At this point, Intel's roadmap seems unreasonably optimistic. They haven't launched processors with Intel 4 yet. They're set to be released December 14th, but we aren't seeing Intel launch a full line of processors with Intel 4.
If Intel 4 is coming in December 2023 in a very limited way, are we really expecting 20A in 2024?
I'd love for Intel's roadmap to be real, but it just doesn't seem likely. I guess it also depends on what you mean by "in 2024". For example, Intel 4 came to us "in Q3 2022"[1], but we aren't seeing any processors until 17 months later. If Intel 20A comes to us "in Q3 2024", but we don't see any processors out until December 2025, that's a big difference. It's an especially big difference if it means that it's in processors in December 2025 in a very limited way.
TSMC's 3nm tech is shipping in Apple Silicon CPUs at high volume.
Intel seems to say "Intel 20A Q3 2024", but that isn't when we get CPUs with that tech. Maybe it's when their teams can create limited volume samples? Realistically, it seems like there's 18+ months between Intel's roadmap and the CPUs getting into something you can buy.
Again, I'd love Intel's roadmap to be accurate, but if Intel 4 started "in Q3 2022" and we're getting limited laptops with it in December 2023 or January 2024, that seems like Intel saying that they've gotten to a point well before they can actually get that into our hands.
[1] https://www.xda-developers.com/intel-roadmap-2025-explainer/