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The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

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Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#201

Post by ianburrell »

jcranmer wrote: post #162
DaiPlusPlus wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Are you aware that the US has the largest rail network of any country in the world, almost the size of the next two (both of whom are geographically larger than the US) combined? Well of course, the US is a big country - but the overall density of rail (both freight and passenger rail) is lacking compared to Europe (and China too, I think?). I live in the Seattle metro area where the major cities (Everett, Seattle,…

If you measure by mode share, the US railroad industry actually has a higher mode share than most European countries. The main issue with the freight rail industry in the US is that it's over-optimizing for the ultra-long-haul extreme bulk delivery--essentially acting as extensions of ports 1000's of miles inland--and abandoning local freight (where you drop off a car or two once a month or so) in the process. But th…

The ideal would be electrified trains for long distance, and battery semis for local.

The rail companies have not been looking after their infrastructure since they are cutting costs heavily. I read that one reason for Amtrak's poor performance is that freight railroads have single-tracked lines and removed passing sections leading to passenger trains stuck by freight trains.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#202

Post by candiddevmike »

derekp7 wrote: post #98
enragedcacti wrote: post #73

> During the installation process, the Megachargers took down the power grid for a good chunk of the city [imagine what happens when 100% of ICE vehicles have switched over to BEV in California by 2035]. A little bit tangential, but 2035 marks the ban on new passenger ICE vehicles. Given the average age of cars in the US, California probably won't even be at 50% passenger BEVs by 2035, let alone 100% of ALL vehicles.…

My question is what happens to gas stations as the changeover is underway? They make razor thin margins and rely on selling a lot of gas to turn a profit, which leads me to believe there will start to be fewer gas stations even when only 20% of cars on the road are electric (just my conjecture, but it seems to make sense to me). Now as gas stations start to thin out, that would put a damper on people buying gas cars…

Gas stations are trying to become restaurants/grocery stores.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#203

Post by thsksbd »

tonmoy wrote: post #19
thsksbd wrote: post #12

Batteries on semis dont make much sense to me. Hybrid systems on heavy inner city vehicles make a lot of sense. As do hybrids in mountainous areas. But long distance hauling? BS. Semi engines are large with very low power to displacement ratio -> they are very fuel efficient. Truck builders' customers are very sensitive to fuel consumption. I find it very hard to believe that marginal grid power (ie thermal plant), t…

We need to go to net zero somehow. With carbon capture or carbon offset technologies near non existing, we have to make the switch sooner or later

Even if I concede your premise that our pressing need to decarburize, I am not clear what it is you are proposing. Surely not fast EV adoption!

I specifically point out that rapid adoption of EVs at the expense of hybrids given limited batteries is slowing the decarbonization of the transportation sector even if we assume EVs run on fairies' farts

This is because an EV has many many times more batteries than a hybrid, so (if you do the math) it ends up being much worse to run EVs even assuming their energy doesnt come from anywhere than it is to replace regular cars with hybrids.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#204

Post by clouddrover »

wilg wrote: post #198
clouddrover wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Volvo has delivered trucks. Here's one charging up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UAttTG03WA Here's another one charging: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ovq4Tniknd4 Here are some more Volvo trucks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MquCx4VRV3Q Here's Volvo driving electric trucks in Australia: https://www.volvotrucks.com.au/en-au/news/press-releases/202... More Volvos in Australia. Apparently Volvo can't stop deliv…

I'm not saying the trucks don't physically exist, just that I can't find evidence of deliveries to customers. Your approach to evidence here seems very lacking. - The first one we don't know if it's a customer. Why couldn't it be a prototype? Some guy just saw it charging? - The second one isn't a semi truck. - The third one seems to be footage of people sitting in a demo truck of some kind from a PR event about open…

Good grief.

More Volvos (and Scanias): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sq4jpgrMk64

And more Volvos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWKHFiB4XG8

And more Volvos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrkbPwlz_YY

And more Volvos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ocC5qdrAOU

And more Volvos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Dgdk555G0g

And more Volvos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3EA6Y5CT2E

You really need to stop allowing yourself to be brainwashed to this extent by Tesla advertising. It's not doing you any good.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#205

Post by rootusrootus »

LeoPanthera wrote: post #164
gumby wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you in California? There is a lemon law that should apply to what you describe. You’ll get your money back.

From the other comment: It's three years old, and was only undrivable for a total of about a week. It does not quality for lemon.

