Live data from Hacker News

US Smartphone Shipments Decline 19% in Q3 2023 as More Americans Delay Upgrade

counterpointresearch.com

281–290 of 339 posts

Re: US Smartphone Shipments Decline 19% in Q3 2023 as More Americans Delay Upgrade

#281
post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same here, I am genuinely shocked they discontinued the mini series. Will there be another version of the SE maybe?

As another person in the same boat, the problem is that people don't buy them. Like it or not, we're in the minority.

That's only a problem because of monopolies.

A very small minority of Americans buy pizza in Columbus, Ohio. That doesn't mean there aren't any pizza sellers there.

Re: US Smartphone Shipments Decline 19% in Q3 2023 as More Americans Delay Upgrade

#282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Total cost of ownership for evs is vastly lower than ices. The number of mechanical parts is two orders of magnitude less for an ev.

Do you track your car expenses? I do. Here are numbers from 2011-2018 for a used 2003 car: Gas: $7200 Maintenance/Repairs: $2300 Note that maintenance includes things you'd do for EVs as well (e.g. new tires). That's $9500 in 7 years. Total spent on the car (including purchase price): $18500. The extra cost of a comparably sized EV is significantly more than my gas and repair costs. The numbers for my other cars is s…

You got really lucky on your maintenance then. Unless you're doing the oil changes yourself, those alone should have run you at least $1,000 (and probably more because you should have been changing your air filters too). And it sounds like you never had to do brakes (which come up sooner on ICE cars because EVs have regenerative braking).

But to be clear you're an outlier. Most 2003 cars can't get away with such low maintenance costs.

Re: US Smartphone Shipments Decline 19% in Q3 2023 as More Americans Delay Upgrade

#283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except no one knows in what shape batteries will be in 10 years (current 10yo evs are no comparison). Usually there is a 8y guarantee on battery packs but wonder what that covers. Replacing batteries will be overly costly, if you can even get the parts and a mechanic to do it for you.

I first heard this fear mongering in 2001 when I bought a Prius. It wasn’t true then, and it’s extra not true now, over 20 years later.

Prius has 1.3kWh Ni-Cad battery, slightly bigger than my bicycle battery.

Re: US Smartphone Shipments Decline 19% in Q3 2023 as More Americans Delay Upgrade

#284
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is what EVs are for. Replace the battery every few years and replace your car whenever a new incompatible plug standard comes out.

Total cost of ownership for evs is vastly lower than ices. The number of mechanical parts is two orders of magnitude less for an ev.

[dead]

Re: US Smartphone Shipments Decline 19% in Q3 2023 as More Americans Delay Upgrade

#285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you track your car expenses? I do. Here are numbers from 2011-2018 for a used 2003 car: Gas: $7200 Maintenance/Repairs: $2300 Note that maintenance includes things you'd do for EVs as well (e.g. new tires). That's $9500 in 7 years. Total spent on the car (including purchase price): $18500. The extra cost of a comparably sized EV is significantly more than my gas and repair costs. The numbers for my other cars is s…

You got really lucky on your maintenance then. Unless you're doing the oil changes yourself, those alone should have run you at least $1,000 (and probably more because you should have been changing your air filters too). And it sounds like you never had to do brakes (which come up sooner on ICE cars because EVs have regenerative braking). But to be clear you're an outlier. Most 2003 cars can't get away with such low…

> You got really lucky on your maintenance then.

I keep hearing this. I've apparently been lucky for 20 years and with 4 cars. I'm a really lucky guy.

Or, perhaps, I research which cars are reliable, and get a good mechanic to check them out before I buy them.

> Unless you're doing the oil changes yourself, those alone should have run you at least $1,000

In that time period, an oil change was $20-30. Yes, it costs a lot more for some cars (e.g. $80 for one of my other cars). Also, if you did it every 3 months or 3000 miles you've bought into the propaganda. Do it on the schedule specified in your car's manual. For all my cars, that's every 6 months, and 5000 or 6000 miles. For heavy usage (10,000 miles for non-heavy, but almost everyone falls into the "heavy" category).

Oh, and I'm not a big car guy. I know almost nothing about doing maintenance myself (other than adding wiper fluid). I do whatever the mechanic recommends. Find a good mechanic, and stay away from official dealerships.

