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I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

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Re: I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

#161
You can't autocomplete if you don't understand. It's talking the talk.

But there's levels of understanding. That's where TFA's logical understanding comes in, because it makes possible entirely new insights. It's walking the walk.

How routine is it for human's to have entirely new insights? Note here we mean, new to them. I suggest we do it all the time. Every time a child understands something new. Even if it is "taught" to them, they must acquire the insight for themselves.

funfact: Shannon investigated how good humans are at predicting the next letter of English text (one-character "autocomplete"?), to estimate the information entropy of text. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35813991

Re: I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

#162

Here is a question: What is the practical significance of viewing "AI" as autocomplete versus some other idea. Why try to influence how others view using a computer. Why anthromorphise. These are questions for which I have answers, but of course they are personal opinions. Historically, programmers often like to refer to programming as "magic". But magic is illusion, entertaintainment, tricks. Believing in "magic" is…

> Why not describe things in terms of what they do instead of what they "are".

Would you say that about your spouse? The beauty of beholding one's wife is in who and what she is. What she does tells us something about who and what she is, to be sure, but any attempt to suppress the what (and the who) is dehumanizing and objectifying.

But, of course, what a thing does depends on what that thing is.

The reason I can say a human being can sort a list of numbers is because human beings have intention. When a human being sorts of list of numbers, they intend to sort the list. The intention is the cause and explanation for the actions taken the lead to a list of ordered numbers, as well as the resulting list of ordered numbers.

Does a computer sort numbers? In common speech, we say it does, just as we use all sorts of anthropomorphizing language when discussing computers. But at best, this is loose and analogical language. That's fine, as far as it goes, as long as we don't take it or mean it literally. However, the computer itself lacks intention. It is our intention that produces the computer, and our intention that makes the computer an instrument used by us to sort. Taken by itself, the computer is undergoing a transformation that effects something that we may interpreted as a list of sorted numbers, but the computer itself is not sorting. You wouldn't say that the clouds add x and y when x liters of water falls into a pool of y liters.

> The latter is highly subjective and open to abuse.

On the contrary, what a thing is is the most real and objective thing there is. An effect cannot be understood without knowing the cause, and the cause cannot be understood without knowing the agent. You can know some things about the effect, sure, and here the effect is that the text produced may be interpreted as intelligible. But the apparent intelligibility is borrowed from the source text, perhaps just a clever trick.

Re: I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

#163
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the difference though. I know my world model is fundamentally incomplete. Even more foundationally, I know that there is a world, and when my world model and the world disagree, the world wins. To a neural network there is no distinction. The closest the entire dynamic comes is the very basic annotation of RLHF which itself is done by an external human who is providing the value judgment, but even that is abse…

There is no such thing as a world model, and you don't have one of them. This is a leftover bad psychological concept from the 70s AI researchers who never got anywhere. People and other creatures do very little modeling things, they mostly just do stuff.

World model means inner representation of the external world. Any organism with a functioning brain has a world model. That's what brains do.

If you don't have a world model then you are a vegetable and could not be replying on HN.

Re: I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

#164
post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no such thing as a world model, and you don't have one of them. This is a leftover bad psychological concept from the 70s AI researchers who never got anywhere. People and other creatures do very little modeling things, they mostly just do stuff.

World model means inner representation of the external world. Any organism with a functioning brain has a world model. That's what brains do. If you don't have a world model then you are a vegetable and could not be replying on HN.

If you close your eyes, how long can you navigate in the environment without hitting something? Not long, because you didn't model it.

If you're taking out the recycling, do you take the time to identify (model) each piece of it first? No, because that's not necessary.

Re: I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

#165
post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

World model means inner representation of the external world. Any organism with a functioning brain has a world model. That's what brains do. If you don't have a world model then you are a vegetable and could not be replying on HN.

If you close your eyes, how long can you navigate in the environment without hitting something? Not long, because you didn't model it. If you're taking out the recycling, do you take the time to identify (model) each piece of it first? No, because that's not necessary.

Wait, you actually think we are talking about modelling as a conscious deliberate process in active working memory? Well there's your fundamental mistake. That is not what we are discussing, not even remotely.

The vast model in your brain is learned and generated unconsciously without your direct awareness.

Re: I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

#166
Current language models fail in all sorts of quantifiable ways, but I think that trying to discuss their merits away by reasoning about what it means to 'truly understand' something, or to be 'truly intelligent' is a complete dead-end.

It seems to me that it's based on the magical thought that there's something truly special and unique about us humans, as compared to other species or technology. Those discussions always seem more theological than science-driven to me. If you want to measure the difference between human performance and LLMs, there's a million experiments you can run. I'll gladly be convinced by data, and I'm open to the possibility that the data might point in either direction, or be inconclusive. But grand words without data are not convincing.

Re: I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

#167
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the difference though. I know my world model is fundamentally incomplete. Even more foundationally, I know that there is a world, and when my world model and the world disagree, the world wins. To a neural network there is no distinction. The closest the entire dynamic comes is the very basic annotation of RLHF which itself is done by an external human who is providing the value judgment, but even that is abse…

I do agree, but more importantly love this part of the argument! Its when all the personality differences become too much to bear and suddenly people are accused of not even knowing themselves. Been there before, what a wild ride!

> suddenly people are accused of not even knowing themselves

It's not some desperate retort. People don't know themselves very well. Look at the research into confabulation, it seems to be standard operating procedure for human brains.

Re: I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

#168
post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> with LLMs where it is able to declare a novel function and then use it. Novel as in "implements a new algorithm that has never seen in any form and is actually an improvement over existing methodology"? Here is a little thought experiment: If all the training data in the set says that manned, powered flight is impossible, is a statistical prediction engine trained on that data capable of developing an airplane? In…

Now I’m wondering if birds didn’t exist how much longer would it take us to catch on that flight is possible at all.

Birds are just stochastic parrots after all.

Re: I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

#169

I agree with Hinton, although a lot hinges on your definition of "understand." I think to best wrap your head around this stuff, you should look to the commonalities of LLM's, image, generators, and even things like Alpha Zero and how it learned to play Go. Alpha Zero is kind of the extreme in terms of not imitating anything that humans have done. It learns to play the game simply by playing itself -- and what they f…

If LLMs are just glorified autocompletion, then humans are too!
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