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Bad science and bad statistics in the courtroom convict innocent people

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Bad science and bad statistics in the courtroom convict innocent people

#201
post #116

My father was called for jury duty a few years ago. The case depended on some physics, something about the angles and momentum in a car crash. My father was disqualified, because he's a physics teacher and may have been tempted to interpret the physics expert's testimony instead of blindly accepting it.

Yup. I don't think the problem is the jury, or even the experts. There's a fundamental problem with how the courts use expert testimony to ensure fair justice. I believe the idea is that to ensure fairness, verdicts should not be determined by variances in expertise amongst the jury. I recall being specifically instructed that I was NOT to question the expert testimony based on any prior expertise I might have. It so…

I can imagine that this is required because the vast majority of people have "opinions" on the experts' field. So many people operate on gut feelings and reject science and fact. So they prefer to blanket ban arguing about the experts statement.

Re: Bad science and bad statistics in the courtroom convict innocent people

#202
What do you expect? Just a few days ago we saw this article: "High school math doesn't prepare most students for their college majors", where professors complain that high school math doesn't include enough statistics: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38596191

But maybe in the future some MathGPT can help....

Re: Bad science and bad statistics in the courtroom convict innocent people

#203
post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup. I don't think the problem is the jury, or even the experts. There's a fundamental problem with how the courts use expert testimony to ensure fair justice. I believe the idea is that to ensure fairness, verdicts should not be determined by variances in expertise amongst the jury. I recall being specifically instructed that I was NOT to question the expert testimony based on any prior expertise I might have. It so…

I can imagine that this is required because the vast majority of people have "opinions" on the experts' field. So many people operate on gut feelings and reject science and fact. So they prefer to blanket ban arguing about the experts statement.

The motive is clear, but consequence is that we deliberately choose juries that are fully Dunning-Kreugered. They have to rely on social cues as such to reason about which expert witness is credible... which pretty much undermines the justification for bringing the expertise to court. If you brought in a magician instead, the jury would find them equally credible.

Re: Bad science and bad statistics in the courtroom convict innocent people

#204
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correct me if I'm off base here, but this seems to be absolute nonsense: > Like many on EM, Ross was never granted movement outside his home even once, not even to buy food. His sister, a manager at Securitas, helped when she could, but work got in the way sometimes, he said. So, they replaced the box you sit in with a box that you pay for and provide no additional services with all the same restrictions. What the fu…

I wasn't allowed to leave for food. The judge told me he would not grant my request to leave for food. "Have you heard of Amazon? Order it online." he said. Then when I ordered it online he gave me five months in jail saying he never gave me permission to use the Internet :D

Most of these people aren't very bright.

Re: Bad science and bad statistics in the courtroom convict innocent people

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've gone through the system in a similar fashion, but with no where near the same outcome as you did. If I hadn't gone through a similar situation I would almost believe that you were making it up, that's how ridiculous this is. For context I got stopped in a car with a friend who had weed (unknown to me at the time), had a really old warrant for something like a missed child support payment (also didn't know), and…

No, you're not taking anything away. Your situation is (sadly) very common indeed. And as you say, if you start missing child support payments the judge will hit you with contempt charges and put you straight back in jail for several months to teach you a lesson. If you had ended up in jail the case might have run on for months or years. Once you are inside a jail you lose most contact with your attorney and your sup…

When it comes to enforcing custody orders, however, the courts are suddenly as impotent as their 90-year old judges.

"That's a criminal matter - go to the police", say the courts.

"That's a civil matter - go to the courts", say the police.

Morons and Political Hacks[1], the lot of 'em.

  [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQ09bnZ747w
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