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Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

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Re: Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

#91

Post by philwelch »

learc83 wrote: post #54
aboodman wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't entirely the having to manually drive that people don't like about driving. It's also the time and cost to run, park, insure, maintain, etc. Driverless cars won't help most of this. No matter who is doing the driving, walking a few blocks is more convenient than driving a mile. And anyway, walking is more fun. I grew up in suburbs, and the article described my experience perfectly. I may someday move away fr…

>It's also the time and cost to run, park, insure, maintain, etc. Driverless cars won't help most of this. Driverless cars will help almost all of those. Think how much more viable zip cars would become if you didn't have to get to the car in the first place. If you could just call a car with a smartphone app and it would show up. Parking is a non issue because it drops you off at the door, and it can go park whereve…

> there are plenty of places where I definitely do not want to walk a few blocks during most of the year

The climate issue can easily be addressed with a good coat and maybe a decent pair of snow boots. I really can't express how lazy and decadent this argument sounds to me--if it's not a clear, sunny day, you have to ferry yourself around in a thousand pounds of steel?

Just so you know I'm not talking shit, whenever I could, I'd walk 10, 20, 30 minutes across campus and across town in anywhere from 0 to 100 degree weather, in snow, rain, hail, anything you could name. I had insulated canvas grocery bags so my ice cream wouldn't melt in the summer and my milk wouldn't spoil in the summer. And I'm a pretty lazy and spoiled person when it comes to physical comfort.

Re: Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

#93

Post by learc83 »

aboodman wrote: post #67
learc83 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It's also the time and cost to run, park, insure, maintain, etc. Driverless cars won't help most of this. Driverless cars will help almost all of those. Think how much more viable zip cars would become if you didn't have to get to the car in the first place. If you could just call a car with a smartphone app and it would show up. Parking is a non issue because it drops you off at the door, and it can go park whereve…

Someone needs to pay for the fuel. Someone needs to pay for the insurance. Someone needs to pay for parking, the technical development, the maintenance, and the infrastructure. Guess who that someone is? You. In the fees you pay for this service (or in taxes that subsidize it). No matter how much tech you throw at it, walking down to the corner market for vegetables is more efficient (in a purely value/cost sense) th…

>Someone needs to pay for the fuel. Someone needs to pay for the insurance. Someone needs to pay for parking, the technical development, the maintenance, and the infrastructure.

Of course they do. But the average car is only driven a few hours a day. If you take the total fixed costs of a car and divide it amongst dozens of people, it's much cheaper than ownership.

I also expect insurance prices to drop dramatically for self driving cars, given that over 90% of accidents are caused by human error.

Additionally I don't think parking will be a problem with all of the now empty driveways of former car owners. Just give a discount for zip car service to customers in exchange for using their driveways to park downtime cars.

>But it was better than trying to hail a cab and wasting 10 bucks. And in the end, it felt good. Walking a little every day is good for you.

>Many people want to be able to walk or ride a bicycle as part of their daily routine. Many people want to be in close physical proximity to other people.

All of those are true and I think given demographic shifts--people marrying and having kids later, resulting in more single or childless 20-30 year olds--we will definitely see growth in urban centers.

However, I think it's almost purely a result of demographic shifts not some new desire to live in cities. Young childless people have always wanted to live in the city, we just have more of them than we used to.

Re: Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

#94

Post by sbierwagen »

nitrogen wrote: post #64
TheFuture wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EXACTLY. This notion that gen y is some sort of elightend urban dweller is ridiculous. Gen y is the most immature gen ever in American history. They treat college like a party, an excuse to extend childish behavior, and just throw the bill on some low interest student loans. No wonder they all rent, their credit is terrible. And then they don't get that 80k job handed to them, so they still work at Starbucks at 26yrs…

They treat college like a party, an excuse to extend childish behavior Are you sure this is a recent phenomenon? Just two examples I'm aware of: 1978: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0077975/ 1985: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0089886/

Pointless addendum: Animal House was made in 1978, but set in 1961.

Rolling Stone recently ran an article on the fratboy culture at Dartmouth: (the university "Faber College" was based on) http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/news/confessions-of-an-i...

Re: Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

#95

Post by philwelch »

TheFuture wrote: post #17
toyg wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The self-driving car will still need energy to run. Suburbs are built on the principle that energy is cheap. That is no longer the case.

