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Kickstarter Is Totally Disrupting Consumer Electronics, Probably By Mistake

amandapeyton.com

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Re: Kickstarter Is Totally Disrupting Consumer Electronics, Probably By Mistake

#41

Post by ansible »

mechanical_fish wrote: post #11
ansible wrote: post #5

I diagree with the thesis. An art project like the one mentioned is relatively small. CE projects, which want to ship millions of units is an entirely different affair, usually costing millions of dollars and large teams composed of many different specialities. Even if you did raise $5 million USD you still need a design team and manufacturing. And there's no guarantee of success either. I just don't see Kickstarter…

Perhaps we merely need to modify the thesis: Kickstarter is the user interface by which independent designers connect a thoroughly mature, ever-improving ecosystem of OEMs and prototyping shops to consumers, thereby potentially disrupting consumer electronics. The real force here is small-batch manufacturing, which has been a long time in coming. Laser cutters, water-jet cutters, 3D printers, and - perhaps more impor…

Don't think for a minute I'm satisfied with the status quo. I'd love it if all these rapid prototyping tools got cheap enough for mass production. But that's not how it is now or for the near term.

Actually, there is one area where rapid proto has helped, and that is with PCB manufacturing. It is relatively easy to get boards done quickly. The board outlines are done with CNC, and the holes are often laser drilled.

But your job is definitely not over when you email the design file, in many ways it is just beginning.

Re: Kickstarter Is Totally Disrupting Consumer Electronics, Probably By Mistake

#42

Post by ansible »

angusgr wrote: post #7
ansible wrote: post #5

I diagree with the thesis. An art project like the one mentioned is relatively small. CE projects, which want to ship millions of units is an entirely different affair, usually costing millions of dollars and large teams composed of many different specialities. Even if you did raise $5 million USD you still need a design team and manufacturing. And there's no guarantee of success either. I just don't see Kickstarter…

How does the Pebble Watch fit into your understanding of the difference? They have a small team, single designer. Although they built a consumer electronics product before they seem to run on fairly limited funding. Although I don't know of any Kickstarted consumer electronics designs that have already shipped successfully, so maybe the specific viability is not yet proven.

The Pebble watch is cute, and small enough scale that they might actually ship product. The question is, at what price?

Remember, we're talking CE, so every penny counts. Unless they've assembled a very good team, that thing will retail for over $100.

If the product seems like it might be successful, somebody like Samsung will jump in right away with a competing product for $50 USD. And 6 months after that the Chinese clones will be coming in at $30. Good luck trying to turn enough profit to fund development of the cost-down version.

The big boys like Samsung and Foxconn are so vertically integrated. It is tough to compete with them when they can buy the chips at a much lower price than you can.

Re: Kickstarter Is Totally Disrupting Consumer Electronics, Probably By Mistake

#43

Post by armandososa »

steve8918 wrote: post #30

Is there a place that lists the projects that ended up being a failure? I'm curious what the failure rate of Kickstarter is, and if fraud artists are attempting to rip people off via it. Also, if the failure rate starts increasing, would that jeopardize the entire business model, if people lose confidence that the projects will see the light of day?

Maybe the Diaspora project qualifies as a failure or, at least, as a disappointment.

Re: Kickstarter Is Totally Disrupting Consumer Electronics, Probably By Mistake

#44

Post by ansible »

th0ma5 wrote: post #14
ansible wrote: post #5

I diagree with the thesis. An art project like the one mentioned is relatively small. CE projects, which want to ship millions of units is an entirely different affair, usually costing millions of dollars and large teams composed of many different specialities. Even if you did raise $5 million USD you still need a design team and manufacturing. And there's no guarantee of success either. I just don't see Kickstarter…

I think we see a little of what your talking about with Shapeoko ... awesome idea, execution, community... but the guy hit a scaling hurdle and put maybe a tad too much on himself, but now it is being handled by others, so the whole thing worked out. Other projects will have other experiences, and his situation is unique in most other ways, but it does coincide a little bit with what you're saying.

Another one is Open Pandora, the game console. It didn't use Kickstarter (it started before that was popular), and it took a while to get going. Go read their blog about the ir production difficulties. The last I checked, they had shipped only about 4K units. They started with a high-end mobile processor, but that was years ago, and the latest gen phones and tablets have eclipsed them. They've had quality issues too, because they didn't have good production line testing.

