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Persuasion through status rather than argument

robkhenderson.com

71–80 of 251 posts

Re: Persuasion through status rather than argument

#71
post #2

Can the author provide example of dumb ideas? Or is it "dumb ideas" == "ideas I disagree with" More generally, it seems like the recipe of this breed of substack author is to take a basic object level opinion e.g. "I don’t like pronoun people" or "AI people are dumb" and turn it a whole pseudo intellectual rant without ever getting to the point.

Madoff, WeWork, Theranos, NFTs, … Looking ahead… Probably these vector db company valuations, most companies doing AWS competitor DX plays.

I have one that I think is worst than all of them. CloudKitchen.

Re: Persuasion through status rather than argument

#72
A lot of intelligent people aren't very smart, and a lot of smart people aren't very intelligent. The smart achive desirable outcomes, and usually that means not rocking the boat. The intelligent have a capacity for abstraction, which means it's easy to misunderstand why people are parroting absurdities. Where a good programmer is intelligent, a good product manager is smart.

I was surprised he didn't include this Dalrymple quote, "propaganda was not to persuade or convince, not to inform, but to humiliate; and therefore, the less it corresponded to reality the better. When people are forced to remain silent when they are being told the most obvious lies, or even worse when they are forced to repeat the lies themselves, they lose once and for all their sense of probity. To assent to obvious lies is in some small way to become evil oneself. One's standing to resist anything is thus eroded, and even destroyed. A society of emasculated liars is easy to control."

It captures the issue more succintly, but it would also have limited the reach of the article. I'm sure he's familiar with it, but the author was probably just being smart.

Re: Persuasion through status rather than argument

#74
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't read any criticism of capitalism because there is basically none. 99% of it is just people claiming that some abstract bad thing in human society is due to "capitalism" without any sort of argument that would actually rise to the level of what I would call criticism.

In an unregulated market, capital very naturally tends to accumulate more capital - while, if you have nothing, it's very hard to build up capital in the first place. Which means that, if this continues indefinitely, more and more things belong to fewer and fewer people - which is exactly what we've been seeing over the last couple of decades.

You have it backwards. Regulation has gone up a lot over the last two decades which is why you're seeing what you're seeing.

Historically in America or current day in developing countries, the rate of growth in living standards negatively correlates with the amount of regulation.

Re: Persuasion through status rather than argument

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that the main point about the hyperloop was the vacuum tube, not the maglev part. And the vacuum tube doesn't actually work. It's not actually feasible to create a vacuum tube hundreds of km long. It's just about physically possible, but it's not really technologically feasible - not for a system that is supposed to be in constant operation all year long. It's also important to remember that vacuum tube trains a…

And besides that you don't have to have a really good vacuum, you just have to have a 'good enough' vacuum that you can attain high speed without losing the stabilizing effect of a bunch of air constrained by the walls of a tube. Bonus points of you can get the air to move at a speed a bit slower than your vehicle, more bonus points if you can use the air to propel your vehicle. But: it's probably still a dumb idea,…

The problem is that if any of that was a good idea, the question is why is the Hyperloop specifically a good idea, but regular old high speed rail is not? What factor are you changing that makes one good, and the other not good enough to get done right now?

(the answer of course is nothing: the Hyperloop would be stupidly expensive, and however fast it is wouldn't solve the logistics problem of loading and unloading it - so whatever quote you've seen for rail, just triple it if you tried to build a hyperloop).

Re: Persuasion through status rather than argument

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah but why did so many people take those guys so seriously before their work was replicated? Shouldn’t extraordinary claims be filtered early before we give them the time of day?

I'm pretty sure that most people that have a basic idea of materials science were simply intrigued (myself amongst them) because there wasn't anything that ruled it out and it seemed like a potentially promising path. And obviously: the truth would come out anyway given enough time. The HN threads of the time make for interesting reading: I think a lot of people approach technological progress from the point of somet…

I would contend that everyone discussing LK-99 took it very rationally. The idea that there were people "falling for it" is made up post-facto by a group who want to feel smugly superior about everything.

Cynicism isn't wisdom though.

Re: Persuasion through status rather than argument

#77
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't read any criticism of capitalism because there is basically none. 99% of it is just people claiming that some abstract bad thing in human society is due to "capitalism" without any sort of argument that would actually rise to the level of what I would call criticism.

