One of my rules for life: If someone does something once, they will do it twice. Given similar circumstances, people act the same
Unfortunately, the rule still holds when "someone" is yourself. :-)
Using sequences of life-events to predict human lives
41–50 of 56 posts
Re: Using sequences of life-events to predict human lives
#42One of my rules for life: If someone does something once, they will do it twice. Given similar circumstances, people act the same
Well...yes. We aren't random action generators.
Re: Using sequences of life-events to predict human lives
#43I believe this is the corresponding code:
Re: Using sequences of life-events to predict human lives
#44“the most comprehensive registry data in existence, available for an entire nation of more than six million individuals across decades. Our data include information about life-events related to health, education, occupation, income, address, and working hours, recorded with day-to-day resolution.”
I shuddered just reading this. What a nightmare for individuals’ freedom and privacy. What a bloody nation is that?
Re: Using sequences of life-events to predict human lives
#45I have mixed feelings about this. It could be a great tool to help people, but on past experience it seems more likely that HR departments/ financial service providers/ governments would use it to write people off if they have too many negative life indicators.
Every time we get better at things like this, all the power tends to stay with organizations, and individual people are lucky if they get anything out of it. Amazon, Wal-Mart, MacDonalds, giant banks, insurers, et c., analyze their competition, suppliers, and consumers in great detail with computer data and models. Where’s the widespread automated buyer’s agent for consumers, to balance that power so strongly that it…
And here I am just watching Kaczynski’s predictions all the way back at 1970 become truer with the decade. Technology clashes with human autonomy.
It’s even argued that the path of technological progress would not change even if you there were aliens, AI bots, any entity with the instinct of self-preservation, intelligence and replication. The mechanisms of the macro-system comprised of human biology + technology are explained in his book Anti-Tech Revolution in great detail.
It was a hard and bitter conclusion to come as a software dev, but I can never again unsee the fact that all technology is inherently evil. For a shorter but enlightening read, see his original manifesto “Industrial Society And Its Future”: https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm/unab...
Re: Using sequences of life-events to predict human lives
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
Every time we get better at things like this, all the power tends to stay with organizations, and individual people are lucky if they get anything out of it. Amazon, Wal-Mart, MacDonalds, giant banks, insurers, et c., analyze their competition, suppliers, and consumers in great detail with computer data and models. Where’s the widespread automated buyer’s agent for consumers, to balance that power so strongly that it…
And here I am just watching Kaczynski’s predictions all the way back at 1970 become truer with the decade. Technology clashes with human autonomy. It’s even argued that the path of technological progress would not change even if you there were aliens, AI bots, any entity with the instinct of self-preservation, intelligence and replication. The mechanisms of the macro-system comprised of human biology + technology are…
Can I read that without getting on a watchlist somewhere?
Re: Using sequences of life-events to predict human lives
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
This. It would be the envy of every insurance company. How risky are you really ? I’m glad I’m not the only one that immediately thought about this.
Insurance companies are probably already doing something like this anyway
I remember talking to an actuary once.
Actuaries have to be scientifically accurate with respect to risk. If they underestimate the risk, the premiums don't cover the losses. If they overestimate them, they lose in the market.
So I asked her if a red sports car should REALLY be that much more expensive to insure than a grey family car.
She told me, yes, the pricing actually correlates very well with the risk.
The only time when pricing is NOT correlated with the risk is AFTER an accident. Statistically after an accident, drivers become safer, but the insurance companies will not lower the rates charged to reflect it.
Re: Using sequences of life-events to predict human lives
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
Scraping is legal; as are assistive technologies. What’s lacking is the collective willpower to develop social organizations, which could orchestrate and fund such efforts. There’s a complete lack of organization among the public. The problem is neither technical nor legislative: people just don’t care to, and are happier accepting the status quo.
People don't have the time, money, or energy. And they will continue to lose all three until there is no option but to figure out collective organisation
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Re: Using sequences of life-events to predict human lives
#49I wonder how an ethical board was convinced to allow this kind of research
what's unethical about it?
These days every time you do experiments that involve humans it's expected that you run your experiment design by your institutions ethics committee.
In this case I would expect that the committee perked up their ears, but once they heard that the data was anonymous they did not have any further concerns.
Re: Using sequences of life-events to predict human lives
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
And here I am just watching Kaczynski’s predictions all the way back at 1970 become truer with the decade. Technology clashes with human autonomy. It’s even argued that the path of technological progress would not change even if you there were aliens, AI bots, any entity with the instinct of self-preservation, intelligence and replication. The mechanisms of the macro-system comprised of human biology + technology are…
Can I read that without getting on a watchlist somewhere?
Clever and funny. This is why i like HN.