The best forecast I know is Sean Parent's on ADSP episode 160.
[0:23:57] SP: We're also discussing internally around pending legislation around safety and security, what Adobe's response is going to be. Right now our thinking is we would like to publish a roadmap on how we're going to address that. That is not finalized yet in any form, but I expect a component of that roadmap is going to be that some of our critical components will get rewritten into Rust or another memory-safe language.
[0:24:28] CH: When you say "pending legislation", is that a nod to some pending legislation that you actually know is on the horizon? Or just anticipating that it's going to happen at some point?
[0:24:38] SP: Oh yeah, no. There are two bills (sorry I don't have...)
[0:24:44] CH: It's all right, we'll find them and link them in the show notes afterward.
[0:24:48] SP: Yeah, I can hunt down the links. The one in the U.S. that's pending basically says that the Department of Defense is going to within 270 days of the bill passing (and it's a funding bill which means it will probably pass late this year - early next year) that the Department of Defense will establish guidelines around safety and security including memory safety for software products purchased by Department of Defense. The E.U. has a similar wording in a bill that's slowly winding its way through their channels. I don't have insight into when that will pass. The U.S. one will almost certainly pass here within a month or two.
[0:25:43] CH: Oh. Wow.
[0:25:44] SP: There's a long way between having a bill pass that says almost a year later they have to establish a plan for what they're going to do, right. So it's not hard legislation in any way. But I view this-- I can send you a link. There was a podcast I listened to recently on macOS folklore. [...] It's talking about how in the early '90s there was a somewhat similar round of legislation that went around around POSIX compliance. Basically the Department of Defense decided that in order to have portable software, every operating system that they purchased had to have POSIX compliance. And there was a roadmap put into place. That's why Apple pursued building their own UNIX which was A/UX and eventually partnered with IBM to do AIX. And Microsoft in the same timeframe had a big push to get POSIX compliance in Windows OS. The thinking was eventually in order to sell to the government your operating system it would require POSIX compliance. What actually happened, if you wanted to buy just traditional Macintosh operating system you would just say "well I require Photoshop or pick-your-application and there is no alternative that runs under UNIX so therefore I need an exception to buy macOS" and it was extra paperwork but it got signed off on. So really never materialized into hard restrictions on sales of non-POSIX-compliant OSes. I expect the safety legislation to take somewhat the same route, which is, there will be pressure to write more software in memory-safe languages. When you don't write software in memory-safe languages there is going to be more pressure for you to document what your process is to mitigate the risks. And this is initially all in the realm of government sales, although there is some discussion in both the E.U. legislation and on the U.S. side of extending this to a consumer safety issue. But there will be an escape hatch because you couldn't wave any kind of magic wand as a legislator and say "you can't sell software anymore if it's written in C++". The world would grind to a halt. So there will be an escape hatch, and there will be pressure. So as a company you have to look at how are you going to mitigate that risk going forward. And what's your plan going to be so that you can continue to sell products to the government. And how do you make sure that you're not opening up a competitive threat. If you've got a competitor that can say "well we're written entirely in Rust so we don't have to do the paperwork" that becomes a faster path. So you want to make sure that you're aware of those issues and that you've got a plan in place to mitigate them.