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Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

nytimes.com

251–260 of 362 posts

Re: Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

#251
post #189

There's an increase in incidents because ATCs are overworked and understaffed. The knee-jerk reaction is to try to automate the work away. A few problems with that kind of thinking: - Automation already exists - e.g., the collision detection warning mentioned in the article. I don't know much about air traffic control but I imagine there's some element of defense in depth. ATCs dozing off or running on fumes won't ca…

The lack of automation is causing ATC work to be stressful. People orchestrating complex procedures over a shared vhf radio channel is inherently hard and error prone. Which is why it involves people endlessly confirming and double checking known bits of information. Automation could simplify that a lot and remove a lot of the uncertainty. Making communications easier might save some lives. A lot of accidents are cau…

They've been talking about automated ATC for at least 20 years now, in part for getting the benefit of more flights arriving and departing per hour than humans can safely manage. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Generation_Air_Transporta...

Re: Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

#252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lack of automation is causing ATC work to be stressful. People orchestrating complex procedures over a shared vhf radio channel is inherently hard and error prone. Which is why it involves people endlessly confirming and double checking known bits of information. Automation could simplify that a lot and remove a lot of the uncertainty. Making communications easier might save some lives. A lot of accidents are cau…

> The lack of automation is causing ATC work to be stressful. … > And it would free up ATC staff and pilots to do more urgent things. There’s a problem that can happen with this, though, wherein the “easy” routine work is automated out and the number of humans involved is scaled down, but the work those people do then winds up being 100% the urgent/stressful stuff. I’ve heard that ER doctors have been experiencing th…

I agree we might need a minimum staff level of, say, 1 air traffic controller per airport, but unless I've been grievously misinformed about the safety of flying, urgent/stressful emergencies should be very rare.

I suspect the main thing limiting ATC automation is the fact ATC is all done by voice using incredibly shitty radios, and equipment upgrades take like 50 years to roll out.

Re: Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

#254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I followed road traffic safety since 2020 closely (and have submitted and posted about it here) and traffic fatalities is slowly coming down since 2020. My hypothesis about it was that the empty roads in 2020 caused drivers to degenerate in terms of road manners. For example, deaths per mile actually increased in 2020 despite people driving fewer miles which suggests people drove less safely. On the other hand this a…

I’ve noticed a pretty drastic decline in driving behavior around here. We’re seeing a LOT more just absolutely insane drivers doing things you’d only see in the worst of compilations a few years ago. Something happened during Covid that made people just not care anymore. Also doesn’t help that cops are not pulling people over as much as they should. Watched someone just yesterday fly through a red right in from of a…

Yes. I think about this all the time. It's so strange, and aside from internet comments it doesn't seem to come up in the mainstream. What happened to people? Why do they not care? It's very evident in driving, but shows up in other areas as well.

Re: Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

#255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Air traffic is up this year only 4%, would that naturally correspond to a 65% increase in significant incidents? The issue isn't whether or not people are tacitly insisting certain people "deserve" to be in certain positions due to their race/background, and those against DEI are lamenting the loss of the soft apartheid we had in the US that gradually eroded with the civil rights movement. The issue is: in chasing de…

The load on the National Airspace System (NAS) has been growing each year, with slight a dip due to COVID. The FAA has provides 20-year outlooks for a set of metrics, including the number of operations performed with the NAS. https://www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/2022-06/FY2022_42_FA... See Page 33 and 34 for a breakdown in the numbers. We're looking at 50 million to 62 million operations per year within the NAS. T…

>The question asking if DEI is lowering standards is bunk

>The FAA does not lower standards for ATCS.

What's your take on this then?

>The hiring process for aspiring federal air traffic controllers from approved Air Traffic Collegiate Training Initiative (AT-CTI) institutions has undergone several revisions in recent years. Prior to 2014, graduates from AT-CTI programs were given preferential hiring from the FAA. In 2014, the FAA announced that AT-CTI graduates would equally compete with thousands of people the FAA calls “off the street hires”--anyone can literally walk in off the street without any previous training and apply for a federal air traffic control job. To apply, the FAA requires that a candidate has United States (U.S.) citizenship, a high school diploma, speaks English, and passes the FAA’s new Biographical Questionnaire (BQ).

>Another concerning perspective from AT-CTI administrators is that CTI graduates are at an employment disadvantage with the new hiring initiatives. One of the responding administrators expressed concern that off the street applicants have increased odds of employment over CTI applicants because CTI students are combined in track one with Veteran’s Readjustment Appointment (VRA) applicants putting CTI students second while all off the street applicants are grouped as one and have an equal opportunity for selection.