The three year part is probably not a problem, if you are in California, because lemon law there applies through the entire factory warranty period. The outage time is 30 days, but maybe you'd count on number of attempts. 4 or more to fix the same problem would do it.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#206

Post by rootusrootus »

dexwiz wrote: post #130
derekp7 wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My question is what happens to gas stations as the changeover is underway? They make razor thin margins and rely on selling a lot of gas to turn a profit, which leads me to believe there will start to be fewer gas stations even when only 20% of cars on the road are electric (just my conjecture, but it seems to make sense to me). Now as gas stations start to thin out, that would put a damper on people buying gas cars…

If EV companies get their way, we probably won’t be buying personal cars except as luxury or work items by 2035. Everything with be subscriptions, either leases, short term rentals, or taxis.

Every EV on the market today is offered without a subscription and you can buy it outright.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#207

Post by thsksbd »

wilg wrote: post #196
thsksbd wrote: post #12

Batteries on semis dont make much sense to me. Hybrid systems on heavy inner city vehicles make a lot of sense. As do hybrids in mountainous areas. But long distance hauling? BS. Semi engines are large with very low power to displacement ratio -> they are very fuel efficient. Truck builders' customers are very sensitive to fuel consumption. I find it very hard to believe that marginal grid power (ie thermal plant), t…

Hybrids don't solve the problem, you need zero-emission. This is for long-distance hauling.

Which problem? Please be more clear, more specific instead of using slogans. As I understand you want to cut emissions, reduce it to zero.

Fine.

EV vehicles generally, and EV semis in particular, are a massive impediment to the rapid decarbonization of the transportation sector.

Why?

1. A large EV semi has a gargantuan amount of batteries.

2. Batteries are a finite resource, limited by our ability to produce them.

3. Semi engines are very fuel efficient, as far as thermal cycles go.

4. Cities have very many, very inefficient small vehicles undergoing start-stop cycles Most of these vehicles run on straight gasoline.

5. More carbon can be taken off our transportation network by keeping diesel semis and using the batteries an EV semi would have used to hybridize vehicular traffic.

Go ahead, do the math and see that N5 is correct. For representative numbers compare the F150 that comes in regular, hybrid and EV. When opportunity costs are considered, the hybrid F150 kicks the teeth out of the EV one in carbon emissions.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#208

Post by rootusrootus »

_ea1k wrote: post #142
ChuckMcM wrote: post #24

This seems kind of par for the course. What I find strange is that there are busses[1] operating economically with similar time of use (but not top speed) requirements. The whole "car parts scaled up to truck size" is super on brand for their chief technologist. I'm also seeing a bunch of Rivian trucks and Ford E150 lightnings on the roads around the Bay Area which, for me, doesn't bode well for the launch of the Tes…

I think Ford only sold ~3,700 Lightnings in October. I bet Tesla is selling CT at a much faster rate than that by February. Of course, that ultimately depends on price and what trims are available.

I won't be surprised if Tesla has not produced 3700 CTs by the end of 2024. Ignoring the question of how many real buyers exist, pricing, etc, producing them is a problem. Elon himself recently said mass production was farther off, as I recall, like 2025. Those nice big flat body panels don't make the truck easier to produce, but quite the opposite.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#209

Post by jojobas »

Robotbeat wrote: post #78
rootusrootus wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla just makes the biggest headlines. Freightliner had an electric class 8 truck in production before the Tesla. And they're not the only other company doing it. I trust Freightliner to make a big truck a lot more than I'd trust Tesla.

The thing with Tesla's semi truck is the extreme range. Easy to swap in some batteries and make a electric truck. Electric motors and batteries have plenty of power (and gearing can turn that into whatever torque you'd like). It's range , without undue payload reduction. That was always the challenging part. Still is. Freightliner is nowhere near the 450-500 mile range you'd need. They're half that.

The extreme range doesn't eventuate unless you're hauling air (aka potato chips).

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#210

Post by wilg »

clouddrover wrote: post #204
wilg wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying the trucks don't physically exist, just that I can't find evidence of deliveries to customers. Your approach to evidence here seems very lacking. - The first one we don't know if it's a customer. Why couldn't it be a prototype? Some guy just saw it charging? - The second one isn't a semi truck. - The third one seems to be footage of people sitting in a demo truck of some kind from a PR event about open…

Good grief. More Volvos (and Scanias): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sq4jpgrMk64 And more Volvos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWKHFiB4XG8 And more Volvos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrkbPwlz_YY And more Volvos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ocC5qdrAOU And more Volvos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Dgdk555G0g And more Volvos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3EA6Y5CT2E You really need to stop allowing…

bro you are sending me MARKETING VIDEOS and telling me not to be brainwashed by advertising. i simply tried to look up the number of trucks volvo and freightliner SAY they delivered
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