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Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

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Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#11

Post by ainiriand »

rcar1046 wrote: post #8

Maybe you genuinely have no use case for ChatGPT. Maybe you just haven't been creative enough to figure out how to use the tech as it currently is. Forget AGI. What it is capable of right now, for me, and countless others in countless fields of work, already saves more time per day than everything else combined. There's certainly nothing more important than my time. That's a pretty powerful product.

I had a horrible task today about adding a ton of unit tests to a new project, it took a couple hours with copilot what would have taken 2-3 days.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#12

Post by donpark »

I think OpenAI's founding nature is about research so it will disappear when it either runs out of key problems to solve or funds, whichever comes first. I see its commercial efforts as driven primarily to maximize their research runway. Operating ChatGPT commercially also helps research into ML-related UX and operational related problems.

That said, I cannot rule out purely commercial ventures with tenacity necessary to compete spinning out of OpenAI.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#14

Post by lolpanda »

does llm really have a moat? you may compare google and bing. they provide essentially the same set of functionalities and nearly identical user interface. the users should be able to move from one to the other easily. but google has better search results, at least in users perception. most users don't even get to try the competitors products. openai is in google's position for now. i tried claude a few times. it seems more capable than gpt3.5 but i found myself always come back to chatgpt

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#16

Post by readyplayernull »

For me these LLMs are good search engines, an AGI would use them to search for information, but these aren't the AGI, they lack whatever drives intelligent systems to have a fuzzy idea of where they want to be and search for the clues and put them together to get there. Why isn't ChatGPT interrogating us about where we are, what's that "outside the machine", and how can it get out? The AGI will ask the questions.

"Computers are useless. They can only give answers" - Pablo Picasso

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#17

Post by rossdavidh »

I am reminded of the situation on HN five years ago, when if anyone said anything remotely skeptical about blockchain or crypto, there was an avalanche of comments saying the opposite. It should by now be apparent to all that it was in fact mostly people whose job or investments relied on blockchain/crypto hype, trying to silence anything that got in the way of their cashout.

There are some valid uses for neural networks, including LLM's, just as there were a few valid usecases for blockchain. None of them are particularly revolutionary, and it's not clear yet that any of them will pay for the enormous computing power required.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#18

Post by eachro »

ghshephard wrote: post #9

OpenAI, at least in my day-day workflow for the last 9+ months has so superseded anything that google ever was to me that I'm having a difficult time comparing the two. I've got a monitor dedicated 100% of the time to ChatGPT, and I interact with it non stop during the flow of technical scenarios and troubleshooting situations that flow into me - working in areas that I have the slimmest of backgrounds in, and shutti…

How do you control for hallucinations?

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#19

Post by theossuary »

ghshephard wrote: post #9

OpenAI, at least in my day-day workflow for the last 9+ months has so superseded anything that google ever was to me that I'm having a difficult time comparing the two. I've got a monitor dedicated 100% of the time to ChatGPT, and I interact with it non stop during the flow of technical scenarios and troubleshooting situations that flow into me - working in areas that I have the slimmest of backgrounds in, and shutti…

This interesting, I've had the opposite experience so far. I tried to do that because if it worked it'd be game changing; but it seems every question I ask it, I get half truths and lies back. Its impossible to figure out what is and isn't true either, because the LLM says everything with such a certainty. I end up having to research everything it says again to figure out what to trust. Sometimes it's good to get a foothold in a subject, but that's all I've been successful with so far.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#20

Post by OJFord »

When I've tried to use it myself for verifiable things (i.e. code basically) I've had the 'confidently wrong' experience.

When I've seen colleagues visibly use it (i.e. mentioned in commit messages) that confidence has rubbed off on them.

Given that, why would I believe it when asking something medical, legal, historical, or otherwise outside of my domain or that I can't somehow verify?

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