Earlier quoted context omitted.
That would be rather defeating their purpose. We put golden records on the Voyager probes, which included instructions for reading them, so that should another intelligent civilization be in their flight path they can learn of our existence and some of our culture.
A time when we were too young to conceive of the Dark Forest.
Voyager 1 stops communicating with Earth
171–180 of 649 posts
Re: Voyager 1 stops communicating with Earth
#172Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you design so that it has a 99.9999% chance of working for 5 years it's going to work for much longer. It'd be very hard to design it in a way that it didn't.
Overengineering is building in buffers that you didn't actually need. But it may be much later when anyone can prove it. See also the roman aqueducts. Today we would have used about half as much stone, and they'd be falling apart in our lifetimes. Instead, lucky chunks of them have lasted 20 times as long as anyone ever could have expected to need them.
Reinforced concrete and masonry design are underappreciated disciplines of modern engineering, but their Achilles heel is that reinforcement rusts, rust expands, and expansion ruptures. All at relatively accelerated speeds.
Things like the aqueducts weren't necessarily overengineered, they were just designed (mostly) without quickly deteriorating elements, like steel.
Which is to say, 2000 yrs ago, the design of an aqueduct with a 10yr lifespan didn't differ much compared to a hypothetical one with a 100yr or even 1000yr lifespan. At least compared to how things would be done today.
Much of space design seems to be similar, where the minimum requirements aren't that far off from what seems like excessive engineering. But that doesn't necessarily mean anything was "overengineered".
Re: Voyager 1 stops communicating with Earth
#173Earlier quoted context omitted.
The manhole cover from Operation Plumbob? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Plumbbob
Launch velocity was estimated at 66km/s. 11 of that would be burned climbing out of Earth's gravity well leaving us with a velocity of 55 km/s relative to Earth. It will take another 42 km/s to escape the solar system, so that would be a velocity of 13 km/s at escape. Voyager 1 is traveling at 17 km/s, so would either be ahead of it or will catch it eventually. But this doesn't account for the earth's orbit at 30 km/…
The Wikipedia page has the date, time, and location for the Pascal-B test:
August 27, 1957 22:35:00.0, 37.04903°N 116.0347°W
So that would have been 10:35PM local daylight savings time from southern Nevada, so 9:30PM solar time.
Turns out the potential adder from earth's rotation is a negligible ~0.37 km/s at that latitude. With earth tilted by 23.5 degrees, we have it launched 37-23.5 = 13.5 degrees away from the orbital plane. That seems smallish, so let's ignore that. Seems like the best time would have been around 6AM to add to the orbital velocity and 6PM to be about the worst, subtracting off the orbital velocity. At 9:30PM, our 55 km/s launch vector is 127.5 degrees (8.5/24*360) away from the 30 km/s orbit vector. For a combined velocity of around 43.8 km/s. Check my math.
Re: Voyager 1 stops communicating with Earth
#174> While the spacecraft can still receive and carry out commands transmitted from the mission team, a problem with that telecommunications unit means no science or engineering data from Voyager 1 is being returned to Earth. A probe going further in space than any other that suddenly starts sending back incomprehensible science data is a pretty killer start to a sci-fi movie if you ask me.
Re: Voyager 1 stops communicating with Earth
#175Re: Voyager 1 stops communicating with Earth
#176Voyager 1 is so far away that it takes 22.5 hours for commands sent from Earth to reach the spacecraft. Additionally, the team must wait 45 hours to receive a response. I’m guessing “hotfix” commits don’t exist in this domain
The use of "additionally" is weird here. A full roundtrip is 45 hours. It doesn't take 22.5 + 45 hours to receive a response. 45 = 22.5 + 22.5.
The transmitter on Earth can be massive with an enormous power budget. Sending from Voyager might be much more constrained: less compute to compress the payload, less power to send it.
The speed of light is obviously the same either way but it’s not obvious to me that the speed of a byte (error corrected, etc) must be.
Re: Voyager 1 stops communicating with Earth
#177I always have a sense of pride and a feeling of respect for us as a human race when reading about V'ger. It's astonishing that we were able to send a space probe, designed and built to be so robust that it's still doing its thing and sending us postcards after 46 years(!!!) of flying away from us in an extremely harmful environment, while we still fuck simple stuff up back home.
So true. NASA's achievements are the highest of human accomplishments, imo. Sometimes I picture being on the team that built these triumphs, I think I would be overtaken with pride forever.
