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Hyperloop One to shut down

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Re: Hyperloop One to shut down

#61

Post by jgeada »

ghaff wrote: post #28
KerrAvon wrote: post #13

There is technology for fast rapid mass transit: high-speed rail. Technology was never the issue here. Political will to fund, approve right-of-way, and build it was always the problem, and Musk never even tried to address that part.

In a country with long distances, a well-developed interstate highway system, and a well-developed air transport system. There is a decent rail system in the Northeast and between some other city pairs. But there isn't and shouldn't be the political will to develop rail transport options that don't outcompete those other options especially with electric/autonomous driving becoming an increasing option over the coming…

I live in the Northeast, what "decent rail system" are you talking about?

Acela takes 3h44m from Boston to New York. Not much faster than the scheduled buses (4h15m) and comparable to driving the distance in your own car (3h55m if you stick to the speed limits)

Re: Hyperloop One to shut down

#62

Post by TalkalotDragon »

Syonyk wrote: post #16
vorticalbox wrote: post #7

Robert Goddard designed a vacuum train in the 1910s, why did Elon think it was going to work a century later?

Because the arrogance of modern Silicon Valley thinking is that "We are better, in every possible way, than older engineers, because we know code. " And Elon Musk seems very, very prone to this sort of thinking (or, at least, his companies do, and I think it comes from him). One example of many is the weird conversations he was having about sonic velocity robots and "lights out dreadnaught" sort of auto factories, wh…

There are advantages to not trusting the prevailing industry wisdom and trying things out on your own.

like with Tesla they're ahead of other companies in multiple ways, but still behind in some aspects as well.

Re: Hyperloop One to shut down

#63

Post by renewiltord »

Pet_Ant wrote: post #49
renewiltord wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CA HSR is going to spend $8b to connect 4th and King to the Transbay Terminal. That's 2 miles. At $4b/mi, the problem would be too much attention not too little https://sfstandard.com/2023/10/27/san-francisco-downtown-rai...

I hate this kind of math because it really doesn't tell you much. What are the fixed costs? What's the maintenance? What are the costs to extend? If this is the cost now, what is the cost for the next phase? How much benefit are we getting out of those 2 miles? You comment reduced a complex issue to an elementary word problem in math.

Ah, I see. Let me clarify. The amount of spending until it opens is at least $8 billion. It will then cost more through its usable life.

Therefore, you're right. It will cost tens of billions once maintenance is included. As a comparison for how much benefit will be gained, presently 12000 people board transit at the 4th and King station every day.

I suppose it's my fault for having underestimated the total cost of this section of CA HSR. But perhaps you can link some of your analyses that include these various numbers for other projects and then we can put together one such analysis in these comments together.

Re: Hyperloop One to shut down

#64

Post by cjbgkagh »

wahern wrote: post #32
KerrAvon wrote: post #13

There is technology for fast rapid mass transit: high-speed rail. Technology was never the issue here. Political will to fund, approve right-of-way, and build it was always the problem, and Musk never even tried to address that part.

Hyperloop would have been built on pylons, theoretically mitigating the impact of a line cutting across farms or cities, which in the case of CAHSR has caused immeasurable political problems. I suspect the actual technology within the tube was never Musk's initial concern. Similar to his other industrial endeavors, I think the calculus with Hyperloop had more to do with the economics of being able to manufacture pylo…

It’s a very expensive and very fragile piece of infrastructure that would be hard to maintain in the best of circumstances. It would be easily sabotaged by those seeking to do harm which would make it even more egregiously expensive to defend.

Re: Hyperloop One to shut down

#65

Post by darksaints »

_ea1k wrote: post #52
darksaints wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is this an example of him being right? He neither proved that his idea worked, nor did he prove that maglev didn't work. Obviously he has gotten some things right, which is a good thing. But Musk has an extraordinary track record of being wrong about a lot of things. That, by itself, is not a problem - you lose, you learn, you fix, you win. The problem is that Musk aggressively attacks public policy with his aggr…

I have never heard him tell people not to do any of those things, tbh.

https://twitter.com/parismarx/status/1571628269555826688?lan...

