The "Monte-Carlo tree search" space is usually far too large for this to work well!
It is true that initially you may not know where the bug is but you have to collect more evidence if possible, see if you can always cause the bug to manifest itself by some tests, explore it further, the goal being to form a hypothesis as to what the cause may be. Then you test the hypothesis, and if the test fails then you form another hypothesis. If the test succeeds, you refine the hypothesis until you find what is going wrong.
Such hypotheses are not formed randomly. You learn more about what may be the problem by varying external conditions or reading the code or single stepping or setting breakpoints and examining program state, by adding printfs etc. You can also use any help the compiler gives you, or use techniques like binary search through commits to narrow down the amount of code you have to explore. The goal is to form a mental model of the program fragment around where the code might be so that you can reason about how things are going wrong.
Another thing to note is you make the smallest possible change to test a hypothesis, at least if the bug is timing or a concurrency related. Some changes may change timing sufficiently that the bug hides. If the symptom disappears, it doesn't mean you solved the problem -- you must understand why and understand if the symptom disappeared or the bug get fixed. In one case as I fixed secondary bugs, the system stayed up longer and longer. But these are like accessories to the real murderer. You have to stay on the trail until you nail the real killer!
Another way of looking at this: a crime has been committed and since you don't know who the culprit is or where you may find evidence, you disturb the crime scene as little as possible, and restore things in case you have to move something.
But this is not usually what happens. People change things around without clear thinking -- change some code just because they don't like it or they think it can be improved or simplified -- and the symptom disappears and they declare success. Or they form a hypothesis, assume it is right and proceed to make the "fix" and if that doesn't work, they make another similar leap of logic. Or they fix a secondary issue, not the root cause so that the same bug will manifest again in a different place.