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Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

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Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#471

Post by hollerith »

m_a_g wrote: post #468
JoshTriplett wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> seize power via regulatory capture Not even a little bit. "Stop" is not regulatory capture. Some large AI companies are attempting to twist "stop" into "be careful, as only we can". The actual way to stop the existential risk is to stop. https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1719777049576128542 > the push to close off AI with farcical licensing and reporting requirements "Stop" is not "licensing and reporting requ…

Could you explain to me how AGI is an existential threat to humanity? All the arguments I've read so far feel so far-fetched it's unbelievable. It's in the order of making an AGI and making it control the Pentagon (!?).

The AGI does not need to control the Pentagon. It might for example invent novel technologies that you and I cannot even imagine because we are much less capable at inventing new technologies than the AGI will be.

If members of an alien civilization much more advanced than our own suddenly appeared in orbit around Earth, would that not be dangerous?

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#472

Post by germandiago »

lazzlazzlazz wrote: post #35

The way incumbents are attempting to seize power via regulatory capture, using "X-Risk" and fantastical claims of sudden human extinction is maybe one of the most cynical ploys in the history of tech so far. Open source is one of our greatest gifts, and the push to close off AI with farcical licensing and reporting requirements (which will undoubtedly become more strict) is absurd. The laws we have already cover male…

True. We receive warnings all the time but I think what these people are afraid of is actually losing their power.

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#473

Post by [deleted] »

m_a_g wrote: post #468
JoshTriplett wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> seize power via regulatory capture Not even a little bit. "Stop" is not regulatory capture. Some large AI companies are attempting to twist "stop" into "be careful, as only we can". The actual way to stop the existential risk is to stop. https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1719777049576128542 > the push to close off AI with farcical licensing and reporting requirements "Stop" is not "licensing and reporting requ…

Could you explain to me how AGI is an existential threat to humanity? All the arguments I've read so far feel so far-fetched it's unbelievable. It's in the order of making an AGI and making it control the Pentagon (!?).

[deleted]

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#474

Post by Workaccount2 »

patcon wrote: post #384

I need to resist all this regulatory resistance here, spoken amongst tech people. No, Yann. I am FULLY in support of drastic measures to mitigate and control AI research for the time being. I have no vested stake in any of the companies. I lived for a year in a building that hosted several AI events per week. I'm not ignorant This is the only territory where humanity is mounting a conversation about a REAL response t…

I fully recognize the danger AI presents, and believe that it will mostly likely end up being terrible for humanity.

But thanks to my own internal analysis ability and the anonymity of the internet, I am also willing to speak candidly. And I think I speak for many people in the tech community, whether they realize it or not. So here we go:

My objective judgement of the situation is heavily adulterated by my incredible desire for a fully fledged hyper intelligent AI. I so badly want to see this realized that my brain's base level take on the situation is "Don't worry about the consequences, just think about how incredibly fucking cool it would be."

Outwardly I wouldn't say this, but it is my gut feeling/desire. I think for many people, especially those who have pursued AI development as their life's work, how can you spend your life working to get to the garden of Eden, and then not eat the fruit? Even just a taste.

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#475

Post by m_a_g »

hollerith wrote: post #471
m_a_g wrote: post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you explain to me how AGI is an existential threat to humanity? All the arguments I've read so far feel so far-fetched it's unbelievable. It's in the order of making an AGI and making it control the Pentagon (!?).

The AGI does not need to control the Pentagon. It might for example invent novel technologies that you and I cannot even imagine because we are much less capable at inventing new technologies than the AGI will be. If members of an alien civilization much more advanced than our own suddenly appeared in orbit around Earth, would that not be dangerous?

That I understand, but my thinking automatically goes to control and restrictions. A superintelligent AGI that's as restricted as chatgpt in terms of what it can actually control seems... not so existentially dangerous? In that scenario, that actual problem would rise by not-so-smart humans listening to that AGI blindly, no?

