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Forecasts need to have error bars

andrewpwheeler.com

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Re: Forecasts need to have error bars

#11

Post by nonethewiser »

Maxion wrote: post #10
amichal wrote: post #5

I have, in my life as a web developer, had multiple "academics" urgently demand that i remove error bands, bars, notes about outliers, confidence intervals etc from graphics at the last minute so people are not "confused" Its depressing

The depressing part is that many people actually need them removed in order to not be confused.

But aren’t they still confused without the error bars? Or confidently incorrect? And who could blame them, when that’s the information they’re given?

It seems like the options are:

- no error bars which mislead everyone

- error bars which confuse some people and accurately inform others

Re: Forecasts need to have error bars

#12

Post by [deleted] »

bo1024 wrote: post #8

Two things I think are interesting here, one discussed by the author and one not. (1) As mentioned at the bottom, forecasting usually should lead to decisionmaking, and when it gets disconnected, it can be unclear what the value is. It sounds like Rosenfield is trying to use forecasting to give added weight to his statistical conclusions about past data, which I agree sounds suspect. (2) it's not clear what the "erro…

[deleted]

Re: Forecasts need to have error bars

#13

Post by doubled112 »

NegativeLatency wrote: post #9
nullindividual wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same, but in a human context, are mundane atmospheric events so far off today that error bars would have any practical value and/or potentially introduce confusion?

For this reason I really enjoy reading the text products and area forecast discussion for interesting weather: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=p...

Anybody happen to know if there's anything more detailed from Environment Canada than their forecast pages?

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-143_metric_e.html

I really like that discussion type forecast.

Re: Forecasts need to have error bars

#14

Post by m-murphy »

bo1024 wrote: post #8

Two things I think are interesting here, one discussed by the author and one not. (1) As mentioned at the bottom, forecasting usually should lead to decisionmaking, and when it gets disconnected, it can be unclear what the value is. It sounds like Rosenfield is trying to use forecasting to give added weight to his statistical conclusions about past data, which I agree sounds suspect. (2) it's not clear what the "erro…

That's not what a confidence interval is. A confidence interval is a random variable that covers the true value 95% of the time (assuming the model is correctly specified).

Re: Forecasts need to have error bars

#15

Post by bo1024 »

m-murphy wrote: post #14
bo1024 wrote: post #8

Two things I think are interesting here, one discussed by the author and one not. (1) As mentioned at the bottom, forecasting usually should lead to decisionmaking, and when it gets disconnected, it can be unclear what the value is. It sounds like Rosenfield is trying to use forecasting to give added weight to his statistical conclusions about past data, which I agree sounds suspect. (2) it's not clear what the "erro…

That's not what a confidence interval is. A confidence interval is a random variable that covers the true value 95% of the time (assuming the model is correctly specified).

Ok, the 'reverse' of a confidence interval then -- I haven't seen a term for the object I described other than misuse of CI in the way I did. ("Double quantile"?)

Re: Forecasts need to have error bars

#16

Post by m-murphy »

bo1024 wrote: post #15
m-murphy wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not what a confidence interval is. A confidence interval is a random variable that covers the true value 95% of the time (assuming the model is correctly specified).

Ok, the 'reverse' of a confidence interval then -- I haven't seen a term for the object I described other than misuse of CI in the way I did. ("Double quantile"?)

You're probably thinking of a predictive interval

Re: Forecasts need to have error bars

#17

Post by echelon »

amichal wrote: post #5

I have, in my life as a web developer, had multiple "academics" urgently demand that i remove error bands, bars, notes about outliers, confidence intervals etc from graphics at the last minute so people are not "confused" Its depressing

Some people won't understand error bars. Given that we evolved from apes and that there's a distribution of intelligences, skill sets, and interests across all walks of society, I don't place blame on anyone. We're just messy as a species. It'll be okay. Everything is mostly working out.

Re: Forecasts need to have error bars

#19

Post by ethbr1 »

echelon wrote: post #17
amichal wrote: post #5

I have, in my life as a web developer, had multiple "academics" urgently demand that i remove error bands, bars, notes about outliers, confidence intervals etc from graphics at the last minute so people are not "confused" Its depressing

Some people won't understand error bars. Given that we evolved from apes and that there's a distribution of intelligences, skill sets, and interests across all walks of society, I don't place blame on anyone. We're just messy as a species. It'll be okay. Everything is mostly working out.

> We're just messy as a species. It'll be okay. Everything is mostly working out.

{Confidence interval we won't cook the planet}

Re: Forecasts need to have error bars

#20

Post by esafak »

amichal wrote: post #5

I have, in my life as a web developer, had multiple "academics" urgently demand that i remove error bands, bars, notes about outliers, confidence intervals etc from graphics at the last minute so people are not "confused" Its depressing

Statistically illiterate people should not be making decisions. I'd take that as a signal to leave.
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