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Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

wolfstreet.com

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Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#31

Post by barelyauser »

ceejayoz wrote: post #24
cft wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since the end of the USD as the world reserve currency is imminent, the wisest thing US government can do is promote and favor Bitcoin. It's better to have a world reserve currency that no one controls, than CNY.

Yes, let's run the world economy off a currency that could halve in value if Satoshi Nakamoto finds an old USB drive sitting around somewhere.

I suppose this is a better arrangement than the current system, where they key figures know exactly where the money printer is at all times.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#33

Post by wredue »

TomK32 wrote: post #14

Clickbaiting heading. The price is still 300% compared to the low in August 2020.

Lithium was also bouncing around the usual pump and dump suspects like Wallstreetbets for a while.

Probably, someone with influence lost money buying at the top and is pushing articles to try to recoup their losses.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#34

Post by nicoburns »

infofarmer wrote: post #15
grecy wrote: post #8

This is fantastic news, and means the price of EVs and large utility scale batteries will continue to fall much faster than anyone predicted.

Lithium is <10% cost of a battery. Presumably much less now. Doesn't affect the price of EVs that much yet.

What makes up the majority of the cost?

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#37

Post by epistasis »

Even with recent price spikes on various component prices, the price of the overall good sold continues its march downwards. BNEF's annual survey showed a 14% decrease in prices (other price surveys will show different results).

https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-...

The single component price, even of the component namesake of the battery, does not cause huge fluctuations in the overall cost of the battery due to the small amount of lithium cost in the battery and the substitution possibilities for all the other components.

And there's even a chance that sodium substitution for lithium could be used in a ton of applications soon.

Batteries and renewables are not like oil: a single commodity price fluctuation is not going to disrupt entire economies. They are a much more stable foundation upon which to build an economy.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#38

Post by Hayvok »

> The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate, trading in Shanghai and serving as a benchmark

I'm not sure why the Shanghai price is being used as the global benchmark without any qualification in this article, because in 2022 China was paying 2x per KG more than the U.S.A. and Europe. Everybody saw a significant increase, but nobody quite like China, where it looks like a bubble.

Prices have come down globally in 2023, but the Chinese price is now much closer to the U.S. and European price.

Regional price index: https://businessanalytiq.com/procurementanalytics/index/lith...

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#39

Post by nicoburns »

Eumenes wrote: post #6
toomuchtodo wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time to ramp utility scale energy storage. Make batteries while the inputs are cheap. https://www.pcienergysolutions.com/2022/04/27/how-quickly-ca... https://www.iea.org/energy-system/electricity/grid-scale-sto... https://insideevs.com/news/692788/tesla-battery-energy-stora... (edit: as the cost of renewables approaches sub $0.01/kwh wholesale, storage/transmission/distribution become the primary costs of energy)

How challenging is it to DIY your own lithium battery packs?

It's definitely doable. There are plenty of tutorials out there on the internet. But like others have said, there's plenty that can go wrong if you don't get it right (a fire that can't be put out).

Personally I would consider building one myself, but there's no way I'd keep it in my house (it would be going in a fireproof metal shed at the bottom of the garden or similar). And tbh, that's probably more trouble (and expense) than just buying a commercial one.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#40

Post by wongarsu »

Eumenes wrote: post #6
toomuchtodo wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time to ramp utility scale energy storage. Make batteries while the inputs are cheap. https://www.pcienergysolutions.com/2022/04/27/how-quickly-ca... https://www.iea.org/energy-system/electricity/grid-scale-sto... https://insideevs.com/news/692788/tesla-battery-energy-stora... (edit: as the cost of renewables approaches sub $0.01/kwh wholesale, storage/transmission/distribution become the primary costs of energy)

How challenging is it to DIY your own lithium battery packs?

For stationary applications like a UPS or a power wall LiFePo4 is pretty safe and easy to set up. LiIon is obviously better for mobile use cases and easier to get used cells for, but it's also a lot more unstable and dangerous.
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