Earlier quoted context omitted.
Cool
People don’t like it is, but it
People don't think it be like it is, but it do.
Advancements in machine learning for machine learning
61–70 of 162 posts
Re: Advancements in machine learning for machine learning
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
> In order for an AI to evaluate the effect of a small molecule on the brain, it would have to... simulate the operation of a human brain in a simulated environment. Similarly, to avoid Thalidomide-style disasters, it would have to simulate the conception, development and growth to adulthood of a human. This is how the human doctors who have cured things in the past have done it, is it? The way this is going to work,…
Then AI will have no effect on the drug industry at all. The rate limiting step isn't "thinking up molecules." The University of Bern enumerated all possible molecules composed only of hydrogen, carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, sulfur and chlorine, up to 17 atoms. That produced 166 billion molecules. https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/ci300415d There are commercial drugs considerably larger than that. We've got molecular stru…
> That produced 166 billion molecules.
Which is useless, because you can't run 166 billion clinical trials.
But you could run half a dozen if there's a strong chance one of them will be a success. Filtering the list down to 100 molecules from 166 billion, some of which can be further eliminated by human evaluation without the expense of clinical trials, is actually useful.
You still ultimately have to do the clinical trial, because there is no substitute for empiricism.
> That's the part that takes years and tens of millions of dollars.
It doesn't matter if it takes tens of millions of dollars if the result is a billion dollar drug.
Re: Advancements in machine learning for machine learning
#63The pace that ML seems to be advancing right now is amazing. I don’t believe in the singularity but it’s changing software and then society in ways no one can predict.
For me it's just another gold rush after dotcom, mobile, cloud, VR.
The first 3 have and did result as of today in trillions in dollars of economic activity. And have changed societies, politics, political participation, access to knowledge etc worldwide for good and bad. So I don't get why you are so dismissive of them.
Re: Advancements in machine learning for machine learning
#64The pace that ML seems to be advancing right now is amazing. I don’t believe in the singularity but it’s changing software and then society in ways no one can predict.
I really don’t people will be programming like we do today in five years
I think the biggest blind spot for many programers/coders is that yes it might not change much for them but it will allow many more people to code and do stuff that they were not able to before. As the the models get better and people use them more and learn how to use them more efficiently they will start changing things.
I am hoping we get to the point where the models are good enough that classes in schools are introduced on how to use them rather than just build them as the number of people wanting to or willing to learn programming is a lot smaller than the number of people to looking for ways to do things more efficiently.
Re: Advancements in machine learning for machine learning
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’ve been programming since middle school. That would be 30 years. Nothing really changed much. C++ is incrementally more convenient but fundamentally the same. Code editors are same. Debugger are same. Shell is same. I am certain in 30 years everything will still be the same.
The way I write code was fundamentally altered in the last year by GPT4 and copilot. Try having GPT4 write your code, you won’t be so certain about the future of programming afterward I guarantee it.
I am the same, 35 years. I use GPT 4 every day now. It sure is handy. It speeds up some things. It is a time saver but it does not seem to be better than me. It is like an OK assistant.
I would agree, not a fundamental or radical improvement yet.
Will it be? I hope so.
Re: Advancements in machine learning for machine learning
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
GPT4 was created before most feedback cycle. They had GPT4 ready before ChatGPT launch. If I recall right, GPT4 got done in October. After that, it was RLHF and safety work (Bing starts using GPT4 publicly in February, a month earlier than official launch)
GPT-4 was done training August 2022
Thanks!
Re: Advancements in machine learning for machine learning
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
Their only special sauce is the first-mover advantage. Then it attracted users (data), brand recognition, talent and became a positive feedback cycle.
GPT4 was created before most feedback cycle. They had GPT4 ready before ChatGPT launch. If I recall right, GPT4 got done in October. After that, it was RLHF and safety work (Bing starts using GPT4 publicly in February, a month earlier than official launch)
If I recall right, before ChatGPT launched Google already had LaMDA which an employee believed to be sentient and was subsequently fired. The foundation model was definitely done, but to launch Bard, Google needed a kick in the ass in additional RLHF, safety and groundedness work.
Ultimately though, it's futile to argue which model got done first, as long as the models were behind closed doors. But ChatGPT launched before Bard did and that's the pertinent part that gave OpenAI the first-mover advantage.
Re: Advancements in machine learning for machine learning
#68Earlier quoted context omitted.
Their only special sauce is the first-mover advantage. Then it attracted users (data), brand recognition, talent and became a positive feedback cycle.
GPT4 was created before most feedback cycle. They had GPT4 ready before ChatGPT launch. If I recall right, GPT4 got done in October. After that, it was RLHF and safety work (Bing starts using GPT4 publicly in February, a month earlier than official launch)
The RHLF is probably quite important even on top of a good base model.
Re: Advancements in machine learning for machine learning
#69Re: Advancements in machine learning for machine learning
#70The pace that ML seems to be advancing right now is amazing. I don’t believe in the singularity but it’s changing software and then society in ways no one can predict.
I want to see it come out with a cure for a disease that is tough to cure first. Singularity itself is pointless unless it benefits humans which is mainly in health/lower suffering
AI advancements are why we have affordable genome reading.
AlphaFold was a nice surprise when it happened, too.