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Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

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161–170 of 873 posts

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#161

I think Yann is probably wrong. He refuses to engage earnestly with the “doomer” arguments. The same type of motivated reasoning could also be attributed to himself and Meta’s financial goals - it’s not a persuasive framing. The attempts I’ve seen from him to discuss the issue that aren’t just name calling are things like saying he knows smart people and they aren’t president - or even that his cat is pretty smart an…

The "doomer" arguments can be dismissed relatively easily by one logical consideration.

In each country there is one group far more dangerous than any other. This group tends to have 'income' in the billions to hundreds of billions of dollars. And this money is exclusively directed towards finding new ways to kill people, destroy governments, and generally enable one country to forcibly impose their will on others, with complete legal immunity. And this group is the same one that will not only have unfettered, but likely exclusive and bleeding edge access to "restricted" AI models, regardless of whatever rules or treaties we publicly claim to adopt.

So who exactly are 'they' trying to protect me from? My neighbor? A random street thug? Maybe a sociopath or group of such? Okay, but it's not like there's some secret trick to MacGyver a few toothpicks and a tube of toothpaste into a WMD, at least not beyond the 'tricks' already widely available with a quick web (or even library) search. In a restricted scenario the groups that are, by far, the most likely to push us to doomsday type scenarios will retain completely unrestricted access to AI-like systems. The whole argument of protecting society is just utterly cynical and farcical.

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#162
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you need cutting edge models if you can solve your problems with less?

They are required if there is an arms-race between actors wielding models. For example, to detect increasingly authentic deepfakes.

Sure but the clandestine actors most of us worry about don't need that level of sophistication.

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Intelligence needed to be existentially threatening to all human life <<<<<<< intelligence necessary to survey the totality of atoms and particles in the universe. The former is still very possible.

LessWrongers seem to fear a superintelligence that was 95%+ effective at persuading/manipulating humans to achieve whatever its ends were. But this would require the AI being able to predict the future to a degree that wouldn't be remotely possible given the computational power available to it, due to exponentially increasing difficulty.

This is true if and only if human intelligence is anywhere close to any theoretical maximums. I propose an alternate hypothesis: human intelligence is weak and easy to exploit. The only reason it doesn't happen more (and it already happens a lot!) is that we're too stupid to do it reliably.

Consider the amount of compute needed to beat the strongest chess grandmaster that humanity has ever produced, pretty much 100% of the time: a tiny speck of silicon powered by a small battery. That is not what a species limited by cognitive scaling laws looks like.

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#167
post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Stop" is not regulatory capture. "Stop" is a fiction that exists exclusively inside your head. Unless your solution anticipates a planet wide GULAG system run by a global government your "stop" is infeasible.

If tomorrow TSMC, NVIDIA and ASML get destroyed in the next 9/11, it's "stopped". It's completely possible.

It's delayed at best.

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#168

The way incumbents are attempting to seize power via regulatory capture, using "X-Risk" and fantastical claims of sudden human extinction is maybe one of the most cynical ploys in the history of tech so far. Open source is one of our greatest gifts, and the push to close off AI with farcical licensing and reporting requirements (which will undoubtedly become more strict) is absurd. The laws we have already cover male…

It points out to the continuing digital illiteracy of large parts of society and, unfortunately, decision making centers.

Breaking down any complex knowledge domain so that people can make informed decisions is not easy. There is also an entrenched incentive for domain experts to keep the "secret sauce" secret even if it amounts to very little. So far nothing new versus how practically any specialized sector works.

The difference with information technology (of which AI is but the current perceived cutting edge) is that it touches everything. Society is built on communication. If algorithms will intervene in that floe we cannot afford to play the usual stupid control games with something so fundamental.

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#170
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And... How do you do that? Seriously, people have been talking about stoping CO2 emissions for what, 50 years? We've barely made progress there.

With threat of military intervention. People have been talking about curtailing carbon emissions for 50 years, but they haven't been serious about it. Being serious doesn't look like saying "oh shoot, we said we will... try to keep emissions down, but we didn't... even try; sorry...". Being serous looks like "stop now, or we will eminent domain your data centre from under you via an emergency court order, or failing…

Since when are military spooks and political opportunists better at deciding on our technological future than startups and corporations? The degree of global policing and surveillance necessary to fully prevent secret labs from working on AI would be mind-boggling. How would you ensure all government actors are sticking to the same safety standards rather than seizing power by implementing AI hastily? This problem has long been known as quis custodiet ipsos custodes - "who guards the guards themselves?".
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