Assuming one succeeded, would it be more financially lucrative to claim the prize or form a startup with it?
$10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize
181–190 of 231 posts
Re: $10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize
#182Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well math solving is exactly what the rumored Q* is aiming towards too. I don't think it'll take more than 2 years before some LLM + RL system can take the gold medal. I think companies like OpenAI are aiming for something far more ambitious, like solving a millennium prize problem (even with human assistance). That's the kind of news release that'll add another $100 billion to your market cap.
Their current ambition is to be able to solve school math, which is quite far away from solving unsolved conjectures or math olympiads. I really doubt that any of this is within LLM/transformer scope, except maybe in some auxiliary sense to other, much different architectures.
Exponential progress. Hard to wrap your mind around.
An analogy: If it takes 20 years to create AGI equivalent to the village idiot. It take another couple of hours to go from that to Einstein.
Re: $10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize
#183Earlier quoted context omitted.
Just to nitpick, while unlikely, it is theoretically possible that the second player has a winning strategy
To nitpick a little further, it actually is not possible that the second player has a winning strategy. For that to be the case, P2 would need a winning path of play no matter what P1's first move is. Suppose that P1 passes on their first move (which is a valid move). Then P2 has a winning path of play in which they put down the first stone. But P1 could have made that move and then they would be on the winning path.
I'm not a game theorist, in RL, nor a big Go player; but I am having a hard time finding this argument convincing. Isn't the whole reason Go is impressive is because the enormous set of possible moves? Like we know that no computer could run ever game in the lifetime of the universe were it to even perform millions of moves a second. So of the I understand this number to be north of 10^500 for possible legal and playable games. So the difference of 1 doesn't seem meaningful. Is there something I'm missing or a more convincing argument? Because even if player 1 always locks out 90% of those possible future moves, that's still an absurdly large search space and it doesn't seem like it is meaningfully different.
Re: $10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize
#184Great marketing stunt, nice work by XTX HR!
Re: $10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize
#185Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well this thing about fingers, etc in drawings. Lets put it this way - for us mere mortals the generative images look very much okay. To artists and people who actually draw something, well ... they very often spot inconsistencies in the whole production, including how fingers, arms, overall body posture, etc is presented. So it is exactly what we can expect - good enough on average, but actually a mediocre result of…
It's a weighted average over the prompts and data. Mediocrity is exactly what we'd expect from such an approach. Now, if we end up seeing mastery, that would be extremely interesting.
> Mediocrity is exactly what we'd expect from such an approach.
No no, you see I prompted the AI with "masterpiece, photorealistic, 35 mm photography, cinematic, dslr, volumetric lighting, trending on artstation, 4k, 8k, hyper-detailed, epic digital painting by Greg Rutkowski" /s
Re: $10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize
#186Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't know what "fair" has to do with that. These are two examples that caught my attention, and I might be wrong that this constitutes a trend. If you have data that says otherwise, please share.
I think the funding in pure math is not going down in recent years. Nor are math departments much smaller than they were say ten years ago. Otherwise I'm sure how best to give evidence of math departments not shutting down! Do I list healthy math departments?
I guess this would be a case of applied math ;-)
Joking aside, of course it is not on you to provide evidence. I would probably start with seeing how many universities have pure math departments over a time axis from now back to 2000 or so.
It might even be that the total funding increases, but is more centralised in the big universities. So a total funding timeline would also be good.
Re: $10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize
#187Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wish there was a serious study of Dunning-Kruger effect in Silicon Valley.
While I get your point and agree, there apparently is no Dunning-Kruger effect. It was determined to be yet another case of faulty data analysis in behavioral psych.[1] 1. https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2022/04/08/the-dunning-k...
I don't think that's a mainstream take. But I can settle with:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect
Or even
Re: $10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize
#188Re: $10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize
#189Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's highly unclear to me what will happen. Probably learning math will be more accessible. But it's unclear how many humans will be involved at the forefront of math research. For example you can imagine a situation where in some parts of math large communities work in a direction guided by a few "visionaries". This sort of thing will not really happen after the commodization of theorem provers. Like instead of an a…
>Probably learning math will be more accessible. I'm not quite sure what you mean. Isn't math already pretty much the most accessible thing that could be imagined? I can't think of any story of someone in the past century who wanted to study math but was unable to, except for reasons prohibiting any sort of academic study whatsoever (e.g. girls in Taliban controlled areas).
Some people imagine AI will soon be a bit like being able to go to a university professor's office hours to ask questions and get detailed expert advice on any part of the undergraduate curriculum you're struggling with.
Except it'll be available 24/7 and you won't have to pass exams, spend $$$$, attend full time, and live in dorms and be in your late teens or early 20s to get access.
Re: $10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize
#190Earlier quoted context omitted.
My understanding was that their research on what drove engagement shifted quite a bit. Things like social proof, and product patterns like auto-loading the next episode to binge drove engagement metrics. Recently there were some articles about their team custom-identifying which cuts of a video to show as a trailer maximized engagement on a personal level. In some sense that is a recommendation, but it is a broader p…
Social proof on Netflix?
Yeah, the top10 in your region carousels get high engagement