> And it sounds like you never had to do brakes

On the car I quoted, I did. In 2014. Cost me under $420.

> Most 2003 cars can't get away with such low maintenance costs.

That car got totaled in 2018. So I replaced it with another 2003 car of similar miles as the one that was totaled. In the last 5 years I've spent $3000 on maintenance/repairs. That's more than the 8 years prior, but some of it is just due to inflation and labor costs. Oil change costs, for example, almost doubled.

Gas costs should be higher per year because gas is more expensive and the car I replaced it with is a lot less efficient. But at the same time, COVID brought gas expenses down (less driving). I average $1000/year in gas costs. I expect it will go up soon due to needing to drive more now.

> But to be clear you're an outlier.

Sure, I'm an outlier in that I actually track my expenses. Everyone I know who tracks auto expenses has turned out to be an outlier ;-)

Re: US Smartphone Shipments Decline 19% in Q3 2023 as More Americans Delay Upgrade

#286
post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As another person in the same boat, the problem is that people don't buy them. Like it or not, we're in the minority.

That's only a problem because of monopolies. A very small minority of Americans buy pizza in Columbus, Ohio. That doesn't mean there aren't any pizza sellers there.

Pizza parlors are ubiquitous because it takes 50 cents of ingredients, 5 minutes, and an elementary school education to make one. It’s not a very relevant analogy.

There is only so much variation to the size of people’s hands. The mini makes a big battery life and visibility sacrifice to save space.

It’s not much different to the reasons why two-door sports cars have fallen out of favor. They can only do one thing well.

Phones have to do so much for the typical person, they’re not just basic communication devices, and having one that can’t do everything all day is a big compromise.

I had a 12 mini and 13 mini and I can understand why they were discontinued. I loved them at first, but the trade off ultimately doesn’t make sense. I bet you there were very few repeat customers.

I have small fingers and it was hard to type on. Looking at the screen was straining, and it would be worse if I was older or had worse eyesight. The battery life got a little better for the 13 mini but I got range anxiety and had to charge before the day ended almost every day.

Re: US Smartphone Shipments Decline 19% in Q3 2023 as More Americans Delay Upgrade

#287
post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IIRC, the mini versions skimped on the camera. That’s the only reason I didn’t buy one. I preferred the small size but wanted the best camera offered.

Speaking of, I don't understand why camera quality is the selling point that so many people glom onto. I get why it's useful to some. But I have to imagine we've crossed the point where "better camera" stopped being noticeable to the masses?

Literally all my family photos are taken on a phone. I don’t own another camera. What is so hard to understand?

I am no photography expert but if you skip 3-4 generations of iPhone you are guaranteed a very substantial upgrade every time. The improvements are visible and obvious.

Re: US Smartphone Shipments Decline 19% in Q3 2023 as More Americans Delay Upgrade

#288
post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be nice to have full LIDAR based 3D scanning on phones, one for better imaging and two to provide datasets for 2D to 3D LLMs.

You have to admit that is an extremely niche requirement.

Oh yeah

Re: US Smartphone Shipments Decline 19% in Q3 2023 as More Americans Delay Upgrade

#289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

High speed USB-C cables work fine with low speed devices. Just at lower speed.

So why is the stated main benefit lost?

The benefit is that you can use any USB-C cable for charging. You can also use any USB-C cable for data transfer at low speed, which is what the iPhone supports.

With iPhone Pro, you can transfer at low-speed with any cable or high speed with USB3 cable. But most people would rather carry a cheap, light, 6 ft charging cable than heavy, expensive, 3ft for the rare case of transferring data.

Re: US Smartphone Shipments Decline 19% in Q3 2023 as More Americans Delay Upgrade

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People hate the short battery life, and all the high-powered parts of a premium phone (to the extent that they do take more power) are thus even worse suited to the small battery. Incidentally, I'm starting to want something with less battery; mine lasts over two days, so it seems like I should get something smaller. Problem is, from what I understand, iPhones still do slow charging in 2023. Re:iPhone SE, the newest…

> iPhones still do slow charging in 2023. I'm not sure where you got this impression, they've supported fast charging since the iPhone 8 in 2017, which could do 50% of the battery in 30 mins, with the appropriate charger. Now which fast charging spec is a different question.

Thanks, that's faster than I realized.
Post reply on HN