Re: Voyager 1 stops communicating with Earth
#178Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you design so that it has a 99.9999% chance of working for 5 years it's going to work for much longer. It'd be very hard to design it in a way that it didn't.
Would it be cheaper/equally effective to go for one less decimal place and make 10 of them?
The intent of FBC was to decrease the amount of time and cost for each mission and to increase the number of missions and overall scientific results obtained on each mission
That was something of a mixed bag: numerous missions did succeed and returned phenomenal science, but there were also some spectacular and humiliating failures:
In 1999, after the failure of four missions that used the FBC approach for project management, you commissioned several independent reviews to examine FBC and mission failures, search for root causes, and recommend changes.
(Both quotes from the transmittal letter for NASA's 2001 report on the policy, as subsequent sentences.)
https://oig.nasa.gov/audits/reports/FY01/ig-01-009.pdf>
It turns out that space is an unbelievably unforgiving environment, and attempting to perform repairs, maintenance, tune-ups, and/or mitigations at distances of hundreds of millions or billions of kilometers, often at the end of hours-long round-trip speed-of-light lags, is challenging at best.
At the same time, FBC mitigated risks, and some of the problem may well have been a failure to manage expectations: with FBC, some missions would succeed, whilst others would not. But even in that context, gambling losses on $150 million bets remain painful. (It's worth considering that there have since been numerous failures by other nations attempting various space missions, this isn't a failing of the US alone.)
It's also worth considering that earlier missions, notably Apollo & Skylab, suffered numerous critical incidents, one fatally catastrophic (and that on the ground), but any one of which could have resulted in total mission losses, including lighting strikes on launch, computer failures on Lunar landing (Apollo 11), wiring-induced oxygen tank explosion (Apollo 13, resulting in abort of the planned landing), and failure to deploy Skylab's solar panel and sunsheild. People tend to remember the major incidents of Apollos 1 and 13, but not the numerous other close calls. The US Space Shuttle programme similarly had two catastrophic failures but each occurred within the context of numerous other close calls. The envelope for both error and deviance is vanishingly thin.
Since the early 2000s, NASA have modulated their approach to FBC. Some missions, such as the JWST, are absolute monoliths and relied on extensive and expensive testing and development, which has paid off with absolutely flawless execution of launch and deployment and truly universe-expanding insights. Others, such as the Mars rover programs, have iterated on concepts starting with small, cheap, and simple rovers of limited range to incorporating a "technology demonstrator" in the form of the Ingenuity heliocopter which accompanies the SUV-sized Perseverance rover. The Huygans lander (part of the Saturn-based Cassini mission, landing on the moon Titan), and Galileo probe (part of the Galileo orbiter mission) both rode along with and extended orbiter-probe missions to provide actual contact with planetary or lunar atmosphere and/or surfaces.
More on FBC:
"'Faster, better, and cheaper' at NASA: Lessons learned in managing and accepting risk"
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00945...>
"Faster, Better, Cheaper: A maligned era of NASA's history"
https://www.elizabethafrank.com/colliding-worlds/fbc>
Re: Voyager 1 stops communicating with Earth
#179Earlier quoted context omitted.
The use of "additionally" is weird here. A full roundtrip is 45 hours. It doesn't take 22.5 + 45 hours to receive a response. 45 = 22.5 + 22.5.
Are we all sure the times aren’t asymmetric? The transmitter on Earth can be massive with an enormous power budget. Sending from Voyager might be much more constrained: less compute to compress the payload, less power to send it. The speed of light is obviously the same either way but it’s not obvious to me that the speed of a byte (error corrected, etc) must be.
It's not obvious that it is :) We don't have any way to prove that it is the same, because every experiment to measure the speed of light going from A to B requires some light to go from B to A which cancels out any difference. We just assume that it is the same because we don't have any reason to believe it's not.
Veritasium video on this topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTn6Ewhb27k
Re: Voyager 1 stops communicating with Earth
#180Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you design so that it has a 99.9999% chance of working for 5 years it's going to work for much longer. It'd be very hard to design it in a way that it didn't.
Would it be cheaper/equally effective to go for one less decimal place and make 10 of them?
But a large part of the cost is not just construction but testing and verification. Not only that it does what it needs to do, but that it survives launch without destroying itself, survives being in a vacuum etc.
Most of that testing is specific to how each individual item was manufactured, so there's little cost saving if any to be had there.
Then there's the price of the launch, and the time on the radio dishes to follow them.