Re: Hyperloop One to shut down

#66

Post by Syonyk »

drcross wrote: post #35
Syonyk wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the arrogance of modern Silicon Valley thinking is that "We are better, in every possible way, than older engineers, because we know code. " And Elon Musk seems very, very prone to this sort of thinking (or, at least, his companies do, and I think it comes from him). One example of many is the weird conversations he was having about sonic velocity robots and "lights out dreadnaught" sort of auto factories, wh…

What you call arrogance I call enthusiasm, industrialism and hope for a better future. Your attitude, quite frankly, sucks.

I mean, I'll admit I've watched the tech industry promise the moon and deliver a user-surveilling mud pie a few too many times to particularly care for their hype anymore.

It's 2023. I'd like to buy a car, TV, phone, or computer that isn't, by default, "slurping as much behavioral data as it thinks it can possibly get away with, routed out whatever connection it can find, to be sold to others who want to influence my thinking." It's hard to find.

Re: Hyperloop One to shut down

#67

Post by kiba »

ghaff wrote: post #28
KerrAvon wrote: post #13

There is technology for fast rapid mass transit: high-speed rail. Technology was never the issue here. Political will to fund, approve right-of-way, and build it was always the problem, and Musk never even tried to address that part.

In a country with long distances, a well-developed interstate highway system, and a well-developed air transport system. There is a decent rail system in the Northeast and between some other city pairs. But there isn't and shouldn't be the political will to develop rail transport options that don't outcompete those other options especially with electric/autonomous driving becoming an increasing option over the coming…

Why would electric car improve our traffic situation? They're just more efficient than ICE cars. Maybe it will lead to smaller vehicles, but we could have used motorcycles instead.

So you have self driving cars, which will probably improve traffic flow, but it's fundamentally limited by geometry. If people takes more car trips, this will reverse some if not all the benefit of self driving cars.

Re: Hyperloop One to shut down

#68

Post by addicted »

vorticalbox wrote: post #7

Robert Goddard designed a vacuum train in the 1910s, why did Elon think it was going to work a century later?

Well the most likely theory is that he did not expect it to work, which is precisely why he proposed it.

The point wasn’t to work. The point was to kill/delay CAHSR.

Re: Hyperloop One to shut down

#69

Post by ghaff »

jgeada wrote: post #61
ghaff wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a country with long distances, a well-developed interstate highway system, and a well-developed air transport system. There is a decent rail system in the Northeast and between some other city pairs. But there isn't and shouldn't be the political will to develop rail transport options that don't outcompete those other options especially with electric/autonomous driving becoming an increasing option over the coming…

I live in the Northeast, what "decent rail system" are you talking about? Acela takes 3h44m from Boston to New York. Not much faster than the scheduled buses (4h15m) and comparable to driving the distance in your own car (3h55m if you stick to the speed limits)

I hate driving into Manhattan.

I'd much rather take rail relative to the alternatives even if it takes longer and maybe costs more (especially leaving aside parking). And many others do as well even if it would be faster to drive.

And generally Manhattan is pretty walkable once you're there.

Re: Hyperloop One to shut down

#70

Post by dwb »

talldatethrow wrote: post #50
toyg wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cost is not the only factor. For certain social classes, public transport is seen as fundamentally shameful or dangerous, something better left to poor people.

I mentioned that I'm from Europe. Where trains are not seen at all like this. I use trains in Europe often, as it's a better experience than driving. In America, the driving experience is just fine outside of rush hour traffic in major metro areas. So what is this train saving me from?

I don't agree with you in the main part, but I do see where you're coming from. I'm from Europe, use trains often, and have also driven a fair few trips in the USA. Rush hour Bay Area was about as hellish as I expected (though merely tedious, rather than scary), but other than that it was very pleasant driving. I'd still rather take public transport if it was even two thirds the level of a decent European country – and while that's a fairly big request from where the USA is right now, we are talking about the biggest economy in the world.
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