Earlier quoted context omitted.
> But I would argue the world is not zero-sum. Modern life for middle class or poor class people is a lot better than the vast majority of history Zero sum is not a binary. For things where we are able to increase output using technological progress to the point where supply sufficiently meets demand, sure, it doesn't feel zero sum. Nobody is arguing that we need to fix that -- the challenge is actually preserving th…
> Housing and land in particular are really tough. Housing and land are not "tough". There's plenty of dirt cheap land even in highly developed countries; it just happens to be outside the most popular locations. But if we want housing to become both cheap and livable we must invest in those "unpopular" places, even as we also try to build more housing in the more high-demand locations. There's just no avoiding that.
Billionaires amass more through inheritance than wealth creation, says UBS
231–240 of 356 posts
Re: Billionaires amass more through inheritance than wealth creation, says UBS
#232This is the conclusion of Thomas Picketty's 2013 book, "Capital in the 21st Century." Due to the historical averages of the rate of return on capital, he concluded empirically that wealth will continue to concentrate to the point to inheritors, to the extent that individuals become increasingly unable through labor to achieve parity to the inheritors. The book was very provocative in economist circles, but even the c…
It's weird because prior to the 21st Century this used to be almost entirely how wealth was generated.
But I think the argument of inheritance being a major wealth driver should be simple to understand from a few base principles. This is invariant of money and is related to capital in the broader sense (i.e. resources) which is also going to be invariant to many economic systems. One of the most important ones is momentum.
Momentum seems to often not be considered in these discussions but makes discussions of trickle down economics rather insane. Let's look at a more realistic discussions. Your stock portfolio should not be bounds, full of bonds, and nothing but bonds. You have to diversify and actually even include some risky investments. We usually talk about this in percentages of investments but this doesn't actually make any sense because it's actually percentage of risk vulnerability. E.g. Elon can lose 244B of his 245B and still gave essentially the same quality of life (similarly doubling his wealth won't change anything in a meaningful way). But let's also look deeper at percentages. Let's say I make an investment of $10k (a nice size for someone early on in their career) and I'm about to do really well and get 500% return on that (killer value!), I now have $60k to play with. Now let's say another person puts a $10M investment and only gets a measly 1% return. They gained $100k so have $10.1M to play with.[0] The other problem with percentages is that you can "increase your luck" by taking on far more risk. If we both take our 10{k,M} and diversity into 1k pots and each pot has a x% chance of returning 500%, which person do you think ends up with more winners? Or if we do a fixed number of pots but divide by percent of money, you're going to find a very different expected return value.
Consider this factor when you're also considering cost of living arguments. I'll take that SV software job at $300k/yr where I can only invest 10% of my income (30k) per year over a $100k/yr job in middle America where I can invest 20% of my income (20k). COL calculators are always based on percentages and so not taking this into account (as well as a lot more abstract things) and it doesn't matter of in SV I'm spending 70% of my income on housing but 30% elsewhere if this is the end result (only focusing on building wealth for a clearer argument. Other factors matter and wealth isn't everything. But employers, you can't just use COL adjustments, it's a bad deal for the employees and they know it)
Now I said it is invariant of money, because capital is capital. Land, factories, gold, potatoes, whatever, that's all capital. It can't ever be evenly distributed, even with all good faith actors, because the value of those changes wildly and fast (value != money, its more abstract). Throw in how non-homogeneous everything is (e.g. land, housing, location are not fungible resources) and you got a crazy fucking mess. It's no wonder you can't make a successful 5 year plan, the world is chaos and the models need to be exceptionally complex. You have to embrace the chaos in some way.
TLDR: math isn't always intuitive because neither percentages nor raw values exclusively tell the whole story (don't get me started on mean, median, and variance). People love to (often unintentionally) lie by using whichever fits a better narrative. A holistic approach is needed (i.e. context) with clear definitions of objective functions and more importantly clear understandings of the metrics (a whole other can of worms that people think is far simpler than they actually are).
[0] To put it another way, if you're retiring with $10M in investments you're retiring with a passive income north of an L3 at Google. This is why John Bogle is happy with only $50m (which grew) because he understood that there's very little more money can do for him and that a simple 2% a year on that gets him a million every year and so the value is not a high score but being human. This isn't really a philosophical argument because literally capital generally follows an S curve in its utility, not linear and usually not exponential (though S looks exponential at some points).
Re: Billionaires amass more through inheritance than wealth creation, says UBS
#233And yet 70% of generational wealth is gone by the 2nd generation.
The thing about accumulated wealth is that the moment you spend it down, that chunk of it is gone forever and not coming back - it's very different from having a high income , which can support continued levels of spending over time. So it takes very cautious, culturally-ingrained attitudes to pass down such wealth for many generations. It becomes more of a cultural symbol or totem than anything really tangible at th…
Re: Billionaires amass more through inheritance than wealth creation, says UBS
#234Yet on the billionaire leaderboard the top-10 are: Musk, Arnault, Bezos, Ellison, Buffet, Gates, Zuckerberg, Balmer, Page, Bin. Not one of them through inheritance. Sure, you have the waltons a little lower on the list. As a person who started in the bottom decile of wealth I want to hate inheritance at least as much as the next person. But at first glance it sure doesn't look good for these "researchers".
