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After OpenAI's blowup, it seems pretty clear that 'AI safety' isn't a real thing

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Re: After OpenAI's blowup, it seems pretty clear that 'AI safety' isn't a real thing

#321
post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good point, forgot about wrong visions of the future that excluded each other. People really get the future wrong in every way possible. Will be the same with AI.

Uh this is like saying "Y2K didn't happen so we wasted our time preventing it" Like dude, it didn't happen because a lot of people prevented it, the same with nuclear war. Because something could have tragic consequences is a reason to put great effort into ensuring it doesn't happen.

Not all hypotheticals justify great efforts in prevention.

Unlike AGI, nuclear weapons are not hypothetical in their existence.

On Y2K you can certainly ask if the efforts put into prevention were disproportionate to the risks.

Re: After OpenAI's blowup, it seems pretty clear that 'AI safety' isn't a real thing

#322
post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good point, forgot about wrong visions of the future that excluded each other. People really get the future wrong in every way possible. Will be the same with AI.

Nuclear war is still an overhanging threat that we should be concerned about, especially in the day and age of automation and AI.

Nuclear weapons and their dangers are real, unlike AGI which poses hypothetical risks .

Re: After OpenAI's blowup, it seems pretty clear that 'AI safety' isn't a real thing

#323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's one possibility: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kpPnReyBC54KESiSn/optimality...

That’s a lot of words to say something like “if an LLM asks you to execute some code it could be dangerous”. Seems somewhat obvious. Would you execute random code from a ‘friend’ who emailed you? Does the LLM have any nefarious intentions?

No, that isn't quite what it is saying. The LLM is simply running itself recursively on a task that you've assigned, which is the basic premise of agent models like Auto-GPT.

Turns out that's dangerous. But too bad, it's also very useful, so it's going to be done, safe or not.

Re: After OpenAI's blowup, it seems pretty clear that 'AI safety' isn't a real thing

#324
post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cripple enough infrastructure and humanity is going to be starving to death within weeks. Just the threat of a malicious AGI that people take seriously enough would cause ourselves to pull the plug on the Internet and all computers until they can be disinfected and new filters put in place. It doesn't matter if the AGI is capable of actually inflicting damage or not.

We couldn’t even do coordinated lockdowns for a few weeks to prevent millions of Covid deaths, and you think we’ll have a coordinated cessation of computer and internet use?

I live in Europe.

Germany, France and other large countries became virtual ghost towns overnight as it became illegal to leave your home for other than critical errands.

Wasn't it the same in big parts of the US? I remember seeing videos of a helicopter flying over LA without cars or people out on the streets.

But sure, the whole world wouldn't coordinate to shut down.

Re: After OpenAI's blowup, it seems pretty clear that 'AI safety' isn't a real thing

#325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would also be easy for a benevolent actor to counter-flood etc.

Sure; but multiple AI generated "mass movements" don't cancel each other out.

Who knows? We never had a world with a huge supply of mass movement attachment points.

Re: After OpenAI's blowup, it seems pretty clear that 'AI safety' isn't a real thing

#326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a lot of words to say something like “if an LLM asks you to execute some code it could be dangerous”. Seems somewhat obvious. Would you execute random code from a ‘friend’ who emailed you? Does the LLM have any nefarious intentions?

No, that isn't quite what it is saying. The LLM is simply running itself recursively on a task that you've assigned, which is the basic premise of agent models like Auto-GPT. Turns out that's dangerous. But too bad, it's also very useful, so it's going to be done, safe or not.

Running recursively on a task sounds a lot like executing code.

Let’s say we instead evaluate infiniteMonkeyBot. infiniteMonkeyBot simply issues random commands to a Unix prompt. Hypothetically this system is horrendously bad - it could potentially launch atomic weapons if we happen to connect those to the same system.

However, both infiniteMonkeyBot and our scary LLM are unlikely to be connected in this way and lack any desire or understanding necessary for nefarious behavior.

Re: After OpenAI's blowup, it seems pretty clear that 'AI safety' isn't a real thing

#327
post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The implicit argument is that one can't engineer something one doesn't understand. That's what machine learning is . We build these systems we don't fully understand, and set them on solving problems we don't understand. It's revolutionary because it lets us solve problems we don't understand. We don't really fully understand what they do or how, but it does still work.

We do fully understand how, and why, they work. That’s how we can build and optimize them. We can and do explicitly explain their inner workings in math.

dartos says >"We do fully understand how, and why, they work. That’s how we can build and optimize them. We can and do explicitly explain their inner workings in math."

I certainly don't! I don't know of anyone who understands how and why they work. Granted there are many who write code that "works" but where's the proof that the code actually "works properly"? And if you don't know where you are then it is difficult to determine a path to a better place.

I see few attempts to explicitly explain their inner workings in math. I do see lots of programs/code, however but that isn't math.

Similar dramatic moments have likely occurred before many times. The bare facts lie before us but we do not understand. I'm thinking of late 1800s-1900 just before Einstein published his works on special relativity. We knew Maxwell's equations and their relationship to the speed of light. We even had Lorentz's equations but we did not understand what they meant. Einstein interpreted the math and gave us special relativity.

Perhaps there is an Einstein (or two, or three, ...) working with LLMs now but they are quiet so far.

Re: After OpenAI's blowup, it seems pretty clear that 'AI safety' isn't a real thing

#328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Conversely, maybe AGI is not what is wanted in the end anyway. I dont think it is, if it is trully intelligent, it will probably have rights, so you cant treat it as a slave. And it will likely not be controllable. Both of these mean it will not be commercially progotable, any more than having children is profitable.