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#476

Post by EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK »

JoshTriplett wrote: post #52
lazzlazzlazz wrote: post #35

The way incumbents are attempting to seize power via regulatory capture, using "X-Risk" and fantastical claims of sudden human extinction is maybe one of the most cynical ploys in the history of tech so far. Open source is one of our greatest gifts, and the push to close off AI with farcical licensing and reporting requirements (which will undoubtedly become more strict) is absurd. The laws we have already cover male…

> seize power via regulatory capture Not even a little bit. "Stop" is not regulatory capture. Some large AI companies are attempting to twist "stop" into "be careful, as only we can". The actual way to stop the existential risk is to stop. https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1719777049576128542 > the push to close off AI with farcical licensing and reporting requirements "Stop" is not "licensing and reporting requ…

What stop? Will Kim Jong Un stop? Hell no. There is no stop, the genie is out of the bottle.

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#477

Post by germandiago »

CuriouslyC wrote: post #413
toth wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no scenario where climate change leads to human extinction. Worst case scenario is global population goes down by a single digit percentage. Horrible, horrible stuff, but not extinction. And most likely scenarios are not nearly that bad. Nuclear war, if the worst nuclear winter predictions are correct, could be a lot worse but there would still be some survivors. Unaligned ASI though, could actually make us…

There is a scenario. The climate has been buffering global warming, and as its ability to do that fails, the rate of temperature increase accelerates along with many extreme climate events. This rapid acceleration and series of catastrophes causes a combination of mass migrations along with unprecedented crop failures. First world countries are destabilized by sky high food prices and the mass influx of migrants, lea…

I always hear all this. Russia has thr biggest surface in the world for a country. A big part of it is frozen... Is that... bad? To give just an example and from my extremely limited knowledge on the topic.

But it is a topic that is extremely biased towards some interests anyways

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#478

Post by shoubidouwah »

upupupandaway wrote: post #182
JoshTriplett wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> seize power via regulatory capture Not even a little bit. "Stop" is not regulatory capture. Some large AI companies are attempting to twist "stop" into "be careful, as only we can". The actual way to stop the existential risk is to stop. https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1719777049576128542 > the push to close off AI with farcical licensing and reporting requirements "Stop" is not "licensing and reporting requ…

The fact that anyone may be taking Eliezer Yudkowsky seriously on this topic is mind-blowing to me. Simply mind-blowing. To imagine that anybody, including the UN, would have any power to collective put a stop to the development of AI globally is a laughable idea. The UN cannot agree to release a letter on Israel-Hamas, imagine policing the ENTIRE WORLD and shutting down AI development when necessary. We can't stop c…

One good way of staying to a prudent course / halting haphazard - winner takes all progress is to use social tech for it. In particular, there is an interesting possibility: the top researchers who drive the AI scenario all kind of know each other, and can self-organize in an international union, with pooled resources for strikes. AI revolution is dependent on simultaneous progress and cross capitalization of good ideas: a well timed strike of a good portion of research worldwide can stop things from moving on pretty effectively.

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#479

Post by arisAlexis »

mliker wrote: post #310
arisAlexis wrote: post #236

There were 3 Turing winners. The majority 2/3 Hinton and Bengio have been very outspoken about catastrophic risks to humanity. The minority 1 Lecunn who happens to be the only one on fat payroll from FB and with a vested interest goes public every day proclaiming humanity should trust his judgment. Let's bet humanity on this one person?

Andrew Ng and many other AI researchers have also voiced their opinion that AI should be open source.

Ok so in 50-50 chance instead of the precaution principle we go all in on the roulette?

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#480

Post by arisAlexis »

logicchains wrote: post #410
arisAlexis wrote: post #236

There were 3 Turing winners. The majority 2/3 Hinton and Bengio have been very outspoken about catastrophic risks to humanity. The minority 1 Lecunn who happens to be the only one on fat payroll from FB and with a vested interest goes public every day proclaiming humanity should trust his judgment. Let's bet humanity on this one person?

Bengio only won a Turing award for ideas he stole from Schmidhuber, and Schmidhuber is very anti-regulation.

Bengio is the highest h-index CS scientist currently. If he says we may all die from AI, I would listen to him.
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