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Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

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Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#141

Post by philipkglass »

Beijinger wrote: post #133
gumby wrote: post #35

As famously predicted by Julian Simon back in the 70s and 80s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon–Ehrlich_wager

"The Simon–Ehrlich wager was a 1980 scientific wager between business professor Julian L. Simon and biologist Paul Ehrlich, betting on a mutually agreed-upon measure of resource scarcity over the decade leading up to 1990." Interesting. But the club of Rome predicted in the 70ies problems for the first half of the 21st century. And I think they are going to win the bet. Two blogs I can recommend: 1. https://senecaeff…

Gail Tverberg, author of Our Finite World, has a long track record of being incorrect. I don't think that she is a credible prognosticator.

Did she ever go back and explain why she was so wrong the first time around with predictions like these?

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2007/07/16/what-is-peak-oil/

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2007/07/16/is-this-a-false-alarm/

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2007/08/06/peak-oil-whats-ahead/

Did she make more cautious predictions going forward, after making such badly failed predictions 16 years ago? If she did, I didn't see it. It looks like Our Finite World is still a drumbeat of predictions about crises just ahead. If she's eventually correct about a specific prediction it will be a case of the stopped clock showing the correct time by chance.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#142

Post by wkat4242 »

93po wrote: post #134
RobRivera wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldnt you want to have a motherlode hoarded when supplies dry up 100 years from now, a commodity that fuels advanced avionics?

There is virtually no way we will ever run out of lithium. It is massively abundant. It's just a matter of how much it costs to extract it. And we'll surely have fusion energy/abundant energy in 100 years and it will make the cost of extraction very close to zero.

Yeah it's called a rare earth mineral because the concentration in ore is so low not because there's little of it in total.

It does unfortunately mean that you need to excavate a lot to mine it which is not great for the environment either (even though lithium is currently key to most renewable technologies)

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#143

Post by kjkjadksj »

93po wrote: post #134
RobRivera wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldnt you want to have a motherlode hoarded when supplies dry up 100 years from now, a commodity that fuels advanced avionics?

There is virtually no way we will ever run out of lithium. It is massively abundant. It's just a matter of how much it costs to extract it. And we'll surely have fusion energy/abundant energy in 100 years and it will make the cost of extraction very close to zero.

I’m sure the nuclear physicists 100 years ago assumed the same about our fission energy output by today.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#144

Post by VintageCool »

throwitaway222 wrote: post #62

Worlds largest lithium deposit found in NV, a state which is 90% government owned, and we're having trouble deciding what to do. Other countries are probably going like - wow, they just found a Lithium mine and they're just going to sit on it... and they are asking us to ramp up production???

Construction of the lithium mine at Thacker Pass began in June, and it is expected to start producing lithium by 2026.

There is a (super nutty) environmentalist group and some Native Americans protesting and trying to delay the mine, but it looks like they have so far been unsuccessful at convincing judges, and blockers have been getting cleared out.

I consider myself an environmentalist, so I'm a bit sensitive about descriptions like "nutty environmentalist", but... the group protesting the Thacker Pass mine is weird and I think largely repudiated by other environmentalists. I mean, they're trying to stop the transition to clean energy. These guys advocate for total deindustrialization, return to a pre-agriculture way of life, only as many humans as the hunter-and-gatherer lifestyle can support, and they're... deeply anti-trans?

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#145

Post by epistasis »

benbojangles wrote: post #137

Not sure it 'collapsed'. Probably leveraged to undercut oil.

Even at its peak, it barely caused a change in battery prices.

It's going to be really hard to undercut oil by dropping lithium prices, as nickel is a bigger contributor to cost.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#146

Post by benbojangles »

epistasis wrote: post #145
benbojangles wrote: post #137

Not sure it 'collapsed'. Probably leveraged to undercut oil.

Even at its peak, it barely caused a change in battery prices. It's going to be really hard to undercut oil by dropping lithium prices, as nickel is a bigger contributor to cost.

Nickel also down in price

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#147

Post by epistasis »

benbojangles wrote: post #146
epistasis wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even at its peak, it barely caused a change in battery prices. It's going to be really hard to undercut oil by dropping lithium prices, as nickel is a bigger contributor to cost.

Nickel also down in price

Not sure which players could cause huge shifts in both lithium and nickel commodity prices, for the goal of undercutting oil. Especially since standard learning curves deliver huge drops in battery prices year after year anyway. Seems like a futile effort.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#148

Post by VygmraMGVl »

wkat4242 wrote: post #142
93po wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is virtually no way we will ever run out of lithium. It is massively abundant. It's just a matter of how much it costs to extract it. And we'll surely have fusion energy/abundant energy in 100 years and it will make the cost of extraction very close to zero.

Yeah it's called a rare earth mineral because the concentration in ore is so low not because there's little of it in total. It does unfortunately mean that you need to excavate a lot to mine it which is not great for the environment either (even though lithium is currently key to most renewable technologies)

Lithium is not a rare earth mineral. Typical weight fraction in ore is 0.5-8%.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#149

Post by dogcomplex »

cgb223 wrote: post #76
Hayvok wrote: post #38

> The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate, trading in Shanghai and serving as a benchmark I'm not sure why the Shanghai price is being used as the global benchmark without any qualification in this article, because in 2022 China was paying 2x per KG more than the U.S.A. and Europe. Everybody saw a significant increase, but nobody quite like China, where it looks like a bubble. Prices have come down globally…

Why was China paying so much more? Just to ensure they would have enough for their needs?

They dramatically increased demand lately for solar production, so they were probably the cause of and epicenter of the global shortage - paying the premium as a cost of doing business while lithium production caught up.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#150

Post by lucubratory »

cgb223 wrote: post #138
pixl97 wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where is lithium made versus where is it used. For example if there was not enough shipping routes to China from where it's made then that could be an issue. Or if their demand was up, and there wasn't enough unloading capacity for lithium (not sure how this is being shipped over there) then there can be price spikes.

I’m not a shipping expert by any means but if any country in the world would have a shipping route to it, surely it would be China no? They manufacture basically everything and export a ton

Australia is a large supplier of lithium, the world's largest actually. Due to trade restrictions and irregularities arising from disputes, trade between China and Australia wasn't operating normally in 2022. Trade has now mostly resumed and the first bulkers left Australian ports for Chinese ports early this year carrying lithium ore. I suspect the absence of the Australian market meant that Chile could set their prices, and it looks like they set their prices pretty high. Plus, Chile is a longer and thus more expensive trip for any ship, including a bulker.

The high lithium prices in China were the Chinese side of the trade restrictions causing economic pain.

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