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Food price hikes are no longer outpacing overall inflation

cnn.com

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Re: Food price hikes are no longer outpacing overall inflation

#51

Post by thinkcontext »

killingtime74 wrote: post #5
bhpm wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s so weird to me that the labor story seems to leave out that 1m people died in the pandemic and also the largest generation in history is retiring.

1m is worldwide right? I see excess deaths for US for the entire pandemic is around 470k. The US population grew 1.5 million just from July '22 to July '23. This is apparently above trend. https://www.texastribune.org/2023/12/19/texas-2023-populatio... Ref: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

> 1m is worldwide right?

This statement is at such odds from reality it actually makes me curious. You are off by a factor of 20x. Do you think that you are knowledgeable about the events of the pandemic? How did you get your news about it?

Its made all the more puzzling by the fact that your own source has the correct figures.

Re: Food price hikes are no longer outpacing overall inflation

#52

Post by jwtorres »

oooyay wrote: post #34
burningChrome wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"soft landing" After three years of constant inflation and shrinkflation on the majority of products you buy? - a family size of cookies used to be 17.2oz, its now 14.6oz for the same price - laundry detergent scent enhancer - 13oz to 10oz and increased in price - a pack of frozen burritos went from 20 items to 18 for the same price - baby wipes in a smaller sized package and they increased in price - OJ went from a…

I'm probably biased but in 2008 I couldn't get a job (as a junior), dropped out of college, defaulted on debt(s), and joined the military during a time of war. I watched as friends/former colleagues/neighbors lost their homes, those who didn't went through an utter spiderweb of decision making of who to send the check to. For me, personally, it's hard to compare this to 2008/9. As far as I'm aware, greedflation (what…

This is interesting. Never thought about how confusing it would be when banks start playing musical chairs with your mortgage.

I do agree that a soft landing is still a recession. But the more people that realize that, the less soft the landing might be.

Re: Food price hikes are no longer outpacing overall inflation

#53

Post by fnordpiglet »

killingtime74 wrote: post #14
tekla wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm going to guess you didn't read your own sources > The raw death count gives us a sense of scale: for example, the US suffered roughly 470,000 excess deaths in 2020, compared to 352,000 confirmed COVID-19 deaths during that year. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home Total Deaths 1,159,864 That roughly tracks.

However that two years of excess mortality is still less than one year of population growth. How do you answer that

How is that relevant to how many people died of covid? We have pretty clear metrics of that, 1.1m. Excess deaths counts covid plus adjacent deaths due to avoiding care, poorer care delivery, and other confounding factors, as well as reduction in deaths due to less driving, risk taking, etc. We typically use excess deaths to measure in countries that were unable or unwilling to actually accurately report their death counts.

Re: Food price hikes are no longer outpacing overall inflation

#54

Post by oooyay »

jwtorres wrote: post #52
oooyay wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm probably biased but in 2008 I couldn't get a job (as a junior), dropped out of college, defaulted on debt(s), and joined the military during a time of war. I watched as friends/former colleagues/neighbors lost their homes, those who didn't went through an utter spiderweb of decision making of who to send the check to. For me, personally, it's hard to compare this to 2008/9. As far as I'm aware, greedflation (what…

This is interesting. Never thought about how confusing it would be when banks start playing musical chairs with your mortgage. I do agree that a soft landing is still a recession. But the more people that realize that, the less soft the landing might be.

> Never thought about how confusing it would be when banks start playing musical chairs with your mortgage.

I think Dodd-Frank addressed this, but maybe it was some legislation after. I think they made ACH details transferrable and padded payment windows iirc.

> But the more people that realize that, the less soft the landing might be.

Yeah, definitely, but that's why they crank the interest rate through the ceiling. People that are cash heavy could come up quite a bit if left uninhibited. Of course, they can still do that, but not in a property acquisition kind of way.

Re: Food price hikes are no longer outpacing overall inflation

#56

Post by elijah_moham »

bhpm wrote: post #3
hnbad wrote: post #2

It's interesting that the article is quick to blame "increased labor costs" and low unemployment (???) for the price hikes but then doesn't explain why prices for some items actually went down again. Meanwhile overall wages don't seem to track inflation. It reads like some businesses had to increase wages to retain employees but this doesn't seem to be causative as these employees were asking for higher wages because…

It’s so weird to me that the labor story seems to leave out that 1m people died in the pandemic and also the largest generation in history is retiring.

[flagged]

Re: Food price hikes are no longer outpacing overall inflation

#57

Post by Izkata »

ajross wrote: post #48
jerf wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yield curve inversions are not excitable attention-seeking pundits, but an emergent measure of the market as a whole. They are also not 100% accurate... but they're fairly accurate. There are also sensible reasons to believe they are indeed causally connected to some reasonable degree, so it's not throwing chicken livers and reading the future either. It's best not to conflate actual measures being tentatively interp…

> It's best not to conflate actual measures being tentatively interpreted on the basis of a century of history with some guy with a camera and a YouTube channel The commenter upthread "penciled in" a recession for Q3 of next year and cited your favorite metric. I think that's closer to a TikTok hit than a "tentatively interpreted" bit of pop economics. But to treat with your actual point: it still sounds like bunk to…

> while the 1980 recession jumped the gun.

No it didn't, it inverted in 1978. 1-2 years after the inversion starts is pretty consistent.

And yes, it is actually used as an indicator: https://fortune.com/recommends/investing/the-inverted-yield-...

Re: Food price hikes are no longer outpacing overall inflation

#58

Post by runsWphotons »

bhpm wrote: post #11
runsWphotons wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The people who died would have mostly been retired or lower productivity. Shouldnt impact labor costs much. Age pyramid definitely would though.

> Johnson took excess deaths and COVID deaths by age and applied labor force participation rates by age. And he got 300,000 workers who died as a result of COVID. Add that to the long-haul workers, and we’ve lost 1.9 million workers — or 18% of currently unfilled jobs. Note: most of those long-haulers have recovered, but I suspect that a great many of those didn’t recover back to their original job. That means during…

I am pretty dubious of this based on the age distribution of deaths (most were over 65 and 50-65 is the only bracket with large numbers who werent below retirement age--average is 61) but thank you for providing a counter argument with data.

Re: Food price hikes are no longer outpacing overall inflation

#59

Post by [deleted] »

thinkcontext wrote: post #51
killingtime74 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1m is worldwide right? I see excess deaths for US for the entire pandemic is around 470k. The US population grew 1.5 million just from July '22 to July '23. This is apparently above trend. https://www.texastribune.org/2023/12/19/texas-2023-populatio... Ref: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

> 1m is worldwide right? This statement is at such odds from reality it actually makes me curious. You are off by a factor of 20x. Do you think that you are knowledgeable about the events of the pandemic? How did you get your news about it? Its made all the more puzzling by the fact that your own source has the correct figures.

[deleted]

Re: Food price hikes are no longer outpacing overall inflation

#60

Post by [deleted] »

fnordpiglet wrote: post #53
killingtime74 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

However that two years of excess mortality is still less than one year of population growth. How do you answer that

How is that relevant to how many people died of covid? We have pretty clear metrics of that, 1.1m. Excess deaths counts covid plus adjacent deaths due to avoiding care, poorer care delivery, and other confounding factors, as well as reduction in deaths due to less driving, risk taking, etc. We typically use excess deaths to measure in countries that were unable or unwilling to actually accurately report their death c…

[deleted]
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