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Advancements in machine learning for machine learning

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Re: Advancements in machine learning for machine learning

#41

Post by sublinear »

Der_Einzige wrote: post #17
greatpostman wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don’t people will be programming like we do today in five years

They’re making fun of your typo, but you’re right. Pretty much every software job in 5 years will be an AI job. This rustles a lot of feathers, but ignoring the truth will only hurt your career. I think the era of big tech paying fat stacks to a rather larger number of technical staff will start to wane as well. Better hope you have top AI paper publications and deep experience with all parts of using LLMs/whatever f…

Have you ever worked in tech and had to deal with the typical illiteracy and incompetence of management and execs?

If LLMs got this good, the brick wall these orgs will hit is what will really ruffle feathers. Leadership will have to be replaced by their technical workers in order for the company to continue existing. There's simply not enough information in the very high level plain english requirements they're used to thinking about. From a theoretical and practical perspective, you very likely cannot feed that half-assed junk to any LLM no matter how advanced and expect useful results. This is very much already the case human-to-human for all of history.

Either that or nothing happens, which is the current state of things. Writing code is not even 10% of the job.

Re: Advancements in machine learning for machine learning

#42

Post by SirMaster »

smabie wrote: post #24
SirMaster wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t see why not. I like programming how I do now. I don’t plan to stop. People do lots of things manually that machines have been able to do for a long time.

And they generally get outcompeted sooner or latter. All disciplines evolve over time and those who fail or refuse to keep up will be left behind.

People do things because they enjoy doing them. And people will continue to do things they enjoy doing such as programming.

I don’t think it has anything to do with competition or being left behind.

Re: Advancements in machine learning for machine learning

#43

Post by famouswaffles »

vitorgrs wrote: post #29
kccqzy wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their only special sauce is the first-mover advantage. Then it attracted users (data), brand recognition, talent and became a positive feedback cycle.

GPT4 was created before most feedback cycle. They had GPT4 ready before ChatGPT launch. If I recall right, GPT4 got done in October. After that, it was RLHF and safety work (Bing starts using GPT4 publicly in February, a month earlier than official launch)

GPT-4 was done training August 2022

Re: Advancements in machine learning for machine learning

#44

Post by sbierwagen »

m3kw9 wrote: post #19
RyanShook wrote: post #4

The pace that ML seems to be advancing right now is amazing. I don’t believe in the singularity but it’s changing software and then society in ways no one can predict.

I want to see it come out with a cure for a disease that is tough to cure first. Singularity itself is pointless unless it benefits humans which is mainly in health/lower suffering

In order for an AI to evaluate the effect of a small molecule on the brain, it would have to... simulate the operation of a human brain in a simulated environment. Similarly, to avoid Thalidomide-style disasters, it would have to simulate the conception, development and growth to adulthood of a human.

These things are... physically possible, but have WBE and uploads as a hard requirement. Those are going to affect a hell of a lot of things more than the drug industry!

Amusingly, machine-phase nanotechology and blood nanobots would be easier to evaluate, since simple cell-level mechanical interventions (reading surface proteins on cancer cells and chopping them up, say) will have fewer interactions than a small molecule that diffuses into every cell in the body.

Re: Advancements in machine learning for machine learning

#46

Post by resonious »

impegh wrote: post #28
educaysean wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say advancement in mathematics, computer science, and heck, even art is far from "pointless". Why does it feel like goalposts get moved everytime there is a significant progress in AI?

I read this same empty “goalposts” lament multiples times a day when reading this website, and though I know what the words mean I’m confused what you all think they mean. https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu... Is this just some performative grousing or do you really think what has been developed to date is “artificial intelligence”? These comments all conveniently fail to define their author…

Back in my CS undergrad we learned Dijkstra's Algorithm in AI class. Once upon a time, that was AI. I think AI just refers to newly discovered useful algorithms.

Re: Advancements in machine learning for machine learning

#48

Post by jocoda »

sbierwagen wrote: post #44
m3kw9 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I want to see it come out with a cure for a disease that is tough to cure first. Singularity itself is pointless unless it benefits humans which is mainly in health/lower suffering

In order for an AI to evaluate the effect of a small molecule on the brain, it would have to... simulate the operation of a human brain in a simulated environment. Similarly, to avoid Thalidomide-style disasters, it would have to simulate the conception, development and growth to adulthood of a human. These things are... physically possible, but have WBE and uploads as a hard requirement. Those are going to affect a…

WBE?

Re: Advancements in machine learning for machine learning

#49

Post by AnthonyMouse »

sbierwagen wrote: post #44
m3kw9 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I want to see it come out with a cure for a disease that is tough to cure first. Singularity itself is pointless unless it benefits humans which is mainly in health/lower suffering

In order for an AI to evaluate the effect of a small molecule on the brain, it would have to... simulate the operation of a human brain in a simulated environment. Similarly, to avoid Thalidomide-style disasters, it would have to simulate the conception, development and growth to adulthood of a human. These things are... physically possible, but have WBE and uploads as a hard requirement. Those are going to affect a…

> In order for an AI to evaluate the effect of a small molecule on the brain, it would have to... simulate the operation of a human brain in a simulated environment. Similarly, to avoid Thalidomide-style disasters, it would have to simulate the conception, development and growth to adulthood of a human.

This is how the human doctors who have cured things in the past have done it, is it?

The way this is going to work, when it happens, is that you'll ask the AI for a cure and it will give you a hundred candidates. A human doctor will look at the list and throw half of them out because they're toxic, several of the remainder will be excluded by animal trials, the few remaining will proceed to human clinical trials and one of them will actually work.

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