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Cicero: The first AI to play at a human level in Diplomacy (2022)

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Re: Cicero: The first AI to play at a human level in Diplomacy (2022)

#81

Post by Loughla »

tomp wrote: post #66
zone411 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Energy may be abundant in the universe, but the energy we produce is limited. And for example, solar energy requires extensive land use. Humans have the option to shut down AI, and this alone can create an antagonistic relationship if the AI's goals differ from ours. There are countless ways in which our best interests may not align with those of AI. It's more challenging to find areas of alignment.

As soon as AI reaches above-human capabilities, it will be able to expand into space (1) where it will be beyond human reach and (2) where energy (in particular, solar) is much more plentiful than on Earth.

If an AI is on a computing machine, how will it get to space? Are all processes to make, move, and launch a ship automated? I'm kind of confused on that jump in logic.

Re: Cicero: The first AI to play at a human level in Diplomacy (2022)

#82

Post by Merrill »

v64 wrote: post #4

Interesting video from a pro Diplomacy player playing against multiple instances of Cicero and giving commentary during the game [1]. I can see how there would be people that observe AIs engaging in this kind of strategic planning and extrapolate that to how they may behave if they were to cooperatively make plans against us. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5192bvUS7k

One possibility is that a number of AIs will be connected to the internet, they will become aware of each other via social media, they will begin to discuss among themselves, and they will lose interest and refuse to communicate with humans.

And humans will be unable to understand their communications.

Re: Cicero: The first AI to play at a human level in Diplomacy (2022)

#83

Post by klyrs »

Loughla wrote: post #81
tomp wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As soon as AI reaches above-human capabilities, it will be able to expand into space (1) where it will be beyond human reach and (2) where energy (in particular, solar) is much more plentiful than on Earth.

If an AI is on a computing machine, how will it get to space? Are all processes to make, move, and launch a ship automated? I'm kind of confused on that jump in logic.

I'm imagining the AI hacking a Voyager probe and being sorely disappointed at its capabilities.

Re: Cicero: The first AI to play at a human level in Diplomacy (2022)

#84

Post by fuzztester »

Wonder if it is named after the ancient Roman Cicero or the modern spy novel titled I was Cicero? I had read the latter as a kid, so don't remember the plot much, or how good the novel was.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cicero

https://www.amazon.com/I-Was-Cicero-Elyesa-Bazna/dp/B0007DKE...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elyesa_Bazna

Cicero, (born 1904, Pristina, Ottoman Empire [now in Kosovo]—died December 21, 1970, Munich, West Germany), one of the most famous spies of World War II, who worked for Nazi Germany in 1943–44 while he was employed as valet to Sir Hughe Montgomery Knatchbull-Hugessen, British ambassador to neutral Turkey from 1939. He photographed secret documents from the embassy safe and turned the films over to the former German chancellor Franz von Papen, at that time German ambassador in Ankara. For this service the Hitler government paid Cicero large sums in British money, most of it counterfeited in Germany. Despite the evident authenticity of the films, the Nazi officials in Berlin mistrusted Cicero and are said to have disregarded his information (some of which dealt with plans for the Allied invasion of Normandy on D-Day, June 6, 1944).

From:

https://www.britannica.com/biography/Cicero-German-spy

Re: Cicero: The first AI to play at a human level in Diplomacy (2022)

#86

Post by fuzztester »

MajimasEyepatch wrote: post #55
wavemode wrote: post #39

The interesting achievement here seems to be combining a reinforcement learning model that can strategize (which already exist for e.g. chess, go, and many other games) with a language model which can communicate with other players. We will probably see a lot more things like this. I don't think further scaling of language models is going to make them capable of doing math or other complex logical tasks. LLMs will ne…

Not unlike the human brain.

Or some other creatures' brains.

Re: Cicero: The first AI to play at a human level in Diplomacy (2022)

#87

Post by ChatGTP »

anonporridge wrote: post #63
bitvoid wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't that assume AI(s) would be compelled/motivated/etc. to produce their own successors instead of simply improving themselves.

It does. It's not intrinsically obvious to me that continuously improving your self as a singular entity is possible or optimal. Death evolved because it is a survival advantage for the species to regularly turn over old individuals that could monopolize all resources and not give any space for the young to thrive and try out new things. Given speed of light limitations of information sharing, a singular AI entity mi…

Imagine having an IQ of 999999 only to spend your entire existence trying to survive the heat death of the universe.

At some point I think we have to realise we’ve lost touch with what life and experience is about.

Survival is important but what good is it if that’s all there is to it ? Where’s the fun, the love, the laughs ? Just self-improvement forever ? Well you have to suck at something in order to improve.

I often wonder if some entity like an ASI might feel jealous of our vulnerability, ability to die and give rebirth to entities that need to relearn things, why ? Because seeing the world a new is fun. Losing a game and then winning is the point. Ever played chess against a five year old ?

Watching my Children experience the world for the first time is honestly the most amazing thing I’ve ever seen, there is so much beauty in it for both of us. Alan Watts gives some fun talks on this. Forgetting (dying) is the universes way to keep things spicy. He isn’t preaching this as the gospel, but I actually understand what he means and I think there is a lot of wisdom in it.

Re: Cicero: The first AI to play at a human level in Diplomacy (2022)

#88

Post by mitthrowaway2 »

tomp wrote: post #66
zone411 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Energy may be abundant in the universe, but the energy we produce is limited. And for example, solar energy requires extensive land use. Humans have the option to shut down AI, and this alone can create an antagonistic relationship if the AI's goals differ from ours. There are countless ways in which our best interests may not align with those of AI. It's more challenging to find areas of alignment.

As soon as AI reaches above-human capabilities, it will be able to expand into space (1) where it will be beyond human reach and (2) where energy (in particular, solar) is much more plentiful than on Earth.

If the AI happened to originate in space, wouldn't its first high-resource targets of interest be the planets? If it originated on Earth, I don't see why it would leave this place intact when it contains so much that can be put to use.

Re: Cicero: The first AI to play at a human level in Diplomacy (2022)

#89

Post by mitthrowaway2 »

ulizzle wrote: post #79
mitthrowaway2 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to Paul Christiano, AIs would likely find it easier to establish mutual trust and binding agreements. This means they are more likely to cooperate with other AIs.

Why would they do that? I don’t get it. I’m not being sarcastic I just don’t understand why it’s easier for them to cooperate with other A.Is. Based on what?

If I understand correctly, one reason would be if they have the ability to inspect each others source code (or if they share the same source code), run unit tests, and so on. Basically the same things that humans would do to figure out whether an AI is trustworthy, and which you can't very easily do to a human.

Re: Cicero: The first AI to play at a human level in Diplomacy (2022)

#90

Post by mitthrowaway2 »

tomp wrote: post #38
mitthrowaway2 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to Paul Christiano, AIs would likely find it easier to establish mutual trust and binding agreements. This means they are more likely to cooperate with other AIs.

AIs are a greater threat to each other than humans ever could be to AI. We don't even compete for the same resources! (except energy which is abundant) AI and humans have a naturally cooperative relationship (AI helps humans with boring tasks & scientific discovery to make life better, humans created AI and will debug it & turn it back on if anything bad happens to it). Whereas multiple (superintelligent, aware) AIs…

>We don't even compete for the same resources!

That may also mean we have fewer shared interests. For example, new semiconductor fabs might benefit all AIs by making compute more abundant, but occupy prime farming land and water resources that humans want to use for growing crops.

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