keep the math easy.

So we use 7 billion dollars buying 7mW of solar.

We have a tidy $23 billion dollars left over to spend on storage.

This site [2] says grid scale storage costs something like $300/kWh. (I bet it's cheaper now, and cheaper at massive scale, but we'll go with that.)

So with our $23 billion left over dollars we go and buy 76.6 million kWh of storage (which is 76,666 MWh). So even when there is no sun coming in, our storage can maintain the 1,114 mega watts of output for something around 68 hours. That sounds like overkill, so it probably makes sense to spend more of the money on solar and less on storage, but you get the idea.

Also note for the same $30 billion dollars our solar + storage setup now has no running costs, no refuelling costs, no downtime due to refuelling and maintenance and no radioactive waste disposal problem.

Also note the $30 billion nuke plant is a single point of failure, and needs big lossy power transmission lines coming in/out to go useful places. I would be interested to see the numbers on how much of that 1,114 mW of nuke power winds up lost in transmission. The solar setup can be distributed all over, and can generate and store the power right where it's needed - on factories, houses, schools and where ever else needs power. Transmission loss of close to zero.

Nukes are awesome, but they're not even in the realm of making sense financially. Year after year the price of solar and storage will go down again, then again, then again.

This is not a fair fight.

[1] https://www.forbes.com/home-improvement/solar/cost-of-solar-...

[2] https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/battery-storage-cost...

(Please point out any holes / problems in my math)

EDIT: as pointed out below the cost for grid scale storage is more like $500/kWh. So for our $23 billion we can buy 46 million kWh of storage (46,000 mWh). So we can equal the nukes 1,114 mW output for about 41 hours. Still plenty

Re: First new U.S. nuclear reactor since 2016 is now in operation

#799
post #772

Lots of disfavorable comparisons being made here between nuke and solar. Let's do some math. There is a total of around 10 GWh of deployed grid storage in the US. The US consumed about 4,000 TWh of electricity in 2022. (10GWh/ 4000TWh) * (31,536,000 seconds) == 78 seconds. So, net, there is about a minute and a half of energy storage across the entire grid. (Most, about 90%, is pumped hydro, not battery). Of course,…

Curious what you think of this recently completed project:

https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/28/scatecs-540mw-pv-1140mw...

With enough storage and onsite renewables you can mimic the stable baseload that Nuclear provides.

Re: First new U.S. nuclear reactor since 2016 is now in operation

#800
post #772

Lots of disfavorable comparisons being made here between nuke and solar. Let's do some math. There is a total of around 10 GWh of deployed grid storage in the US. The US consumed about 4,000 TWh of electricity in 2022. (10GWh/ 4000TWh) * (31,536,000 seconds) == 78 seconds. So, net, there is about a minute and a half of energy storage across the entire grid. (Most, about 90%, is pumped hydro, not battery). Of course,…

Curious what you think of this recently completed project: https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/28/scatecs-540mw-pv-1140mw... With enough storage and onsite renewables you can mimic the stable baseload that Nuclear provides.

There are better examples, but given you asked;

     With an installed solar capacity of 540 MW of PV, and a battery storage capacity of 225MW/1,140MWh (BYD ESS), the plant is designed to deliver 150 MW of dispatchable power from 5 am to 9.30 pm year-round to the national grid under a 20-year power purchase agreement with South Africa’s national power utility company, Eskom.
It's in MegaWatts not GigaWatts and delivers no power for seven and half hours every 24 hours.

That is not mimicing the stable baseload that nuclear (or a hydro electric pupmped storage dam) provides.

I'm not anti solar but a project such as your example has a long way to go to met the demands of a European country.

It's worth looking into how much of a dent it makes in South African energy demands.

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