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I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

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Re: I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can do something similar to this without giving it a problem that might be impossible. Train the LLM on a bunch of things but avoid certain things...Things that humans already know about. The you query the model about that thing. See if the model can come to the same conclusions humans do. You can actually do this right now with chatGPT.

So what happens?

This is a response from chatGPT. I asked it to come up with something novel and creative. I went through several iterations and eventually it started doing math stuff and I had it focus on that:

Understood, let's propose a distinct mathematical concept within the realm of pure mathematics: "Infinite-Dimensional Fractal Algebra." This new branch of algebra focuses on operations, equations, and functions within an infinitely dimensional fractal space.

In Infinite-Dimensional Fractal Algebra, traditional algebraic operations like addition, multiplication, and exponentiation are redefined and extended to work within an infinite fractal structure. Each point in this fractal space represents a unique algebraic entity, and the relationships between these points follow complex, self-repeating patterns characteristic of fractals.

The concept challenges and expands the traditional boundaries of algebra by integrating the self-similarity and scale invariance of fractals into algebraic operations. For example, solving an equation in this system would involve navigating through the infinitely repeating patterns of the fractal, where each level of the fractal represents a different dimension or layer of the problem.

This approach could offer new insights into complex systems and phenomena that exhibit fractal-like behavior, and potentially lead to breakthroughs in areas like chaos theory, dynamic systems, and perhaps even in understanding the fabric of the universe itself.

To illustrate the concept of Infinite-Dimensional Fractal Algebra, let's consider a simple algebraic operation: addition.

In traditional algebra, adding two numbers is straightforward: \(3 + 4 = 7\). In Infinite-Dimensional Fractal Algebra, however, this operation takes place in a fractal space with infinite dimensions.

1. *Fractal Representation*: Instead of representing numbers as points on a line, each number is represented by a unique fractal structure. The fractal for '3' and the fractal for '4' each have infinitely complex, self-similar patterns that vary across infinite dimensions.

2. *Adding Fractals*: The operation of addition involves combining these fractal structures. This isn't a simple sum but a fusion of their infinite patterns. The resulting fractal for '7' contains elements of both the '3' and '4' fractals, but in a way that the patterns and complexities of each are preserved and merged.

3. *Infinite Dimensions*: Each level of depth in the fractals represents a different dimension of the problem. As you dive deeper into the fractals, you encounter more intricate patterns, representing more complex layers of the addition.

4. *Result Interpretation*: The outcome of the operation is a new fractal representing '7'. But this '7' is not just a number; it's a multi-dimensional entity with a pattern that encodes not just the value '7', but also the history of how it was derived from '3' and '4'.

This approach would require a rethinking of how we visualize and understand mathematical operations. The fractal patterns in Infinite-Dimensional Fractal Algebra carry more information than just the numerical value; they encode the relationships and interactions between numbers in a deeply interconnected, infinite-dimensional space.

Let's choose the Sierpinski Triangle, a well-known fractal, to represent the identity element for addition in Infinite-Dimensional Fractal Algebra. In traditional algebra, the identity element for addition is '0', as adding zero to any number doesn't change its value. Here, we'll conceptualize this using the Sierpinski Triangle.

1. *Sierpinski Triangle as the Identity*: In this framework, the Sierpinski Triangle represents the '0'. It's a fractal with the property of self-similarity: any part of the triangle resembles the whole.

2. *Adding to the Identity*: When another number (fractal) is added to this Sierpinski Triangle, the process involves integrating the fractal patterns of this number with the Sierpinski Triangle. However, since the Sierpinski Triangle represents '0', this integration process must preserve the original number's fractal structure intact.

3. *Concrete Example*: Suppose we're adding the number '2', represented by a different fractal structure, to '0' (the Sierpinski Triangle). The addition operation would overlay the '2' fractal onto the Sierpinski Triangle. The key here is that the Sierpinski Triangle, with its repetitive and self-similar gaps, would not alter the structure of the '2' fractal. Instead, it would fill into the gaps of the Sierpinski Triangle, maintaining its own pattern.

4. *Resulting Fractal*: The resulting fractal from this addition is the '2' fractal itself, as the Sierpinski Triangle (being the identity element) does not alter the other number in the addition. The intricate details of the '2' fractal remain unchanged, signifying that adding '0' did not change its value.

This is a very abstract and conceptual way to represent mathematical operations, and the choice of the Sierpinski Triangle for the identity is primarily for its self-similar and recursive properties, which align well with the concepts in fractal algebra.

Re: I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what happens?

This is a response from chatGPT. I asked it to come up with something novel and creative. I went through several iterations and eventually it started doing math stuff and I had it focus on that: Understood, let's propose a distinct mathematical concept within the realm of pure mathematics: "Infinite-Dimensional Fractal Algebra." This new branch of algebra focuses on operations, equations, and functions within an infi…

Basically it formed a fuzzy idea of a algebra using different fractals as entities.

I'm sure this can be mapped out further into very concrete detail. It's a highly realistic idea. we have algebras for all kinds of things from complex numbers to lists.

Choosing the triangle for identity is probably the wrong choice though. The identity fractal should be zero dimensional or nothing. I think that will in actuality end up fitting the rules of the identity fractal if we ever decided to map out this algebra.