The self driving car will be much more energy efficient, especially if they can communicate with each other to optimize traffic flow

You're using 2500 pounds of steel to carry a 200 pound human. Even if you assume 100% efficiency and power it with pixie dust that's too energy intensive. You're also using a 6 foot by 12 foot cage to convey that human being, which isn't scalable regardless of how much you optimize traffic flow.

And that's if you're driving a Mini Cooper.

Re: Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

#96

Post by learc83 »

philwelch wrote: post #91
learc83 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It's also the time and cost to run, park, insure, maintain, etc. Driverless cars won't help most of this. Driverless cars will help almost all of those. Think how much more viable zip cars would become if you didn't have to get to the car in the first place. If you could just call a car with a smartphone app and it would show up. Parking is a non issue because it drops you off at the door, and it can go park whereve…

> there are plenty of places where I definitely do not want to walk a few blocks during most of the year The climate issue can easily be addressed with a good coat and maybe a decent pair of snow boots. I really can't express how lazy and decadent this argument sounds to me--if it's not a clear, sunny day, you have to ferry yourself around in a thousand pounds of steel? Just so you know I'm not talking shit, whenever…

It's not a question of whether we're capable of doing it. It's whether given alternative will we choose to do it.

You'd save money and it would be better for the environment if you took cold showers, but are you going to? Are many other people going to? Or are you going to buy a hot water heater and continue paying maintenance and energy costs for it. (I experimented with taking only cold showers--in the winter--for a few months btw)

Re: Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

#97

Post by philwelch »

learc83 wrote: post #96
philwelch wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there are plenty of places where I definitely do not want to walk a few blocks during most of the year The climate issue can easily be addressed with a good coat and maybe a decent pair of snow boots. I really can't express how lazy and decadent this argument sounds to me--if it's not a clear, sunny day, you have to ferry yourself around in a thousand pounds of steel? Just so you know I'm not talking shit, whenever…

It's not a question of whether we're capable of doing it. It's whether given alternative will we choose to do it. You'd save money and it would be better for the environment if you took cold showers, but are you going to? Are many other people going to? Or are you going to buy a hot water heater and continue paying maintenance and energy costs for it. (I experimented with taking only cold showers--in the winter--for…

If automobile travel and suburban sprawl were no longer subsidized and the externalities were priced into the decision--yes, people would put on a damn coat and walk a few blocks. People do that all the time. It's not even that uncomfortable; nothing at all like a cold shower. Cold showers were exactly what I was thinking about when I said I was a lazy and spoiled person when it comes to physical comfort.

And if you compare the climate of Los Angeles to New York, Boston, Portland, or Vancouver--empirically, it turns out climate isn't a determining factor.

Re: Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

#98

Post by [deleted] »

waterlesscloud wrote: post #85
noonespecial wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taxis are expensive and severely supply side limited. Interesting things happen when things that were previously limited become much less so. People had "internet" when they dialed it at 56kbits, but things like youtube were impossible. I'd guess that self driving zip-cars would be at least as big a paradigm shift.

What about driverless cars will make them inherently cheaper than taxis?

[deleted]

Re: Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

#99

Post by philwelch »

aaronbrethorst wrote: post #51
nostromo wrote: post #20

I'm noticing this play out on the ground in Seattle. There's a big box Target opening up right downtown. It used to be that if you wanted anything from Target, WalMart, BestBuy, etc., you had to go on an adventure to the suburbs. I've noticed other retailers are making moves to smaller stores located in city centers (like BestBuy recently announced http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2012/04/best-buy-releas... ). Al…

Northgate isn't out in the suburbs, it's quite well inside of Seattle's city limits. And Amazon is actually doubling down on their presence in South Lake Union. > I know a number of young people who would stay away from Microsoft because of the dreaded commute to Redmond. I did it for four years and will never do it again, Connector or not.

Northgate might not be "in the suburbs", but it's more suburban in character than many neighborhoods.

Re: Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

#100

Post by philwelch »

rollypolly wrote: post #8
saryant wrote: post #4

I absolutely fall into this category. Grew up in suburbs of LA, San Francisco, Houston and the outskirts of Cheyenne, WY. Now I'm about to move into the Montrose area of Houston. I hate driving and now I'll be taking metro rail to downtown and I'll be close to great restaurants, grocery stores and cafes. Even if I do need to drive, I'll be smack in the middle of what I consider the "good" parts of Houston so I won't…

I dream of a post-car America. But wouldn't that require places like Houston to build massive amounts of public transport?

It would require a lot of capital investment, but building and maintaining highways and automobiles already requires a lot of capital investment. It's just a reallocation.
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