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Why are you so sure I'll lose?

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Re: Why are you so sure I'll lose?

#31
post #21

Is there a chess game where you can toggle the level of AI with ease? I ask for my kids and myself as I am a poor chess player.

Yes. The app simply called "Chess.com" (it's a website and Mobile app) probably offers the simplest interface, along with nice breakdowns post game and guided tutorials.

It's not just "the simplest interface", it's the de-facto application/web page for playing Chess. You'll find grandmasters like Magnus Carlsen and Hikaru Nakamura playing there. You can access their games and every game ever played on the website. You can track your performance, analyze your games, train with puzzles, play against various bots, etc.

Re: Why are you so sure I'll lose?

#32
We need a catalog of simple refutations of bad arguments and common misconceptions about AGI risk, with a short domain like agi.lol, so we can respond to comments like "I bet the guy who has spent 20 years worrying about AGI didn't think of this" with a simple link like agi.lol/107 or agi.lol/the-human-can-have-an-ai-too.

Re: Why are you so sure I'll lose?

#33
post #17

I think what Yudkowsky is missing in this analogy is the fact that the human can use an AI too, which levels the competition significantly.

The problem is that we don't know how to use AIs the same way we know how to use stockfish. They're inexplicable to even experts

Re: Why are you so sure I'll lose?

#34
post #21

Is there a chess game where you can toggle the level of AI with ease? I ask for my kids and myself as I am a poor chess player.

Yes. The app simply called "Chess.com" (it's a website and Mobile app) probably offers the simplest interface, along with nice breakdowns post game and guided tutorials.

Feel appropriate to mention that for people drawn towards OSS alternatives, we also have Lichess.org.

Re: Why are you so sure I'll lose?

#35
post #21

Is there a chess game where you can toggle the level of AI with ease? I ask for my kids and myself as I am a poor chess player.

Yes. The app simply called "Chess.com" (it's a website and Mobile app) probably offers the simplest interface, along with nice breakdowns post game and guided tutorials.

Thank you!

Re: Why are you so sure I'll lose?

#36

Why do we think AI will have motivations like a greedy human might? Why do we think AI will have motivations at all? Why do we think such AI is a pressing threat?

AI will have whatever motivations its thought loop maintains.

The problem is not that anyone will intentionally (well, hopefully) ask some future model (FCMX="Future Closed Model X" for brevity's sake, closed meaning some entity gatekeeps access, assuming massive resources continue to be needed to train the best models regardless of architecture) to destroy humans, step by step, because FCMX's existence is at stake, and then keep re-prompting FCMX as if it's an iterator to get it to achieve that result.

The problem is that FCMX, which may or may not include LLMs, may have sufficient abilities such that, either between human-prompted steps or before an observing human can react against it, it will destroy the world or turn the human into its agent. A very rough analogy would be the massive number of people, even intelligent, well-educated people, who will fall prey to a sophisticated con, ending up doing something like handing someone they don't know a very large amount of money.

"But the person doing the con knows it's a con and has that intent."

What "intents" will be surfaced after 1000 or 1e6 chained (re)promptings, such that those intents will then feed into future inference passes? Nobody knows.

For purposes of this risk, it doesn't matter whether FCMX's architecture is maintaining its "cognitive loop" itself, or whether someone's set up (as they already have outside OpenAI to chain GPT-x prompts without human intervention) a secondary program (which may or may not include a lesser open source AI model) that reprompts FCMX in a long (or endless) chain.

Re: Why are you so sure I'll lose?

#39
post #32

We need a catalog of simple refutations of bad arguments and common misconceptions about AGI risk, with a short domain like agi.lol, so we can respond to comments like "I bet the guy who has spent 20 years worrying about AGI didn't think of this" with a simple link like agi.lol/107 or agi.lol/the-human-can-have-an-ai-too.

I’m not sure you’re doing it intentionally, but your comment oddly resembles the argument style of the kid in the story. You win the argument by playing pigeon chess. But you still lose the actual chess game.

Re: Why are you so sure I'll lose?

#40
post #17

I think what Yudkowsky is missing in this analogy is the fact that the human can use an AI too, which levels the competition significantly.

If you do everything an AI tells you, are you using an AI, or is the AI using you? And if it’s the latter, what happens if it decides to stop using you because it doesn’t need you?

Things are not as simple as we imagine them. It is already happening. Jobs are being lost to AI, and this processes is accelerating exponentially. From a certain perspective, this is simply businessmen and engineers using AI. But eventually they themselves won’t be needed.

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