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Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

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191–200 of 873 posts

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#191
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People don't want to live at the subsistence level, and we're not evenly remotely close to having enough resources to satisfy everybody's wants. What people want is defined by society. Somehow some people want to be alone in a 2 tons EV, a 200 sqm mansion for a family of 4 and retire at 40. Others are tremendously happy with a much, much less resources intensive lifestyles. You would also need to define what is par…

>What people want is defined by society. Somehow some people want to be alone in a 2 tons EV, a 200 sqm mansion for a family of 4 and retire at 40. Others are tremendously happy with a much, much less resources intensive lifestyles. You just undermined your own assertion. If what people want was defined by society, then everybody would want the same things. But in fact as you stated they don't; some people want a lot…

We don't have a fully globalised culture yet, what an average American wants isn't what an average Japanese wants. Of course even then, there are disparities and outliers, but we can't really overlook that if you "want" an SUV or an Apple Watch, that's quite likely going to be because the people around you find it valuable.

I'd go even a bit further as to say that what is important is probably what people "need", not "want". Apparently we mostly "want" as much as we can have anyway, because that used to be helpful for not dying before being able to reproduce enough.

> because that's also the part of the population that owns most of the guns

That made me giggle

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> seize power via regulatory capture Not even a little bit. "Stop" is not regulatory capture. Some large AI companies are attempting to twist "stop" into "be careful, as only we can". The actual way to stop the existential risk is to stop. https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1719777049576128542 > the push to close off AI with farcical licensing and reporting requirements "Stop" is not "licensing and reporting requ…

The fact that anyone may be taking Eliezer Yudkowsky seriously on this topic is mind-blowing to me. Simply mind-blowing. To imagine that anybody, including the UN, would have any power to collective put a stop to the development of AI globally is a laughable idea. The UN cannot agree to release a letter on Israel-Hamas, imagine policing the ENTIRE WORLD and shutting down AI development when necessary. We can't stop c…

My estimation of Eliezer Yudkowsky just dropped a notch — not because I don't take the existential threat posed by AI seriously — but because he seems to think that global coordination and control is an even remotely possible strategy.

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Suppose we did have an AI model that could with near certainty predict both the future cash flows of a company and future interest rates. You could very easily calculate the discounted cash flow and determine the fair share price today or at any point in the future. The thing about trading is that, ultimately, prices are not determined by information, but how the hive mind interprets that information. And in practi…

it's a Keynes quote, but yeah.

My bad, corrected!

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find this comically unlikely.

What makes it unlikely?

Because everyone getting richer from removing uncertainty isn't a risk to start with.

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Stop" is not regulatory capture. "Stop" is a fiction that exists exclusively inside your head. Unless your solution anticipates a planet wide GULAG system run by a global government your "stop" is infeasible.

His solution -- assuming it's the same as the one proposed by Yudkowsky, who he quotes -- is launching air strikes against data centers hosting AI computation. So yeah, imaginary.

Ironically, it seems the only way to stop someone from building an omnipotent AI that could destroy the world is to build an omnipotent AI under your control faster than any of the people you need to destroy. If you believe in that sort of thing.

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The aim is to stop it from becoming easy. The drug war would look very different if good cocaine was only produced in one country with extremely costly chemistry machines from one company.

If good cocaine was only produced in one country with extremely costly machines, a good-enough alternative would appear almost immediately. This has happened millions of times in the history of humanity, I refuse to believe that people haven't learned this lesson.

> I refuse to believe that people haven't learned this lesson

Oh, I believe they absolutely haven't, when not having learnt it buys them money and influence. As for the bulk of the population, they will accept whatever the corporate media tell them to.

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that anyone may be taking Eliezer Yudkowsky seriously on this topic is mind-blowing to me. Simply mind-blowing. To imagine that anybody, including the UN, would have any power to collective put a stop to the development of AI globally is a laughable idea. The UN cannot agree to release a letter on Israel-Hamas, imagine policing the ENTIRE WORLD and shutting down AI development when necessary. We can't stop c…

My estimation of Eliezer Yudkowsky just dropped a notch — not because I don't take the existential threat posed by AI seriously — but because he seems to think that global coordination and control is an even remotely possible strategy.

He actually doesn't think it's viable, but thinks its the only card left to play.

He's pretty sure that human civilization will be extinct this century.

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> seize power via regulatory capture Not even a little bit. "Stop" is not regulatory capture. Some large AI companies are attempting to twist "stop" into "be careful, as only we can". The actual way to stop the existential risk is to stop. https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1719777049576128542 > the push to close off AI with farcical licensing and reporting requirements "Stop" is not "licensing and reporting requ…

The fact that anyone may be taking Eliezer Yudkowsky seriously on this topic is mind-blowing to me. Simply mind-blowing. To imagine that anybody, including the UN, would have any power to collective put a stop to the development of AI globally is a laughable idea. The UN cannot agree to release a letter on Israel-Hamas, imagine policing the ENTIRE WORLD and shutting down AI development when necessary. We can't stop c…

Sure, it's not likely to work, but Yud doesn't know of an idea with a better chance of working.

If you agree with him on the likelihood of superintelligence in the next few decades and the difficulty of value alignment, what course of action would you suggest?

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