In an unregulated market, capital very naturally tends to accumulate more capital - while, if you have nothing, it's very hard to build up capital in the first place. Which means that, if this continues indefinitely, more and more things belong to fewer and fewer people - which is exactly what we've been seeing over the last couple of decades.

But you are wrong. Inequality has not grown over the last 20 years. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA

Re: Persuasion through status rather than argument

#78
post #2

Can the author provide example of dumb ideas? Or is it "dumb ideas" == "ideas I disagree with" More generally, it seems like the recipe of this breed of substack author is to take a basic object level opinion e.g. "I don’t like pronoun people" or "AI people are dumb" and turn it a whole pseudo intellectual rant without ever getting to the point.

Really? You really can't think of a stupid idea of from the past 20 years. I think this is being totally intellectually dishonest or you waste too much time with political bullshit so you have lost the ability to think outside of rhetorical response to win a twitter flame war.

How about all the dumb ideas that lead smart people to basically blow up the financial system in 2008 to start.

Re: Persuasion through status rather than argument

#79
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're probably one of those people who read any criticism of capitalism as a cry for communism.

I don't read any criticism of capitalism because there is basically none. 99% of it is just people claiming that some abstract bad thing in human society is due to "capitalism" without any sort of argument that would actually rise to the level of what I would call criticism.

I think terms like "capitalism" inherently spread confusion rather than clarity.

Specifically, which of these systems do you mean by "capitalism"?

1) The status quo in the US where the economy is dominated by private corporations but the government has some regulations and some safety net. Also, corporations receive a significant amount of welfare from the government, generally control the regulatory agencies and some are primarily funded by the government either directly (NPR/PBS, Amtrak, etc.) or as its primary customer (defense contractors).

2) The system that existed in Gilded Age America where there was very little regulation but lots of corporate welfare and a US Army that would "remove" any American Indians who were causing trouble for the railroads.

3) The libertarian utopia where absolutely everything is privatized.

4) A system where everything except the police and military is privatized, there are virtually no regulations and there is no corporate welfare. Basically the more moderate form of libertarianism.

5) Basically the system we have in the US but with a larger safety net, more regulations and less military spending. In other words the European system that is one of the things commonly called "socialism" in US politics but it is also called "capitalism" when convenient to contrast it against other types of economies.

6) An economy where most people have a reasonable chance of eventually becoming running their own business and where large businesses are generally rare. In this system, creating a corporation might even require an act of a state legislature or the national legislature and would be generally rare and mainly for utilities like long distance transportation. This is the system that generally prevailed in the free states of the US prior to the Gilded Age.

7) The system that existed in the mid-20th century US that is somewhere between 1) and 5). Strong unions, regulations (often captured by corporations), large corporations that make stuff domestically, restrictions on imports, defense contractors exist, etc. The main distinguishing characteristic of this system is a high degree of income equality. CEOs don't make dramatically more than typical workers and even entry level pays a living wage.

At one point, I would have defined "capitalism" as 3 or 4. Today, I'd define it as 6. Most people would probably define it as 1, 2 or 7 which is what I would call "corporatism". I'm also undoubtedly leaving out other definitions of capitalism. The term "socialism" is also unhelpful for the same reason.

People who like "capitalism" or "socialism" define it as an economic system they like then use the other word to define a system they don't like. Then they talk past people who have different definitions of those terms. An argument about Venezuela or the USSR is not a reasonable argument to use against somebody who wants the Nordic model in the US or to go back to the mid-20th century economic system. An argument about corporate welfare or defense contractors is not a reasonable argument to use against a libertarian.

Re: Persuasion through status rather than argument

#80
post #74
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In an unregulated market, capital very naturally tends to accumulate more capital - while, if you have nothing, it's very hard to build up capital in the first place. Which means that, if this continues indefinitely, more and more things belong to fewer and fewer people - which is exactly what we've been seeing over the last couple of decades.

You have it backwards. Regulation has gone up a lot over the last two decades which is why you're seeing what you're seeing. Historically in America or current day in developing countries, the rate of growth in living standards negatively correlates with the amount of regulation.

You haven't responded to my main point: do you believe that a completely unregulated market doesn't lead to wealth accumulation in the hands of few people?

It is of course true that some (bad) regulation, like protectionism of various sorts, can also lead to the same outcome in a different way.

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