Re: Kickstarter Is Totally Disrupting Consumer Electronics, Probably By Mistake

#45

Post by TeMPOraL »

ansible wrote: post #42
angusgr wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does the Pebble Watch fit into your understanding of the difference? They have a small team, single designer. Although they built a consumer electronics product before they seem to run on fairly limited funding. Although I don't know of any Kickstarted consumer electronics designs that have already shipped successfully, so maybe the specific viability is not yet proven.

The Pebble watch is cute, and small enough scale that they might actually ship product. The question is, at what price? Remember, we're talking CE, so every penny counts. Unless they've assembled a very good team, that thing will retail for over $100. If the product seems like it might be successful, somebody like Samsung will jump in right away with a competing product for $50 USD. And 6 months after that the Chines…

Well, but they will get some amount of money from the initial batches and then they might grow, get bought by someone, or who-knows-what.

But the point (for me) is that they're developing a piece of consumer electronics that is actually useful. Right now there's (AFAIK) nothing there comparable to Pebble (wearable, nice-looking, programmable e-paper interface to smartphones). It's a hacker gadget, something that is heavily useful and can be made even more by anyone with a bit of free time on their hands. It's a very rare situation in consumer electronics market (Android is kind of new here, and vendors are going out of their way to break it anyway).

So yes, let's have Samsung jump in with a competing product for $50. And then maybe Nokia, or someone else. I would be happy to see that, because an useful tool would appear on market, and it doesn't really matter who provides it, as long as it's not crap.

Re: Kickstarter Is Totally Disrupting Consumer Electronics, Probably By Mistake

#46

Post by TeMPOraL »

Funny; I only discovered that there are non-tech projects there quite recently. I found out about Kickstarter via HN, so most of the projects I saw were hardware and software ones, and guess what... I think it's what was needed.

There's lot of creativity to be unleashed in building new technology, tools and practical gadgets (as opposed to what typical commercial gadget is). And Kickstarter tech projects are definitely awesome-first, money-next type of projects - maybe because people involved are often building them for themselves? I hope to see more such projects, I will be happy to back them.

Re: Kickstarter Is Totally Disrupting Consumer Electronics, Probably By Mistake

#47

Post by hef19898 »

Kickstarter ay have started as a growd funding plattform for art projects. But by doing that, they lay ground to a new way of funding, well, virtually everything. And since funding can be a major pain in the ass, Kickstarter has a opened up opportunities nobody would have ever dreamed of.

When they now get a banking license or an other type of SEC "enter random monetary regulating body" blessing, the finacial industry should worry! ;-O)

Re: Kickstarter Is Totally Disrupting Consumer Electronics, Probably By Mistake

#48

Post by InclinedPlane »

lifeformed wrote: post #36
steve8918 wrote: post #30

Is there a place that lists the projects that ended up being a failure? I'm curious what the failure rate of Kickstarter is, and if fraud artists are attempting to rip people off via it. Also, if the failure rate starts increasing, would that jeopardize the entire business model, if people lose confidence that the projects will see the light of day?

I think we're just one big Kickstarter failure away from everybody rethinking things.

You could make the same exact argument on the same exact basis about the stock market. Yet it looks like kickstarter is far, far and away superior to that model in terms of translating initial funding to successful projects.

Re: Kickstarter Is Totally Disrupting Consumer Electronics, Probably By Mistake

#49

Post by jimster01 »

I would disagree with the post. Kickstarter doesnt change the field of consumer electronics at all. The products created would usually not have been made but for the pre-sale funding available.

I would also disagree that these items can even be considered consumer electronics, they are widgets at best and really destined for a large consumer market.

Kickstarter is a great platform but like the instagram sale recieves too much hype whenever something big goes up.

Re: Kickstarter Is Totally Disrupting Consumer Electronics, Probably By Mistake

#50

Post by rplnt »

jerf wrote: post #13
benologist wrote: post #10

Where disrupting means tiny, tiny, tiny niche with a disproportionate amount of hype. Games are another example eridius pointed out, showing 6 successful projects out of the 10000s of games that will be produced outside of Kickstarter this year! What's happening is in some cases awesome but it's not disruption.

The timeline is never: Day 1: Disruptive company is formed. Day 2: Disrupted industry in flames, disruptive company wins! It's a cowpath today, but I think there's every reason to believe this one can and will be paved.

This Red Hat video (Truth Happens) is very appropriate: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXDsRoc6MGo
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