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Why are you so sure I'll lose?

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Re: Why are you so sure I'll lose?

#11
post #6

A nice allegory about strong AI.

If only chess were a nice allegory for life.

I remember a quote "Life is like Tetris, stop playing it like chess." I quite like the analogy: you don't have perfect information and what matters is how you deal with what you get.

(After googling, it turned out to be a blog post: https://observer.com/2016/01/your-life-is-tetris-stop-playin...)

Re: Why are you so sure I'll lose?

#12

Why do we think AI will have motivations like a greedy human might? Why do we think AI will have motivations at all? Why do we think such AI is a pressing threat?

This is actually one of the failure modes described long ago. Paperclip maximizer. An AI that has agency, intelligence, and a goal. In the course of achieving its goal it completely neglects all other considerations. These unaccounted externalities are the danger.

Re: Why are you so sure I'll lose?

#13

Why do we think AI will have motivations like a greedy human might? Why do we think AI will have motivations at all? Why do we think such AI is a pressing threat?

This is actually one of the failure modes described long ago. Paperclip maximizer. An AI that has agency, intelligence, and a goal . In the course of achieving its goal it completely neglects all other considerations. These unaccounted externalities are the danger.

In addition to a hypothetical AI, it sounds like you are describing real companies here.

Re: Why are you so sure I'll lose?

#14
post #8

Why do we think AI will have motivations like a greedy human might? Why do we think AI will have motivations at all? Why do we think such AI is a pressing threat?

I’m not afraid of the motivations of a hypothetical strong AI… I’m absolutely terrified of the motivations of those who can afford to employ weak AI.

Can you expand on this?

Re: Why are you so sure I'll lose?

#15

Why do we think AI will have motivations like a greedy human might? Why do we think AI will have motivations at all? Why do we think such AI is a pressing threat?

It’s not about motivation, it’s about doing whatever it’s been programmed to do, and grabbing whatever means it can to that end. Now something as puny as a large language model won’t have much reach (the current ones can’t even read the internet after the initial learning phase), but if you have a way to give the thing an unbounded goal, then it will use all means at its disposal to make that goal happen.

Heck, even if you just give it some hard maths problem, the machine might think of ways to turn the entire solar system into a giant computer, using us for spare parts along the way. That requires a sufficiently accurate model of the universe of course, as well as ways to harness that model (say the AI starts by convincing humans to build robots and factories — which would be quite easy if it’s good at playing the stock market game).

Re: Why are you so sure I'll lose?

#16
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because you can’t stop people, companies and/or countries from creating AI with those motivations.

I'm not worried about the AI, I'm worried about the people and companies that have it.

The above sentiment is posted many times on every such thread, it would be greatly enriched with am explanation of why you're not worried about the AI. Because worrying about B is not a rationale for not worrying about A.

Re: Why are you so sure I'll lose?

#18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is actually one of the failure modes described long ago. Paperclip maximizer. An AI that has agency, intelligence, and a goal . In the course of achieving its goal it completely neglects all other considerations. These unaccounted externalities are the danger.

In addition to a hypothetical AI, it sounds like you are describing real companies here.

And likewise, corporations have already been described as AIs: https://patternsofmeaning.com/2017/11/30/ai-has-already-take... et al.

Re: Why are you so sure I'll lose?

#19

Why do we think AI will have motivations like a greedy human might? Why do we think AI will have motivations at all? Why do we think such AI is a pressing threat?

Given almost any goal, there are some nearly universal instrumental goals that appear alongside. Including "prevent things from happening that might interfere with achieving the specified end goal" and "gain resources that can be used to achieve the end goal".

Many of these instrumental goals could put humans and human interests at risk.

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