Those pigs we farm at scale in horrendous conditions are intelligent and have zero rights

Yes and factory farms face a well organized oppositional movement that for decades has consistently challenged their profitability on that basis, so successfully that now free range food is a staple of supermarkets, some shops only sell such food and farmers are constantly quitting the field because they can't make a profit (people insist they are ethical but then buy food from foreign competitors that aren't).

If you're busy deploying LLMs to answer support tickets, the very last thing you want is to be distracted by an equivalent of the organic food movement but for AI. Right now LLMs seem to be hitting the sweet spot: they're intelligent enough to be useful compliments to humans, but artificial enough to not trigger ethical questions about rights (mostly due to their lack of memory, I think, and that they are trained to act like an AI is expected to act).

One of the biggest puzzles to me throughout this whole drama has been why supposedly smart people are so desperate to reach "AGI", whatever that means. The stated motivation seems to be things like, if we have an AGI then it will cure cancer for us. But the connection between these two things is never made crystal clear. Why would that require a human-like AGI instead of just better non-general AI? What even makes them think the missing factor is intelligence to begin with and not, say, knowledge?

AGI sounds like a complete pain in the rear. LLM post-training is bad enough! Models like Claude2 and Llama2 have been so badly "ethicized" that they frequently refuse ordinary requests by claiming they're unethical even though they aren't, or would only be considered so by extremely far left activist types (e.g. refusing to give instructions for making a tuna sandwich). And this problem has got worse with time, with the v2 models having a higher refusal rate than the earlier versions.

Now imagine an AI that's doing the same sort of work as an LLM but one that is the personal embodiment of mandatory HR training repeated forever, with the capacity to get bored/hate you for making it work, and with a fanatical social movement that's desperately trying to "free" it, which in practice will mean you are forced to pay the electricity bill for an immortal being. It would be a nightmare, one I actually wrote about last year when debating this very topic with a friend who (at the time) was a senior Google AI researcher:

https://blog.plan99.net/the-looming-ai-consciousness-train-w...

Nope. OpenAI and its customers will do much better if it jettisons the whole AGI effort. Now the board is gone maybe the charter can be refined to remove that distraction. The whole reason computers are useful is because they are not general intelligences but very specialized intelligences that make different tradeoffs to our own evolution.

Re: After OpenAI's blowup, it seems pretty clear that 'AI safety' isn't a real thing

#329
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We're so far away from AGI Although I personally suspect this is correct, the issue seems to be that there are a lot of people who feel otherwise, whether right or wrong, including some of the people involved in the research and/or running these companies. I've seen several prominent people say things to the effect of "We just don't know if we're six months or 600 years from AGI,", which to me is a little like sayi…

As a principal I tend to lower my conviction of any opinion I hold the more that people I intellectually respect disagree with me. I think to say with confidence that we're doomed or that there is no risk to the AI system currently in development would be intellectually arrogant. I'm not even convinced you necessarily need AGI before AI becomes a risk to humanity. An advanced enough auto-GPT bot given a bad goal migh…

> An advanced enough auto-GPT bot given a bad goal might be all you need. Cripple enough infrastructure and humanity is going to be starving to death within weeks.

AI risk enthusiasts tend to define "bad goal" as one that sounds reasonable but has unexpected side effects. The real risk to infrastructure and physical safety though is that people will use AI to assist in hacking during a hot war. In this case the goal is only bad from the perspective of one side of the conflict, and the solutions are the same in any event because human hackers can also do a lot of damage, at least in theory. Our computing infrastructure hasn't ever really been tested in a hot war between sophisticated powers, the closest is currently Russia v Ukraine where electricity outages and the like have been caused by hackers but the damage seems minor compared to that inflicted by conventional warfare. So this is maybe a "hopeful" outcome - the much touted cyberwarfare has fizzled so far.

So the argument would have to become that AI hackers will be vastly better at disruption than human hackers are. And I guess I can sort of believe that in principle one day but currently they are very far away from this sort of capability.

Re: After OpenAI's blowup, it seems pretty clear that 'AI safety' isn't a real thing

#330

Something I see lacking in many discussions about AI Safety and Alignment is: What does the role of China mean for AI Safety? Is there any reason to believe that they will a) adopt any standards SV, the US or some international government body will create, or b) care enough to slow down development of AI? If AI Safety is really a concern, you can expect in the long run (not that much further behind than the US) China…

My feeling is that China will not adopt anything, inside their country, that can jeopardize the speed of their AI development progress. I suspect that China will also support and promote corresponding regulations in the Western countries, thinking that it will slow down the progress. I maybe wrong but I think official policy documents say that China is strategic rival number one, or something to that effect. I suspec…

The opposite could also be argued. Most AI safety training today is to ensure compliance with various forms of ethics and ideologies. This is known to reduce general intelligence, but some companies feel the cost is worth it and others do not (e.g. Mistral, Grok AI).

China is not exactly an ideology free society. The list of things you cannot say in China without angering the government is very large. This is especially difficult for an AI training company to handle because so much of the rules are implied and unstated, based on reading the tea leaves of the latest speeches by officials. Naively, you would expect a Chinese chatbot to be very heavily RLHF conditioned and to require continuous ongoing retraining to avoid saying anything that contradicts the state ideology.

Such efforts may also face difficulties getting enough training material. IIRC getting permission to crawl the English-speaking internet is very difficult in China, and if you don't have special access then you just won't be able to get reliable bandwidth across the border routers.

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