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The housing market is starting to crack – Sellers are cutting prices

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Re: The housing market is starting to crack – Sellers are cutting prices

#71
post #55
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that baby boomers are reaching an age at which they're starting to pass away. What else to do with an inherited house than either live in it or sell it?

Rent it?

Renting is not a new option, and it is not trivial. Is there a reason to assume a higher rate of inheritors to rent rather than sell?

Re: The housing market is starting to crack – Sellers are cutting prices

#72

I've thought a lot about this, without finding any comprehensive solution. The housing market suffers from inadequate regulation, allowing speculation and profit-making through the mass purchase of properties and subsequent rental hikes. We need safeguards against such practices; perhaps home ownership shouldn't just be a right but a condition actively safeguarded and championed.

I don’t know, none of the houses I want to buy are in neighborhoods where any substantial portion of the stock is available to rent. Is there evidence of this kind of “profit-making”? (Not disputing just no experience personally).

Of course landlords want to make money. Some make a lot and some make a little. But only recently has "profit-making" become a dirty word.

Re: The housing market is starting to crack – Sellers are cutting prices

#73
post #66

Bring it on. I can't wait to buy a house in the next 6 months. People with money who want desperately out of the renting game don't care at all about 8% interest rates. But the investors and second home buyers sure do. This has been the biggest thing keeping me out of the market since 2020; the time pressure, not the prices. I just refuse to make a massive financial decision on the spot based on a 15 minute open hous…

> But the investors and second home buyers sure do. I'm curious about this, because from what I've heard, a lot of investors are incredibly happy with the higher interest rates as they're paying cash for a lot of homes, which has been squeezing real homeowners out of the market since they are able to shortcut by making offers on houses without requiring financing.

[deleted]

Re: The housing market is starting to crack – Sellers are cutting prices

#74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm seeing single-family houses going for $310k that should be going for maybe 2/3rds of that on a good day. I've been hearing a lot of "should be" talk like that recently - like folks complaining that people are paying $50k for a normal SUV that "should be" $30k or whatever. What are we basing "should be" on? Some affordability metric? Our gut feeling about what a comparable thing cost a few years ago? If I sold m…

It's a 60+ year-old single-family, single-garage home within eye (and more importantly, ear) shot of a major interstate highway next to the home of a man who has a number of city code violations due to the state of his property (think rank weeds, cracked paint, tires in the yard, etc.) in a major Midwestern city where the average household income is ~$56,000. When you consider who this kind of housing was built for -…

I'm looking out the window of my real estate office toward a neighborhood a lot like what you are describing - except our median income is abut $20K less and we aren't in the midwest. Those houses here would be within the same range you are talking about, and it's just basic supply+demand, plus the replacement cost. What does that same house cost today to build? It may not seem fair, but that's why even the "affordable" suburban tract housing in my area starts in the high-300s.

Re: The housing market is starting to crack – Sellers are cutting prices

#75
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing one more demographic that's a pretty big deal. California homeowners insulated from property tax due to prop 13.

California homeowners pay property tax and the rate goes up either with inflation or 2%. I'm guessing you think it should go up with the market value of the home. Thank god it doesn't or I would have had to sell instead of being able to give my kids a stable home for the past 18 years.

Maybe the price has upward pressure because the tax increases are capped. Fewer home sellers, less supply of homes, high demand, hence higher prices.

Besides, local government expenses have to be covered somehow. It’s just putting it on new homeowners who are not beneficiaries of the capped property tax from years ago.

Governments should not be dictating prices, they should be influencing supply and demand in order to affect prices. Doing it the “easy” way will simply distort supply and demand and the pain will still have to be felt somewhere.

For example, if the goal is lower property taxes, then the solution is lower local government spending / more efficiencies / more population to spread fixed costs over.

Re: The housing market is starting to crack – Sellers are cutting prices

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In many first world capitals, it's actually a common investment to buy real estate and not rent it out at all. The running costs are lower, there's no maintenance costs and no one pesters you about miscellaneous issues. All these people do is sit on the homes and wait for them to go up in price while everyone else struggles to find a place to live. Them not renting out reduces supply which further drives up prices. Y…

I could also believe this, but it’s not the claim OP made, which was about rental hikes.

While I see what you mean, these two phenomena are really two sides of the same coin. If I'd wager a guess, I'd say OP is probably referring to cases such as [0]. Regardless of which mechanism is at play though, the end result is the same, either rising prices through collusion or rising prices through lowered supply. Both also benefit anyone else doing it the other way, so it results in highly lopsided markets.

[0] https://www.axios.com/2023/11/02/dc-housing-rent-antitrust-l...

Re: The housing market is starting to crack – Sellers are cutting prices

#77
post #66

Bring it on. I can't wait to buy a house in the next 6 months. People with money who want desperately out of the renting game don't care at all about 8% interest rates. But the investors and second home buyers sure do. This has been the biggest thing keeping me out of the market since 2020; the time pressure, not the prices. I just refuse to make a massive financial decision on the spot based on a 15 minute open hous…

> But the investors and second home buyers sure do. I'm curious about this, because from what I've heard, a lot of investors are incredibly happy with the higher interest rates as they're paying cash for a lot of homes, which has been squeezing real homeowners out of the market since they are able to shortcut by making offers on houses without requiring financing.

The higher the risk-free rate goes, the less attractive housing is as an investment. Treasuries don’t require maintenance and upkeep.

Re: The housing market is starting to crack – Sellers are cutting prices

#78

Bring it on. I can't wait to buy a house in the next 6 months. People with money who want desperately out of the renting game don't care at all about 8% interest rates. But the investors and second home buyers sure do. This has been the biggest thing keeping me out of the market since 2020; the time pressure, not the prices. I just refuse to make a massive financial decision on the spot based on a 15 minute open hous…

When fed lowers rates there will be another massive boom, so prepare for it!

Re: The housing market is starting to crack – Sellers are cutting prices

#79

Unless the housing supply increases this will just be a temporary thing. As long as people are able to make their mortgage payments they typically won't sell their homes at a loss (even if their equity is negative). Some people will always be forced to sell due to life events and that's what will set current market comps. Since mortgage rates have recently spiked upwards people who need a mortgage to buy a home can a…

There are a record number of housing units under construction: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNDCONTSA/

Re: The housing market is starting to crack – Sellers are cutting prices

#80
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing one more demographic that's a pretty big deal. California homeowners insulated from property tax due to prop 13.

California homeowners pay property tax and the rate goes up either with inflation or 2%. I'm guessing you think it should go up with the market value of the home. Thank god it doesn't or I would have had to sell instead of being able to give my kids a stable home for the past 18 years.

California homeowners pay property tax on the "assessed value", i.e. of the home. This value generally starts at the purchase price and then goes up with the lower of either inflation or 2%. The tax rate is the same for everyone but will be on different values. The rate is 1%, going to the State of California, and usually additional, but lesser, local taxes.
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