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280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

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Re: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

#131

Post by sgu999 »

simmanian wrote: post #48

I bought an ebike to complement my aging 2007 Toyota instead of replacing it outright with another car. I use the bike for most light use cases within the 10 mile radius and still lean into using my car when needed. Here are my takes on ebikes. Pros: - Ebikes help people punch above their weight class, allowing them to bike farther and faster - Going uphill is much easier - Ebikes encourage people to be more adventur…

> - Good ebikes cost as much as my 2007 toyota

Car manufacturers are operating on razor thin margins and intend to recoup some of it elsewhere... or at least I've been told.

I agree that the price of ebikes really doesn't seem to match their value. They are in the same price range as electric mopeds, which have a much bigger battery, need more material to build and have to abide by more regulations.

Is it because the target is a rather young white-collar worker who live close enough to their office and is thus richer?

Re: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

#132

Post by mbil »

kibwen wrote: post #19

Would anyone here like to recommend (or disrecommend) any e-bike models?

I have a RadCity 4 with fenders and a basket. It’s much heavier than a regular bike. But it’s quite fun to ride and can hit 25mph. My city is rather flat and has passable bike infrastructure.

I haven’t used it all that much simply because I enjoy walking and usually do that. But for certain travel scenarios it’s awesome. I upgraded from a 20 minute car ride across town to a 30 minute e-bike ride.

Re: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

#133

Post by shortcake27 »

aftbit wrote: post #75
thelastgallon wrote: post #2

We don't need a 4000 lb vehicle to move a ~200 lb person. In order of efficiency: (1) Walk (2) Unicycle, roller skate, scooter (no battery, very little material) (2) Bike (3) Electric bike (and all forms of newfangled electric: escooters, segways) (4) Electric motorbike or scooter (5) Mass transit (can be public/private) transportation: Electric trains (6) Mass transit (can be public/private) transportation: Electric…

Certainly in the Bay it's pretty easy to get by with no car at all - just rent or borrow one if you want to take a trip to Tahoe every once in a while. If you go deeper into the country though, there are many places where car ownership is nearly mandatory, especially for people who can't WFH. EVs are pretty close to being able to replace ICE cars around here, but still can't match the range, cost, or longevity of an…

> but once or twice a year, we take a 1000 mile road trip that would be considerably more painful in an EV. If we're only going to own one car, it still needs to be ICE.

You could just rent a car for those two trips like you suggested yourself in your first paragraph ;). Optimise for the most common scenario, not the least common one.

> Would I still be able to run a 2023 EV in 2044? Will the batteries last that long, with any sort of usable range?

Replacing the battery pack on an EV once every 15 years is certainly cheaper than all the maintenance that goes into an ICE in the same timeframe. Hopefully we can start recycling batteries properly before the current generation of EVs is up for battery replacements.

Re: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

#134

Post by hurryer »

local_crmdgeon wrote: post #86

A few people have asked for recommendations, and I just spent months researching ebikes to buy. Cheap and cheerful: Priority Current. Mid hub, internally-geared rear hub, upright position, cheap. Can get from Costco on fat discount for $2,600. Not a cargo bike, but amazing to go to the shops. Longer-term: Specialized Globe Haul. I feel the same way about it as I do my pickup truck - it can go anywhere, do anything, a…

Looking at both of them, they look very heavy (not considering the motor and battery).

And the gearing seems limited.

Are they actually usable in non-electric mode?

Re: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

#135

Post by adolph »

There is limited support in the article for the headline claim. The largest BEV transition is in the very large fleet of Chinese mopeds, from ICE to EV. As a result less oil is being used in that segment. It isn't a transition from ICE car to BEV moped as many comments opine. The article links to a Bloomberg document quoted below.

EVs of all types are currently displacing 1.5 million barrels per day of oil demand. 67% of this is from two- and three-wheeled vehicles and 16% is from buses. Passenger vehicles represent just 15% of displacement today, but this is set to grow sharply. [0]

In chart "Global EV Fleet sizes by segment and market" [1] Electric two- and three-wheelers are 95% in the China market.

0. https://bnef.turtl.co/story/evo-2022/page/7/1

1. https://bnef.turtl.co/story/evo-2022/page/3/1

Re: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

#136

Post by wtp1saac »

nurple wrote: post #106
kibwen wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The damage is so deep that it feels irreversible at this point, like the US will be doomed to cars and traffic forever. There's lots of energy to change things, but you need to find the right city. It will still take 50 years to even approach the level of Amsterdam, but here in Boston I live car-free and the bike infrastructure is getting better every year. Right now the problem is density: solving the car problem…

Or perhaps it means building less-dense light commercial? I'm not a big fan of the perspective that our only solution to the current housing issues are to package humans in quarters whose main selling point over chicken coops is that your feces don't fall on the heads of your downstairs neighbors.

the idea that there is either the zero-density of single family homes, versus giant apartments that are skyscrapers with thin ceilings and walls, is a false choice due to the US’s bad urban planning.

there are a lot of density options between everywhere USA and Manhattan - row homes for example - that would give a pleasant middle ground and still massively improve density and walkability

Re: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

#137

Post by Mountain_Skies »

kibwen wrote: post #43
kjkjadksj wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet the commute is a full ten trips a week you can eliminate. People aren’t running errands 10x a week. The clear roads and clear skies early in the pandemic showed us what this would look like if more people worked remotely.

Note that I'm not against remote work, rather I'm all for it. But programmers like us here on HN are prone to tunnel vision on this topic: most people cannot bring their work home. Nurses, lab techs, construction workers, factory workers, plumbers, electricians, all these people still need to commute, and so we need to design our cities accordingly.

Programmers aren't the only people who have work compatible with working remotely. My post explicitly was restricted to those whose jobs can be done remotely and laments that there are other forces at play that interfere with this ability. Most of those force like to bath themselves in greenwash. There's no need for any improvement to work for 100% of humanity for it to be an improvement. Stopping the good because it's not the perfect just stops anything good from happening.

Re: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

#138

Post by ProllyInfamous »

simmanian wrote: post #48

I bought an ebike to complement my aging 2007 Toyota instead of replacing it outright with another car. I use the bike for most light use cases within the 10 mile radius and still lean into using my car when needed. Here are my takes on ebikes. Pros: - Ebikes help people punch above their weight class, allowing them to bike farther and faster - Going uphill is much easier - Ebikes encourage people to be more adventur…

Link (to REI gen 1.2 ebike): rei.com/product/190640/co-op-cycles-generation-e12-electric-bike

How fast'll this lil'baby go, for a fat 250lb'er like me?

Re: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

#139

Post by nicoburns »

r00fus wrote: post #126
davidw wrote: post #21

I do almost all the grocery shopping for our family of 4 with a Rad Runner Plus with a large basket and bag. I love that bike. Even as someone pretty comfortable getting around on a 'regular' bike, having that extra power just makes it a really easy choice for more trips compared to the car. If it's hot out, it is so much nicer to hop on the bike and get an instant breeze compared to a hot stuffy car. If it's cold ou…

My biggest frustration with bikes here in the US is the lack of security in high traffic areas. The fact that law enforcement doesn't seem to care about stolen bikes is a huge hurdle in my desire to bike to the store, leave alone paying thousands for a decent e-bike that I'd be even more worried about. I say this as an avid cyclist.

You should be able to get bike insurance. I pay £7/month to insure mine, which is lot cheaper than car insurance!
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