Earlier quoted context omitted.
At the moment I read "how to reason" in the headline my bullshit detector started to go off. LLMs do not reason, they do not think, they are not AGI. They generate by regurgitating.
I haven’t heard a definition of “reasoning” or “thinking” that proves humans aren’t doing exactly that same probabilistic regurgitation. I don’t think it’s possible to prove; feels like a philosophical question.
We have the ability to follow a chain of reasoning, say "that didn't work out", backtrack, and consider another. ChatGPT seems to get tangled up when its first (very good) attempt goes south.
This is definitely a barrier that can be crossed by computers. AlphaZero is better than we are at it. But it is a thing we do which we clearly don't simply do with the probabilistic regurgitation method that ChatGPT uses.
That said, the human brain combines a bunch of different areas that seem to work in different ways. Our ability to engage in this kind of reason, for example, is known to mostly happen in the left frontal cortex. So it seems likely that AGI will also need to combine different modules that work in different ways.
On that note, when you add tools to ChatGPT, it suddenly can do a lot more than it did before. If those tools include the right feedback loops, the ability to store/restore context, and so on, what could it then do? This isn't just a question of putting the right capabilities in a box. They have to work together for a goal. But I'm sure that we haven't achieved the limit of what can be achieved.