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Gold prices are hitting records

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31–40 of 87 posts

Re: Gold prices are hitting records

#31
post #8

The US real estate to gold ration has always facinated me: https://www.longtermtrends.net/real-estate-gold-ratio/ If you bought a house with gold in 1890 or 2023, the price would be... about the same.

But the gold can only recently be held in an ETC and would cost money to securely store for most of that time. The house could be rented and yield an income.

A house also needs upkeep. Usually that’s around the same amount as rent. In some markets like Munich rent is not even enough to pay that.

Re: Gold prices are hitting records

#32
post #2

If you adjust for inflation, there have been 3 periods in the last 50 years with higher gold values. https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-...

the gold price serves as an independent yardstick for the level of real inflation. it defeats the purpose to 'adjust for inflation'. 'adjusting for inflation, prices have been remarkably stable for the past century'

> for the level of real inflation

I'm not normally doing much business in gold, the value of gold compared to the dollar is nearly meaningless to me. I do often buy things like food and energy. To me the value of the dollar compared to a gallon of gas or a plate of food or a kWh of electricity is the "real" inflation.

The value of gold isn't "real" to me or most consumers.

Re: Gold prices are hitting records

#33
post #3
post #2

If you adjust for inflation, there have been 3 periods in the last 50 years with higher gold values. https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-...

Looks like Great Depression, 1979/1980, and right after the Great Recession. What is the significance of 79/80?

Volcker and stagflation. Rather than fix the economy by raising rates and being accused of politics, Fed kept rates artificially low (which, incidentally, attributed somewhat to the US political shift that year).

Re: Gold prices are hitting records

#34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I forget where I heard it. Supposedly the amount of silver needed to buy a goat during Roman times is similar to today. Cold metal seems to act as cold storage of value across history.

>Supposedly the amount of silver needed to buy a goat during Roman times is similar to today. Probably not during famines.

Ackchyually...if you compare ancient famine surge pricing to modern, stable, non-famine pricing then probably not. But go somewhere on earth where famine is still a real thing without humanitarian aid and compare famine-to-famine pricing. I imagine it would probably be similar.

Re: Gold prices are hitting records

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I forget where I heard it. Supposedly the amount of silver needed to buy a goat during Roman times is similar to today. Cold metal seems to act as cold storage of value across history.

That would be fascinating, if true. It requires balancing so many things. We keep mining, so supply is increasing, but so is population and thus demand. We keep making more efficient ways to mine silver which should make it cost more silver, but we are also getting more efficient at herding goats making it cheaper. It's crazy that many factors could be/stay in balance. It makes me wonder whether those factors are act…

Would be even crazier if the causality flows from the amount of the mineral available - i.e. can't have a larger population without mining more of the silver (which could be correlated with mining a whole bunch of other minerals involved in the supporting economy etc.).

Re: Gold prices are hitting records

#37
post #8

The US real estate to gold ration has always facinated me: https://www.longtermtrends.net/real-estate-gold-ratio/ If you bought a house with gold in 1890 or 2023, the price would be... about the same.

I forget where I heard it. Supposedly the amount of silver needed to buy a goat during Roman times is similar to today. Cold metal seems to act as cold storage of value across history.

Hm, sources seem to vary a lot ... but they all seem to be within a single order of magnitude at least.

Re: Gold prices are hitting records

#38
post #2

If you adjust for inflation, there have been 3 periods in the last 50 years with higher gold values. https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-...

the gold price serves as an independent yardstick for the level of real inflation. it defeats the purpose to 'adjust for inflation'. 'adjusting for inflation, prices have been remarkably stable for the past century'

I flatiron is a relative term. yes, if you define gold as the unit of value, then it can not inflate or deflate.

normally, when we talk about inflation. real value is the yardstick. ie. something more akin to the big Mac index.

Re: Gold prices are hitting records

#39
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looks like Great Depression, 1979/1980, and right after the Great Recession. What is the significance of 79/80?

It was the most severe recession since the Great depression lol good times /s https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_1980s_recession Good time to buy defense contractor stock because one way to get out of serious depressions/recession is a war. And the presidential election is next year...

I wonder how the US army feels about a South American venture this time? Given the things happening in Guyana.

Re: Gold prices are hitting records

#40
post #5

Does this as an index track global anxiety?

I wonder if there is concern about the incoming boomer peak selloff, i.e. the larger than proportional age group coming into retirement and about to (presumably) sell off a bunch of indexes/stocks in their 401ks. Not sure what else could be a good hedge.
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