Musk: Rich father, emerald mine money? Arnault: "In 1971, he graduated from the École Polytechnique, France's leading engineering school, and began work for his father's company. Three years later, after he convinced his father to shift the focus of the company to real estate" Gates: "His father was a prominent lawyer" "At age 13, he enrolled in the private Lakeside prep school, where he wrote his first software prog…
Gates grandfather was president of a bank. Gates left his prep school for Harvard with a million dollar trust fund. His mother was on a board with the chairman of IBM which helped launch Microsoft into the big time.
Buffett's father was a congressman. His grandparents owned a chain of grocery stores.
Zuckerberg's high school was Phillips Exeter Academy. Currently tuition is over $50,000 a year - for high school.
Re: Billionaires amass more through inheritance than wealth creation, says UBS
#235Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think that muddies the water as much as saying that someone who supports UBI also must support foodstamps and housing vouchers. The point is pursuing greater _equality_. We are all heirs to a society that has produced enormous value; why should a small minority of kids get a huge extra unearned boost? Purpose-constrained assistance is not _equal_ to inheritance, in that heirs to private wealth aren't generally subj…
> why should a small minority of kids get a huge extra unearned boost? That unearned boost is already available to anyone who manages to bequeath sufficient amounts of wealth to the next generation, and conversely becomes unavailable to those who squander that wealth instead. That doesn't really change all that much if you introduce redistribution: either way, there will always be plenty of kids who will spend the mo…
> but being bequeathed a sizeable inheritance in the first place at least implies that one's attitude to managing wealth has already stood the test of time
I think twice in two paragraphs you managed to conflate the person leaving the inheritance and the person receiving it. The "unearned" part of the unearned boost is clearly only available to person receiving an inheritance, rather than the person who bequeaths anything to the next generation. A person being bequeathed an inheritance does not imply anything about that person's attitude or aptitude.
Re: Billionaires amass more through inheritance than wealth creation, says UBS
#236Earlier quoted context omitted.
Good luck with that in USA. I'd rather die some billionaires minimum wage security squad protecting his gold plated yacht than let some violent freeloaders take my shit and install some cuban-tier communist hell-hole where there's no incentive to produce even basic grain stocks.
If you are minimum wage security guard, nobody is taking your shit.
Re: Billionaires amass more through inheritance than wealth creation, says UBS
#237If this surprises anyone, I have a waterfront property to sell them in Reno
Re: Billionaires amass more through inheritance than wealth creation, says UBS
#238Earlier quoted context omitted.
It turns out the thing that Picketty missed was that he grouped land with Capital. Land should be treated differently as it can not be created or destroyed. If you seperate out the data into land and capital (w/o the land) then all of the outsized returns come from rich people hoarding land[1]. This is in line with the observations of Riccardo[2]. [1]: https://www.salon.com/2015/01/02/joseph_stiglitz_thomas_pike... […
Sorry if this is nitpicking, but valuable land absolutely can be created (Boston) and destroyed (climate change) on human timescales. I'm sure the amount of land that can realistically be created and destroyed within a few lifetimes is negligible compared to the amount of land in existence, but compared to valuable inhabited land it might actually be significant. Coastal land tends to be pretty valuable, and that's w…
Picketty doesn't miss.
Re: Billionaires amass more through inheritance than wealth creation, says UBS
#239Earlier quoted context omitted.
It turns out the thing that Picketty missed was that he grouped land with Capital. Land should be treated differently as it can not be created or destroyed. If you seperate out the data into land and capital (w/o the land) then all of the outsized returns come from rich people hoarding land[1]. This is in line with the observations of Riccardo[2]. [1]: https://www.salon.com/2015/01/02/joseph_stiglitz_thomas_pike... […
Sorry if this is nitpicking, but valuable land absolutely can be created (Boston) and destroyed (climate change) on human timescales. I'm sure the amount of land that can realistically be created and destroyed within a few lifetimes is negligible compared to the amount of land in existence, but compared to valuable inhabited land it might actually be significant. Coastal land tends to be pretty valuable, and that's w…
Re: Billionaires amass more through inheritance than wealth creation, says UBS
#240Earlier quoted context omitted.
I also think it's worth calling out that his follow-up, "Capital and Ideology" in its latter sections includes several suggestions for counteracting the trend to increasing inequality. One of these is basically that _every_ person should have a windfall inheritance when they're in their early adulthood, which would give them opportunities to pursue education, try starting a business, or whatever else. And naturally,…
People whine about "wealth distribution" day and night, but at the end of the day what alternative is there to combat the (continually increasing) concentration of wealth at the top? At some point there will have to be redistribution, in some form, and the sooner society comes around to that the better off we'll all be.