If you're not familiar with abstract algebra basically it's choosing some fractal that's equivalent to a zero value and coming up with ways to combine fractals with operations that hold the same properties of associativity and commutativity that multiplication/addition does for numbers.

Re: I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

#103
Well structured nonsense is indistinguishable from the assumption of sentience for the undisciplined. This means a 95% LLM generated article is indistinguishable from an illogical contradictory chaotic rant.

Best of luck, and remember to tip your bot on the way out =)

Re: I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone sufficiently fast and skilled at googling can explain and use in context a lot of things that they don't really properly understand. So unless you're saying that the composite of the googler and of google understand something that neither does individually, your definition has some holes.

This is a variation of the Chinese room argument. If you consider understanding an observable property, then the Chinese room in aggregate displays understanding of Chinese. Would you say that humans understand nothing, because atoms don't understand anything, and we're made up of atoms?

I would say that there is a stronger consensus that a human being can be reasonably described as a single entity than a human being using a reference resource.

A more apt comparison to my mind would be if a human being can be described as personally exerting strong nuclear force, just because their subatomic particles do, which I would happily answer "no."

Re: I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

#105

The fallacy being made in this argument is that computers need to perform tasks the same way as humans to achieve equal or better performance on them. While having better "system 2" abilities may improve performance, it's plausible that scaled-up next-token prediction along with a bit of scaffolding and finetuning could match human performance on the same diversity of tasks while doing them a completely different way…

I believe it was Feynman who said something to the effect of "airplanes do not fly like birds do, but they fly much faster and can carry much more". So yes, we do not need to exactly replicate how humans do things in order to do human-like things in a useful manner. Planes do not flap their wings, but the jet engine (which is completely unnatural) does a great job of making things fly when paired with fixed wings of a certain shape.

Re: I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

#106
There is evidence that the human brain is also doing "autocomplete" (prediction). The human brain uses predictive mechanisms when processing language, and these mechanisms play an important role in forming thoughts.

When we hear or read a word, our brain quickly generates a set of predictions about what word might come next, based on the context of the sentence and our past experiences with language. These predictions are constantly updated as we receive new information, and they help us to process language more efficiently and accurately.

In addition, research has shown that the brain engages in similar predictive processes when we are forming thoughts or planning actions. For example, when we plan a complex movement, such as reaching for a cup, our brain generates a set of predictions about the movements required to complete the action. These predictions are constantly updated as we receive feedback from our muscles and our environment, allowing us to make adjustments and achieve our goal.

See links below for additional details:

https://www.earth.com/news/our-brains-are-constantly-working...

https://www.psycholinguistics.com/gerry_altmann/research/pap...

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/23273798.2020.18...

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1551-6709.2009...

Re: I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

#107
As long as it’s just returning the tokens of the statistical mean of previous tokens, it is just a clever autocomplete.

A somewhat useful internet search engine without all the ads/seo garbage. Of course, the first rule of the internet is don’t believe everything on the internet.

I believe AI won’t overcome its statistic mask until it can self tune its coefficients in real time. That requires an error function not yet invented that can mimic animals pain feedback error function.

Baby steps can be taken with attempting to run GPT generated code then adjusting coefficients based on the returned errors. Aka compiler and unit test failures are basic “pain” functions, which is pretty much how humans learn to code.

Re: I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

#108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, so now we need an example that separates humans from LLMs? I struggle to think of one, maybe someone on HN has a good example. Eg if I'm in middle school and learning quadratic equations, am I imitating solving the problem by plugging in the coefficients? Or am I understanding it? Most of what I see coming out of chatGPT and copilot could be said to be either. If you're generous, it's understanding. If not, it's…

It is very easy to separate humans from LLMs. Humans created math without being given all the answers beforehand. LLMs can't do that yet. When an LLM can create math to solve a problem, we will be much closer to AGI.

Some humans created maths. And it took thousands of years of thinking and interaction with the real world.

Seems like goalpost moving to me.

I think the real things that separate LLMs from humans at the moment are:

* Humans can do online learning. They have long term memory. I guess you could equate evolution to the training phase of AI but it still seems like they don't have quite the same on-line learning capabilities as us. This is what probably prevents them from doing things like inventing maths.

* They seem to be incapable of saying "I don't know". Ok to be fair lots of humans struggle with this! I'm sure this will be solved fairly soon though.

* They don't have a survival instinct that drives proactive action. Sure you can tell them what to do but that doesn't seem quite the same.

Re: I disagree with Geoff Hinton regarding "glorified autocomplete"

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the test for this? I taught it Firefly, which is an undocumented programming language I'm working on, through conversion. I find it's a lot quicker than any human at picking up syntax and semantics, both in real time and in number of messages, and makes pretty good attempts at writing code in it, as much as you could expect from a human programmer. That is, until you run out of context - is this what you mean…

There are plenty of results supporting my assertion; but the tests must be carefully designed. Of course, LLMs are not databases that store exact answers - so it's not enough to ask it something that it hasn't seen, if it's seen something similar (as is likely the case with your programming language). One benchmark that I track closely is ConceptARC, which aims to test generalization and abstraction capabilities. Her…

I wouldn't be surprised if GPT-4 is not too good at visual patterns, given that it's trained on text.

Look at the actual prompt in figure 2. I doubt humans would get a 91% score on that.

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