>The new FAA hiring protocol for federal air traffic controllers that was implemented in February 2014 included several significant changes. In particular, the FAA reduced the role of the CTI-approved program; therefore, the only remaining advantage for CTI graduates is that they are eligible to bypass the Air Traffic Basics Course, which is the first five weeks of qualification training at the FAA Academy in Oklahoma City (FAA, 2018). In addition, the FAA introduced the Biographical Questionnaire which was envisioned to predict controller performance through a process of asking individuals to recall their typical and/or specific behaviors from earlier times in their lives. But due to the lengthy process of hiring and training an air traffic controller which can take several years, it is too soon to conclude whether the FAA’s new hiring policies improved the ability to hire individuals who are more likely to successfully become federal controllers (FAA, 2017b).

https://ojs.library.okstate.edu/osu/index.php/CARI/article/v...

This publication specifically questions whether the new hiring process selects more qualified individuals than the old hiring policies. It also seems to corroborate some of the claims made in the Wall Street Journal article:

https://archive.is/lDyOB

Re: Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

#256
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or maybe ACT test scores have plummeted because these students have experienced 1-2 years of remote teaching, which might have been less effective than in-person school?

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Re: Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

#257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lack of automation is causing ATC work to be stressful. People orchestrating complex procedures over a shared vhf radio channel is inherently hard and error prone. Which is why it involves people endlessly confirming and double checking known bits of information. Automation could simplify that a lot and remove a lot of the uncertainty. Making communications easier might save some lives. A lot of accidents are cau…

> The lack of automation is causing ATC work to be stressful. … > And it would free up ATC staff and pilots to do more urgent things. There’s a problem that can happen with this, though, wherein the “easy” routine work is automated out and the number of humans involved is scaled down, but the work those people do then winds up being 100% the urgent/stressful stuff. I’ve heard that ER doctors have been experiencing th…

> I’ve heard that ER doctors have been experiencing this in recent years–not quite with automation so much as just offloading, as less serious cases are picked up by nurse practitioners/urgent care centers, staffing has been adjusted and the actual physicians wind up with a steady stream of stressful high-acuity cases back to back to back.

Yet at the same time, ERs (near me at least) are still inundated with so many patients that average wait times are 4-5hrs.

Re: Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

#258
post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lack of automation is causing ATC work to be stressful. People orchestrating complex procedures over a shared vhf radio channel is inherently hard and error prone. Which is why it involves people endlessly confirming and double checking known bits of information. Automation could simplify that a lot and remove a lot of the uncertainty. Making communications easier might save some lives. A lot of accidents are cau…

They've been talking about automated ATC for at least 20 years now, in part for getting the benefit of more flights arriving and departing per hour than humans can safely manage. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Generation_Air_Transporta...

They have been working on automated ATC for a lot longer than 20 years. I worked at Eurocontrol 1991-1996 where they had been developing a system called ARC2000 since well before I arrived. As the name suggests it was intended to take over ATC in Europe by the year 2000. I worked on a less ambitious system that helped visualise conflicts for manual resolution but that was not a big priority so I eventually left.

Re: Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

#259
post #189

There's an increase in incidents because ATCs are overworked and understaffed. The knee-jerk reaction is to try to automate the work away. A few problems with that kind of thinking: - Automation already exists - e.g., the collision detection warning mentioned in the article. I don't know much about air traffic control but I imagine there's some element of defense in depth. ATCs dozing off or running on fumes won't ca…

The lack of automation is causing ATC work to be stressful. People orchestrating complex procedures over a shared vhf radio channel is inherently hard and error prone. Which is why it involves people endlessly confirming and double checking known bits of information. Automation could simplify that a lot and remove a lot of the uncertainty. Making communications easier might save some lives. A lot of accidents are cau…

An uncurrent pilot is not inherently an unsafe pilot.

Re: Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

#260
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or maybe ACT test scores have plummeted because these students have experienced 1-2 years of remote teaching, which might have been less effective than in-person school?

> Or maybe ACT test scores have plummeted because these students have experienced 1-2 years of remote teaching, which might have been less effective than in-person school? As I mentioned in another post, you can check this theory against the pandemic control-group that kept schools open: https://www.thelocal.se/20231205/swedish-students-maths-and-...

You're drawing a very simple conclusion from quite a complex article though. Some of the things it is noting:

* School closures during the Covid-19 pandemic were one factor behind the unprecedented decrease across the OECD.

* The general decline also began before the pandemic.

* Immigration was quite probably a factor.

Even without getting in to the details.

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